2026 Midterm Results by State: What They Mean for Immigration and ICE

NBC News projects that Democrats will control both chambers of Congress after the Nov. 3 midterms, ending Republican control of the House and Senate when the 120th Congress convenes Jan. 3, 2027. Counts were still incomplete on Nov. 4. NBC shows the Senate at 54 Democratic seats, 44 Republican and 2 uncalled (Alaska and Mississippi), and the House at 242 Democratic, 146 Republican and 47 uncalled. A House majority needs 218.

For immigrants and visa holders, the practical question is narrow: what can a Democratic Congress change? The short answer is oversight, funding fights and Senate confirmations, not day-to-day enforcement. ICE operations, visa processing, green cards and H-1B rules stay with the executive branch, and a new governor cannot change federal immigration law. This post sorts out what the results settle, what is still uncalled and which dates to watch.

The new balance of power

Before the election, Republicans held a 53-47 Senate majority, according to Wikipedia. In Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) are in a tight race that will go through ranked-choice tabulation. In Mississippi, Scott Colom (D) led Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) by 28 votes at about 97% counted. Two Republicans lead without an NBC projection: Tom Cotton in Arkansas (54.3% to 42.4%) and Julia Letlow in Louisiana (50.9% to 49.1%).

NBC’s model estimates 258 Democratic seats when counting ends. Among governors, NBC projects Democratic winners in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; Georgia, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio flip from Republican. Texas is also marked a flip, with Hinojosa leading Gov. Greg Abbott (R), 52.8% to 45.7%. The sections below list each Senate seat, governor, ballot measure and House flip.

Figures come from NBC News projections as of 3:20 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, with background from CBS, Time, PBS and Wikipedia snapshots. They are not state-certified.

How voters saw immigration

Immigration was not the top issue for most voters, but those who weighed in leaned against current enforcement. NBC’s exit poll shows 14% of voters naming immigration as the most important issue facing the country, and 62% disapproving of President Trump.

Latino voters were 10% of the electorate and chose Democrats 64% to 34% for Republicans. Our earlier look at how Hispanic voters were responding to mass deportations and ICE raids set out what to watch. Asian voters, 4% of the electorate, chose Democrats 71% to 28%; on midterms day we covered how H-1B uncertainty and the $100,000 fee weighed on Indian American voters. We have no exit-poll breakdown for naturalized citizens.

The seven Senate seats projected to flip

NBC projects seven Senate seats moving from Republican to Democratic hands. Senators do not run ICE or issue visas, but they vote on DHS funding, confirmations and immigration bills, so each seat matters for what Congress can pass or block.

The seven are listed below. Their stances come from the public record, with sources linked. All percentages are unofficial.

Iowa: Josh Turek (D)

Turek is projected to win the open seat (Joni Ernst did not run), with 50.5% to Ashley Hinson’s 46.4%, per Iowa Starting Line. In a May primary debate, he called immigration enforcement under Trump’s ICE “fundamentally wrong,” as KCRG reported. The same debate covered his 2024 vote for Iowa’s SF 2340 illegal re-entry law, which his primary rival Zach Wahls raised and Hinson later attacked. We did not find Turek’s own explanation of that vote.

Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D)

Hamilton is projected to flip the seat from incumbent Roger Marshall, according to NBC. At a September debate covered by KCUR, he called the approach taken since the Biden era “a disaster, too” and said he wants a year-round H-2A farm visa program. We found no sourced position from him on ICE.

Maine: Troy Jackson (D)

Jackson is projected to unseat Susan Collins, 53.6% to 46.3%; Collins conceded, according to Time. The Bangor Daily News reported in October that Jackson wants to abolish ICE and move its work to Customs and Border Protection, and calls ICE a rogue agency. That is the paper’s paraphrase, not a direct quote from Jackson.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D)

Cooper is projected to win the open seat held by the retiring Thom Tillis. As governor he vetoed 2022’s SB 101, which would have required sheriffs to check inmates’ immigration status and help ICE hold them.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D)

Brown is projected to win the special election for the seat Vance vacated, with 50.01% to Jon Husted’s 45.15% in unofficial returns. We should fund police departments better” (Signal Ohio).

South Carolina: Annie Andrews (D)

Annie Andrews (D) is projected to flip the seat.

Texas: James Talarico (D)

Talarico is projected to beat Ken Paxton, 55.1% to 43.0% with 97% counted, in unofficial returns. The Texas Tribune reports it would be the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988.

Alaska and Mississippi are uncalled; Arkansas and Louisiana lean Republican

In Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) remain unresolved. Ranked-choice tabulation could take weeks, and Axios reported on Oct. 23 on a Justice Department suit tied to certification if Sullivan loses. In Mississippi, Scott Colom (D) led Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) by 28 votes at about 97% counted, per NBC. The Colom campaign says roughly 15,000 affidavit ballots remain, and there is no automatic recount, only a court remedy.

Governors: where enforcement is actually decided

Governors cannot change who gets a visa, a green card or an H-1B. Those are federal, and so are ICE and CBP operations. What a governor controls is how much the state helps. That includes whether state police join 287(g) agreements (local deals that let officers carry out some ICE functions), whether the National Guard is deployed, how state-run detention is used, and whether the state backs sanctuary or anti-sanctuary policy.

The limits matter. A governor can direct state agencies and use the veto on their own. Rewriting statutes on 287(g) mandates, driver’s licenses or in-state tuition generally takes the legislature. Several of the new governors will face legislatures that were Republican-controlled before the election, and most post-election legislative control is not yet confirmed in our data.

NBC also projects Democratic holds in Michigan (Benson), Pennsylvania (Shapiro) and Wisconsin (Crowley). Pritzker leads in Illinois (59.9% to 36.8%), Hochul in New York (60% to 40%), Becerra in California (64% to 36% with 59% counted) and Hannah Pingree in Maine (54.9% to 37.0%), none yet labeled a projection. In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R) leads 45.5% to 43.0%. Each state’s section below covers what these results mean on the ground.

Ballot measures on citizenship, voting and cartels

Voters in several states weighed in on citizenship requirements for voting, voter ID and cartel designations. Every measure in our data is below. Results are unofficial and several are not final. “Passed (NBC)” means NBC reported approval; “ahead” means the yes vote leads in the sources we checked but we found no NBC call.

NBC reports voters approved citizenship requirements for voting in Alaska and South Dakota and a voter ID measure in Nevada. Citizenship measures in Arkansas, Kansas and West Virginia show 63.7% to 79.3% yes in other sources, but we could not confirm a call. These measures amend state constitutions, so they apply to state and local contests the state runs. Our data describes the measures but not each state’s existing law, so we do not assess how much changes in practice.

Colorado’s Amendment 81 on law enforcement coordination with DHS was at 45.0% yes and too early to call. For a related federal dispute over voter checks, see our coverage of the lawsuit challenging a USCIS voter initiative aimed at naturalized citizens.

The House: where seats changed hands

NBC’s House tally at 3:21 p.m. ET on Nov. 4 was 242 Democratic, 146 Republican and 47 uncalled. Only CA-22 and NJ-7 carry NBC projections in our check, so the rest are marked “leads”.

Still uncalled: Democrats lead or are reported ahead in MI-4, MI-7, NC-6, NC-13, NC-14, NY-17, OH-15, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10 and TX-23, but none is formally called in our data. In NY-17, Cait Conley (D) leads 52.1% to 47.8% at 96.7% counted; Rep. Mike Lawler conceded, but a Westchester scanner failure delayed counting. In ME-2, Paul LePage (R) leads 50.1% to 49.8% at 89.9% counted, which would be a Republican pickup of a Democratic-held seat.

Texas redistricting: PBS reports Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) leads in TX-34, a redrawn seat Trump carried by about 10 points. One report says AP projects Democrats winning four of five targeted Texas seats, but we could not confirm it: TX-15, TX-23 and TX-35 show Democratic leads in our data, and TX-28 is unverified.

State by state: what changes where you live

State officials shape how much state and local agencies help ICE, but visas, green cards, H-1B rules and ICE operations stay federal.

Below, each state shows who won or leads, what the candidates have said on immigration, which state laws already exist and what a governor can realistically change. Results are unofficial. “Projected” means NBC has projected the winner; “leads” means it has not.

Texas

Results. James Talarico (D) is projected to win the Senate seat over Ken Paxton (R), 55.1% to 43.0% with about 97% counted (unofficial returns). The Texas Tribune reports it would be the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988. Gina Hinojosa (D) leads Gov. Greg Abbott (R), 52.8% to 45.7% at 99% counted; NBC marks the seat as a flip but has not labeled it projected. Nathan Johnson (D) leads Mayes Middleton (R) for attorney general, 52.4% to 46.0% at 97.1% reporting in unofficial returns. In the House, Bobby Pulido (D) leads Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) in TX-15, Johnny Garcia (D) leads in TX-35 and Katy Padilla Stout (D) is reported ahead in TX-23; none is an NBC projection in our check. About 18% of Texans were born abroad, per a secondary ranking of 2024 Census data.

Where the candidates stand. Hinojosa has focused on ICE conduct and state resources.

California

Results. Xavier Becerra (D) leads Steve Hilton (R) for governor, 64.0% to 36.0% with about 59% counted, per California Today. Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) leads his re-election race with about 64%. Prop 39, a constitutional amendment on voter ID and citizenship checks, is trailing at 41.4% yes; NBC had it too early to call. In the House, Democrats lead in CA-22 (projected by NBC), CA-1 and CA-6; CA-3, CA-13, CA-45 and several other seats are uncalled. About 27.7% of Californians are foreign-born (Congressional Research Service, 2024).

Where the candidates stand. Becerra has not laid out a detailed immigration platform in sources we could verify. We found no Becerra comment on SB 54 specifically.

Florida

Results. Byron Donalds (R) leads David Jolly (D) for governor, 50.0% to 48.7% at 99% reporting, a 1.3-point margin. NBC has not labeled the race a projection, so watch for official results. Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is projected by CBS to hold the special-election Senate seat over Angie Nixon (D), 50.9% to 48.0%. No Florida House flips were found in our sources, and Jared Moskowitz (D) leads in FL-25. About 23% of Floridians are foreign-born, per a secondary ranking of 2024 Census data. For pre-election context, see our look at gas prices, affordability and immigration policy in Florida’s midterms.

Where the candidates stand. Donalds has not laid out a detailed immigration platform in sources we could verify. One related fact: the Florida bar on university H-1B hiring was a directive from Gov. Ron DeSantis in October 2025, and we found no Donalds statement on it.

Arizona

Results. Katie Hobbs (D) is projected to win re-election as governor over Andy Biggs (R), 55.6% to 42.7%, per Copper Courier. Attorney General Kris Mayes (D) and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) are reported ahead in their re-election races, per NBC. JoAnna Mendoza (D) leads Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) in AZ-6, 53% to 45% at 79.5% counted. Prop 317, which designates drug cartels as terrorist organizations, is ahead with about 57% of the vote. About 13.4% of Arizonans are foreign-born (CRS, 2024).

Where the candidates stand. Hobbs is the candidate here with the clearest record.

Nevada

Results. Aaron Ford (D) is projected to beat Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), 51.7% to 44.1% with about 87% counted, per MultiState; Lombardo conceded. It is a flip from Republican to Democratic control of the governor’s office. Question 7, a voter ID measure, passed with 62.3%. Races for attorney general and secretary of state were not found in our sources. About 19% to 20% of Nevadans are foreign-born (secondary estimates).

Where the candidates stand. As attorney general, Ford joined 22 other AGs in a September 2026 brief against ICE arrests without probable cause, saying: “Under President Trump, ICE has continually violated the Constitution, federal laws and direct court orders,” per Fox5 Vegas. Nevada also sued over the birthright citizenship order.

Georgia

Results. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is projected to win re-election over Rep. Mike Collins (R), 59.0% to 41.0%, per Time. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) is projected to beat Rick Jackson (R) for governor, 54.3% to 45.7%, a Republican-to-Democratic flip that Time describes as the first Democratic governor since 2003. Democrats Tanya Miller (attorney general) and Josh McLaurin (lieutenant governor) lead their races, which have not been called. We found no Georgia House flips. Georgia’s foreign-born share was not in our sources.

Where the candidates stand. Bottoms has not said whether she would restrict ICE cooperation as governor, per AP, and we found no statement on repealing HB 1105.

North Carolina

Results. Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is projected to win the open Senate seat over Michael Whatley (R), a flip from Republican. There was no governor’s race in 2026. In the House, Richard Ojeda (D) leads Rep. Richard Hudson (R), the NRCC chair, in NC-9 by about 6,000 votes, and Jamie Ager (D) leads the open NC-11; neither is an NBC projection in our check. Democrats also lead NC-6, NC-13 and NC-14 by two to three points but those races are not formally called; NC-3, NC-5 and NC-7 are uncalled and very close. A photo ID question for all voters passed with 59.6%. Foreign-born share was not in our sources.

Where the candidates stand. Cooper’s immigration record is as governor, not a platform.

New York

Results. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) leads Bruce Blakeman (R), 60% to 40% at roughly 91% reporting; NBC has not labeled the race a projection. Attorney General Letitia James (D) leads Saritha Komatireddy (R), 60.1% to 39.9%. In NY-17, Cait Conley (D) leads Rep. Mike Lawler (R), who has conceded, but thousands of Westchester ballots are still being counted after a scanner failure, so the race is not called. Foreign-born share was not in our sources.

Where the candidates stand. Hochul signed the state’s ban on local 287(g) agreements.

New Jersey

Results: Sen. Cory Booker (D) is projected to win re-election over Justin Murphy (R), 62.1% to 35.3% (about 94% counted). Democrats also lead two House seats held by Republicans: Rebecca Bennett over Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in NJ-7 (projected by NBC), and Zack Mullock over Rep. Jeff Van Drew in NJ-2 (Van Drew conceded, per 6abc). New Jersey had no governor’s race this year.

Where the candidates stand. Booker has been publicly critical of ICE funding.

What it means for you.

• Nothing about your case changes on election night. Green cards, visas and naturalization are federal and run by USCIS regardless of who holds a Senate seat.
• Watch the Dec. 11 DHS funding deadline, not the state house, for any change in how ICE is overseen.
• If you live in NJ-2 or NJ-7, your House member is new; their offices are the first stop for a stuck USCIS case.

Illinois

Results: Gov. JB Pritzker (D) leads Darren Bailey (R) in his bid for a third term, 59.9% to 36.8%, and Juliana Stratton (D) is projected to win the open Senate seat vacated by Dick Durbin, 61.0% to 37.4% over Don Tracy (R), with about 91% to 93% counted (CBS News live results). Kwame Raoul (D) and Alexi Giannoulias (D) lead for attorney general and secretary of state. No Illinois House seats flipped.

Where the candidates stand. Stratton is the most explicit: “I want to abolish ICE because this agency cannot be reformed,” she told Capitol News Illinois in January.

What it means for you.

• Illinois’s courthouse-arrest law stays on the books, subject to the pending federal lawsuit.
• State law cannot stop federal agents from making arrests; it limits where they can do so and gives you a way to sue.
• The Chicago vote signals local sentiment only. It does not create a compensation fund.
• Keep a “know your rights” plan regardless of state law, especially near courthouses.

Pennsylvania

Results: Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is projected to win re-election over Stacy Garrity (R), 60.4% to 38.3%. PublicSource reports Democrats winning control of the state Senate (unofficially 26-24, first time in 30-plus years) and the state House (at least 110 of 203 seats); counts differ by outlet. Bob Harvie (D) leads Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-1, while PA-7, PA-8 and PA-10 were not yet called.

Where the candidates stand. Shapiro’s line, from Spotlight PA: “We do not do ICE’s work for them here in Pennsylvania.” His administration also used state permits to block proposed ICE warehouse detention centers in Berks and Schuylkill counties and called for independent inspection of the Moshannon facility.

What it means for you.

• Do not expect a sudden change in local policing. Any JNET or detention changes would come through agency rules or new legislation.
• Ask your county sheriff’s office whether it has a 287(g) agreement; policies vary by county.
• Detention-center siting fights are decided locally and by state permit, so watch your county board.

Michigan

Results: Abdul El-Sayed (D) is projected to win the open Senate seat Gary Peters is leaving, 52.5% to 45.5% over Mike Rogers (R), a Democratic hold (PBS). Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is projected to win the governor’s race, 54.6% to 43.7% over John James (R). Fox 2 Detroit reports Democrats flipped the state House and kept the state Senate, which would give them a full trifecta.

Where the candidates stand. El-Sayed calls for abolishing ICE.

What it means for you.

• If you live in a county with a 287(g) deal, local jail contacts can still lead to ICE referrals until the county or legislature changes course.
• For families with school-age children, watch for state guidance on ICE access to campuses.
• El-Sayed’s abolish-ICE stance is a Senate position; the Senate cannot unilaterally abolish an agency.

Ohio

Results: NBC projects Democrats flipping two top Ohio offices. Sherrod Brown (D) is projected to win the special Senate election for the seat Vance vacated, 50.01% to 45.15% over Jon Husted (R), in unofficial returns. Amy Acton (D) is projected to win governor, 52.31% to 44.38% over Vivek Ramaswamy (R), succeeding term-limited Mike DeWine. In the House, Brian Poindexter (D) leads Rep. Max Miller (R) in OH-7; in OH-15, Don Leonard (D) is listed ahead of Rep. Mike Carey, but the race is not called. Attorney general John Kulewicz (D) leads Keith Faber (R) by about 0.6 point at 98% counted; Faber conceded, per Ohio Capital Journal.

Where the candidates stand. Acton has said she supports working with federal law enforcement.

What it means for you.

• Haitian TPS holders: neither a governor nor a senator can restore status; follow USCIS notices and consult an accredited representative.
• Acton has said she works with federal law enforcement and has not announced limits on local police cooperation with ICE.
• About 5.5% of Ohioans (654,793) are foreign-born, per CRS 2024 ACS data.

Iowa

Results: NBC projects Democrats flipping the Senate seat and the governor’s office. Josh Turek (D) is projected to beat Ashley Hinson (R), 50.5% to 46.4%, for the seat Joni Ernst is leaving. Rob Sand (D) is projected to win governor, 55.5% to 44.5% over Zach Lahn (R), the first Democratic governor elected since 2006. Kim Reynolds did not seek a third term. Radio Iowa reports Democrats ahead in three of four U.S. House districts, from 0-4 before. Nate Willems (D) leads Attorney General Brenna Bird (R).

Where the candidates stand. Sand has said little publicly we could source. We found no primary-source statement from him on SF 2340, 287(g), ICE or the border.

What it means for you.

• SF 2340 is on hold, not repealed. Check whether the injunction still applies before assuming it cannot be enforced.
• Sand has not said what he will do about the State Patrol’s ICE task force; wait for his first executive orders.
• Visas and status stay federal. Iowa’s change in leadership does not alter processing times.

Maine

Results: Troy Jackson (D) is projected to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R), 53.6% to 46.3%; Collins conceded, per Time. Hannah Pingree (D) leads the governor’s race 54.9% to 37.0% over Bobby Charles (R); NBC has not labeled it a projection. ME-2 is uncalled: Paul LePage (R) leads Dunlap (D) 50.1% to 49.8% at 89.9% counted in the race for Golden’s open seat, which would be a Republican pickup.

Where the candidates stand. The Bangor Daily News reports Jackson wants to abolish ICE and move its work to CBP, and calls ICE a rogue agency. That is the paper’s account; we have no verbatim quote.

What it means for you.

• Maine police are barred from helping with civil immigration enforcement. This does not stop federal agents from acting.
• Pingree has not said, in sources we found, whether she would change LD 1971.
• Jackson cannot abolish ICE alone; that would take an act of Congress and a president’s signature.

The rest of the country at a glance

Results for the other 35 states and DC, as of the afternoon after the election. “Leads” means NBC has not projected the race. “n/a” means no race or no result in our data.

In Kansas, Holscher (D) leads the governor’s race 50.3% to 49.7% with 98.3% counted, and in Tennessee Blackburn (R) leads 45.5% to 43.0%. NBC projects Crowley (D) in Wisconsin. NBC’s live blog reports citizenship-to-vote measures approved in Alaska and South Dakota; Arkansas, Kansas and West Virginia show them ahead without an NBC call. These concern voting, not immigration status or enforcement. Colorado’s Amendment 81 on DHS coordination and Oregon’s Measure 105 on sanctuary repeal had no reported final results.

What a Democratic Congress can and can’t do on immigration

Control of Congress changes who sets the agenda, runs the committees and holds the purse. It does not change who runs ICE or USCIS. Before the election we laid out what each result would mean for immigration; here is each lever now, with where it stands.

Oversight and subpoenas

When the House convenes Jan. 3, Democrats take committee gavels and with them subpoena power over DHS, ICE and CBP. Hearings, document requests and public reports are the main tools. On election night, Schumer spoke of investigations and of governing with or without the president, and Jeffries focused on costs, Medicaid and tariffs; neither made a specific ICE pledge that we found. Before the election, Democratic leaders had demanded body cameras, no masks and judicial warrants for ICE operations in February.

Funding: Dec. 11 and the money already spent

There is no full-year FY2027 DHS appropriation. An interim law (P.L. 119-103, signed Sept. 2) expires Dec. 11, 2026. The House Appropriations Committee reported H.R. 9310 on June 12 by a 34-27 vote; the Senate has not marked up a bill. The new Congress does not take office until Jan. 3, so the Republican-led Congress controls the Dec. 11 deadline, but Democrats’ new numbers shape the bargaining.

ICE and Border Patrol money is a harder target. A June 10, 2026 law (P.L. 119-98, the “Secure America Act”) funds ICE and CBP through FY2029, on top of more than $190 billion for DHS functions in P.L. 119-21. Per Congressional Research Service reporting, clawing that money back requires a new law passed by both chambers and signed or passed over a veto.

Senate confirmations and veto math

Senate confirmations need a simple majority, so a Democratic Senate would control votes on DHS nominees from Jan. 3 if its majority holds. Any bill restricting ICE would face a presidential veto. Overriding one takes two-thirds of each chamber: 290 House votes at full strength and 67 in the Senate. Even at NBC’s estimate of 258 House Democrats and 54 Senate Democrats, that falls short (our arithmetic, not a sourced projection).

Court fights that Congress does not control

• $100,000 H-1B fee: vacated nationwide by a Massachusetts federal judge on June 8, 2026. It is on appeal. Law-firm sources conflict on later dates, so check the current status before relying on it.
• TPS: the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Mullin v. Doe (June 25, 2026) that terminations for Haiti and Syria may proceed. We found no sourced legislative plan to change that. Rep. Sam Liccardo has filed a discharge petition for the Afghanistan TPS Act of 2026.
• Travel ban: a Dec. 16, 2025 proclamation, effective Jan. 1, 2026, covers 39 countries in full or in part. We found no 2026 change.
• Birthright citizenship: the Supreme Court held the executive order unconstitutional in Trump v. Barbara on June 30, 2026, reportedly 6-3.

The practical takeaway: expect investigations and funding brinkmanship, not immediate changes to how ICE or USCIS handles your case.

What happens next

Several deadlines will decide how much of this is real. The first is a federal funding cliff, not the swearing-in.

Frequently asked questions