- The column says immigrants hold roughly one in four construction jobs in Arizona.
- Its EPI scenario does not specify a deportee count or exact years.
Miranda Schubert and Rodrigo Dorador warned in a guest opinion published November 4, 2026, that mass deportations could worsen Arizona’s housing crisis by disrupting construction. The column appeared in the Arizona Daily Star. It presents an argument, not a change to immigration or housing policy.
The authors say the risk runs from workers to project costs and housing supply. They do not quantify how much rents or home prices might change.
Schubert is Tucson Councilmember for Ward 6; Dorador is an Arizona-based affordable housing developer. Schubert and Dorador’s warning concerns Arizona households, builders and local officials. The projected effects are conditional.
The column says immigrants fill roughly one in four construction jobs in Arizona. If workers leave or fear reporting to work, the authors argue, builders could lose experienced crews.
That could slow construction schedules. Delays can add interest on construction loans and other costs while contractors compete for fewer available workers.
Affordable projects have little financial slack, the authors say. They write:
Affordable housing developments are particularly vulnerable because their financing leaves little room for unexpected expenses.
The job estimates describe different measures and scenarios
| Measure | Figure in the column | What it describes |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona construction jobs | approximately 60,000, or 22% of the workforce | EPI estimate under a large-scale, multi-year deportation scenario |
| Jobs across metro areas | approximately 668,000 across 86 metro areas | Brookings estimate associated with increased ICE arrests in 2025 |
| Arizona construction workers without permanent legal status | one in eight | Separate Pew statistic summarized in housing coverage |
| Modeled deportation spending | nearly $269 billion | EPI calculator estimate over its modeled period |
The 60,000 figure is a scenario estimate attributed to the Economic Policy Institute, not a count of jobs already lost. The column does not specify how many people the scenario assumes would be deported or the exact years it covers.
The Brookings figure covers 86 metro areas, not Arizona alone. The column describes the jobs as associated with increased arrests, which does not establish that the arrests caused every estimated loss. Its one-in-four figure refers broadly to immigrant construction workers; the separate one-in-eight statistic concerns workers without permanent legal status.
The authors cite the EPI calculator’s nearly $269 billion estimate, but do not identify the geographic scope of that modeled spending. None of these figures gives a projected Arizona rent increase, home-price change or number of homes that would go unbuilt.
The authors say less demand may not replace lost supply
The column takes up the argument that deportations might free housing by reducing demand. Schubert and Dorador counter that removing people who build homes could weaken supply, while uncertainty about whether residents can remain may deter investment in future projects.
They also reject the idea that other workers would readily fill the jobs. The Arizona Mirror’s housing tag page summarizes a separate view from experts that deportations are unlikely to substantially ease the national housing crisis. A post on X by Paul A. Szypula argues that ICE deportations are part of why rents are falling in some U.S. markets, while noting that oversupply is also a factor. The material cited does not quantify which effect would dominate in Arizona.
Households and city budgets could feel the disruption
Schubert and Dorador describe lost earnings and missed work as pressures on families trying to cover rent or mortgage payments. Schubert and Dorador recount cases in which children left school or put education aside to help keep their households housed. These are accounts in the opinion, not statewide measurements.
They argue that lower household spending could affect landlords and local businesses, then reduce city revenue. Tucson relies heavily on sales taxes for its general fund, the authors say. A squeeze could reach funding for streets, parks, transit and other services.
Schubert and Dorador call for lawful-status pathways, discussion by business leaders about workforce disruptions, and local economic assessments covering delays, revenue and family instability. Readers can examine the modeled costs through the EPI’s Cost of Deportation Calculator, the tool identified in the column.
