Midterm Elections 2026: What Each Result Would Mean for U.S. Immigration

The November 3, 2026 midterm elections will not change a single pending green card, visa or citizenship case the next morning. Voters pick all 435 House members and 35 Senate seats, but the new Congress is not sworn in until January 3, 2027, and the president's immigration powers, proclamations and pending rules are not on the ballot.

What the vote does decide is who controls the levers Congress holds over immigration: the spending bills that fund DHS and the State Department, the hearings that question agency officials, Senate confirmation of the people who run and review immigration policy, and whether any immigration bill can pass in 2027 and 2028.

Republicans hold 53 of 100 Senate seats and a narrow House majority today. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take that chamber. This explainer does not predict the result. It lays out what each outcome would change, and what stays the same no matter who wins.

Two deadlines arrive well before the new Congress does. Comments on the proposed OPT fee close on November 9, and the stopgap funding law that keeps DHS and USCIS funded expires on December 11. Both play out before any newly elected member takes office.

One more ground rule: members who lose on November 3 keep their votes until January 3. The lame-duck Congress that meets in November and December is the one that has to deal with the funding deadline.

Here is the sequence, from Election Day to the first day of the 120th Congress.

What Does Not Change on November 4

Immigration benefits run on statutes and agency rules already in force. A vote count does not amend either. USCIS keeps processing applications under the current fee schedule, consulates keep their appointment calendars, and the State Department keeps publishing the monthly Visa Bulletin, which sets green card cutoff dates under formulas Congress wrote decades ago.

Fees that took effect on October 16, 2026 stay in place. That increase came from the annual inflation adjustment written into H.R. 1, the 2025 reconciliation law: the TPS application (Form I-821) rose from $510 to $520, the first work permit for asylum applicants, parolees and TPS applicants rose from $560 to $570, and the parole fee rose from $1,020 to $1,050. Because Congress set those fees by statute, only a new law can change the formula.

The December 11 Funding Deadline Matters More Than the Vote Count

The government is running on a stopgap funding law, P.L. 119-103, signed on September 2, 2026. It funds federal agencies, DHS included, at fiscal 2026 rates through December 11, 2026. Unless Congress passes full-year bills or another stopgap, funding lapses on December 12.

The same law extends several immigration programs that expire with it:

• E-Verify, the employment eligibility system many employers are required to use
• The Conrad 30 program, which lets foreign doctors trained in the U.S. waive the J-1 two-year home residency rule to work in underserved areas
• The non-minister religious worker special immigrant program
• Supplemental H-2B visa authority for seasonal employers

A lapse would not stop everything. USCIS is funded mostly by application fees, so most case processing continues. ICE and Customs and Border Protection also have multiyear money through fiscal 2029 from the Secure America Act (P.L. 119-98), a reconciliation law enacted on June 10, 2026, so enforcement does not depend on the December bill. DHS already lived through a 76-day funding lapse earlier this year, from February 14 to April 30, 2026.

The election result can still shape the December fight. Leaders who know they will hold power in January may prefer a short stopgap into 2027. Leaders about to lose power may push for full-year bills before the handover. Either way, the members voting on December 11 are the ones already in office.

Four Possible Results and What Each One Controls

Congress is two chambers with different jobs. The House starts spending bills by custom and can open oversight investigations. The Senate confirms nominees and, under its filibuster rule, needs 60 votes to pass most legislation. Budget reconciliation is the main exception: it needs only simple majorities, but it is limited to taxes, spending and fees.

That split is why a single-chamber flip matters more than it sounds. Whoever holds the House majority has a say over every dollar DHS spends. Whoever holds the Senate majority decides which nominees get a vote. The table shows how each combination plays out starting January 3, 2027.

One constant runs through every row: the president keeps the veto, and the term runs to January 2029. A Congress controlled by the opposing party can pass bills, but cannot enact them without the president's signature or a two-thirds override in both chambers.

What Congress Can and Cannot Change

Much of 2025 and 2026 immigration policy came from executive action, not legislation, and that shapes what a new Congress can do about it.

Proclamations. The $100,000 payment on new H-1B petitions for workers abroad comes from a presidential proclamation, extended in September 2026 through September 21, 2027. A federal court in Massachusetts vacated the policies carrying out the fee on June 8, 2026, and the First Circuit refused to pause that ruling on July 24. The fight is in the courts. Congress could write H-1B fee rules into law, but that bill would need both chambers and a signature.

Proposed rules. DHS published a proposed fee of $70,000 for an initial OPT recommendation and $30,000 for each subsequent OPT period on October 8, 2026, with comments due November 9. A separate proposal would add a $103,265 fee to cap-subject H-1B petitions; its comment period closed on September 24. Neither is final, and an election does not stop agency rulemaking.

The Congressional Review Act. Once a rule is final, Congress can cancel it with a joint resolution that needs only simple majorities in both chambers. The catch: the president must sign the resolution, or Congress must override a veto. Rules finalized near the end of a session can carry into the next Congress's review window, which is one reason the January majorities matter for rules finalized in late 2026.

Statutory fees. Fees written into law, like the H.R. 1 humanitarian fees, change only through new legislation or the inflation formula the law already contains.

Pending Immigration Bills Expire on January 3

Every bill that does not become law by the end of the 119th Congress dies on January 3, 2027. Sponsors must reintroduce it, and it starts again at the committee stage in front of whichever majority wins in November.

That includes the measures tracked in our report on seven Senate immigration bills with uncertain futures, and House bills such as:

• The Dignity Act (H.R. 4393), a bipartisan bill that would create a temporary legal status for some long-term undocumented residents rather than a path to citizenship. The Problem Solvers Caucus endorsed it in May 2026.
• H.R. 8335, introduced April 16, 2026, to reform the H-1B program with exceptions for certain vital professions.
• The End H-1B Visa Abuse Act (H.R. 8443), introduced April 22, 2026, which would pause H-1B visa issuance until new limits take effect.

All three sit at the referral stage in the House Judiciary Committee. A lame-duck session can pass bills, but large immigration packages rarely move in the final weeks of a Congress.

Why Senate Control Matters for Immigration Officials and Judges

The Senate confirms the officials who run immigration agencies, including the Secretary of Homeland Security, the USCIS director, the ICE director and the CBP commissioner, along with ambassadors and senior State Department officials who oversee consulates.

It also confirms federal judges, and appeals courts now decide many of the largest immigration disputes, from the H-1B fee case to TPS terminations. Nominations need only a simple majority, so the party holding 51 seats, or 50 plus the vice president, decides which nominees reach a vote.

Immigration judges are different. They are Justice Department employees hired by the attorney general, not Senate-confirmed judges, so the Senate result does not directly change who hears removal cases.

State Ballot Measures on Citizenship and Voting

Some immigration-related questions are on state ballots. At least five states vote on measures that would write a U.S. citizenship requirement for voting into state law or constitutions: Alaska (a citizen-initiated statute), Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota (Amendment J) and West Virginia.

These measures govern state and local elections. Federal law already bars noncitizens from voting in federal elections, and none of the measures changes anyone's immigration status.

For green card holders and visa holders, the rule has not changed: do not register or vote in federal elections. A false claim to U.S. citizenship or an unlawful vote can lead to removal and can permanently block naturalization.

What to Do Before and After Election Day

• Students and schools: comment on the OPT fee proposal by November 9 through Federal Register document 2026-20660 if you want your view in the record.
• TPS, parole and asylum filers: use the new fees for anything postmarked on or after October 16, 2026, or USCIS may reject the filing.
• Employers using E-Verify, H-2B or Conrad 30: watch December 11. If funding lapses, those programs can pause until Congress acts.
• Religious worker green card applicants: talk to your attorney about timing before December 11, since that program has lapsed during past funding gaps.
• H-1B employers: follow the court rulings, not the election, for the $100,000 fee; the $103,265 cap petition fee is still a proposal.
• Everyone with a pending case: keep your appointments, deadlines and travel plans. Nothing about your case changes on November 4.

After the results are certified, the next markers are the lame-duck funding vote and the committee chairs the new majorities name in January. Those choices, more than the headline result, will show which immigration bills get a hearing in 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions