- The Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision survey put Talarico ahead of Paxton, 63% to 30%.
- The Center for Immigration Studies estimated an annual interior-removal rate of 180,544 through August 5, 2026.
- DHS said nearly 1.2 million people had been deported as of October.
Checked against DHS
Democrat Adam Hamilton won majority-Hispanic Seward County, Kansas, by 13 points in the November 3, 2026, midterms, after ICE operations disrupted local meatpacking plants earlier this year. Donald Trump had carried the county by 39 points in 2024.
That reversal puts Republicans’ exposure to a Hispanic backlash over mass deportations in view. It does not show how Hispanic residents voted, or establish that enforcement caused the change.
The elections involved different candidates and offices. No county-level breakdown here identifies voters’ ethnicity or their reasons for voting. One result cannot measure the national effect.
Polling shows immigration could cost Republicans support, not how many votes it cost
A Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision poll found Hispanic voters favored Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton, 63% to 30%, in the Texas Senate race. The same survey put Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters at 33%.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they were less likely to support a candidate who backed Trump’s deportation policy. That measures stated intention, not ballots cast. The poll does not establish how many votes the policy shifted.
A separate nationwide survey put Democrats 27 points ahead on immigration. Nearly 20 percent of Hispanic voters named immigration as a top concern, up from 6 percent the previous month. That finding signals a change in stated priorities, not a tally of election outcomes.
Two polling averages showed close Texas contests. RealClearPolling’s average gave Talarico a 49% to 46.5% lead over Paxton, while Gov. Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 2.3 points, 49.7% to 47.4%.
A South Texas canvasser identified as Guerrero described the enforcement he had encountered:
“The ICE enforcement that we've been seeing here in south Texas has been brutal.”
The figures and testimony give candidates reasons to watch voter response. They do not isolate immigration from other concerns, including prices and the economy.
The removal figures count different things
The Center for Immigration Studies estimated that DHS removed people from the interior at an annual rate of 180,544 between January 20, 2025, and August 5, 2026. It put the annualized rate for fiscal 2026 through August 5 at 209,212.
Those are estimates of interior removals, not the same measure as the department’s overall deportation count. DHS said nearly 1.2 million people had been deported as of October. Its release, dated November 3, 2026, described the campaign as fulfilling the administration’s promises to secure the border and remove people unlawfully present.
The distinction matters when comparing enforcement claims. A nationwide deportation total cannot be substituted for an annual estimate of removals from inside the country.
Opposition to enforcement does not guarantee a Democratic vote
In Little Havana, resident Dayamis Hernandez voiced reservations about both parties. She said she did not want to support Democrats because of fears they might be socialists, but also did not want to be pulled toward the extreme right.
Ricardo Rauseo, national press secretary for Somos Votantes PAC, said conversations with voters pointed to frustration with Republicans without automatic support for Democrats. He said voters were looking for candidates who presented a vision for the economy.
That tension complicates claims that enforcement alone explains shifting votes. Some Hispanic voters object to particular tactics while also weighing border security, prices and candidates’ broader positions.
Hernandez’s hesitation remains part of the picture: “But I also don't want to be dragged into the extreme right wing, so I find myself not wanting to go one way or the other.”
