(AUSTRALIA) Australia’s population is edging toward a landmark figure, with official projections showing the country is only months away from reaching 28 million, driven mainly by a sharp migration surge after the pandemic. As of October 27, 2025, the population is estimated at 28.1 million, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) most recently recording 27,536,874 people in March 2025 and annual growth of 1.6%.

The Centre for Population and the ABS expect the 28 million milestone to be confirmed between late 2025 and early 2026, even as debate intensifies over how fast Australia should grow and who should be coming.

Scale and recent trends

The scale and speed of growth stand out. In 2024 alone, net overseas migration reached 340,000—made up of about 580,000 arrivals and 240,000 departures—far above long-run averages. This accounts for the overwhelming share of population growth.

• In the year to March 2024, 83% of Australia’s increase came from net overseas migration.
• That pattern has continued into 2025, with international students, temporary workers, and skilled entrants at the core of the rebound.
• Demographers describe this as an “artificial” migration surge, largely a product of policy choices and catch-up after COVID-era border closures, rather than natural increase.

Australia’s earlier forecasts in the 2000s expected the nation to hit 27 million much later. Yet the country crossed that mark more than 30 years ahead of schedule as the growth rate accelerated to 2.4% in 2023. At current settings, the next million came fast too: one projection suggested the 28 million mark could be reached by August 25, 2025, if growth kept pace.

Wikipedia’s demographic estimate for October 27, 2025 places the population at 28,109,700, aligning with the momentum in ABS and Centre for Population figures. While the official count lags until confirmed in ABS releases, the trend line is clear: migration is doing most of the work in lifting the headline number, while births and deaths play a smaller role.

Drivers of the current migration surge

Two forces are most visible:

1. International education
   • Universities and vocational providers have welcomed large numbers of students who delayed study during the pandemic.
   • These cohorts swell short-term population figures and fuel demand for housing, transport, and services in cities.
2. Labour market needs
   • Policy settings were shaped to address shortages in health, aged care, tech, and engineering.
   • That has pulled in skilled entrants and temporary visa holders who support employers but also add pressure to rental markets and public infrastructure.

Economists and demographers note that temporary entrants—especially students—now make up a larger share of arrivals than in earlier cycles. This raises questions about long-term settlement:

• How many will transition to permanent visas?
• How many will depart after study or work?

Analysis by VisaVerge.com suggests recent policy adjustments aim to balance the intake, making it more targeted while still supporting the economy during a tight labour market.

The government has begun to recalibrate settings in response to the surge. On September 2, 2025, it announced the 2025–26 permanent Migration Program planning levels, reflecting an effort to manage volumes and the skill mix. The Department of Home Affairs frames these planning levels as a tool to align the intake with workforce needs and service capacity.

Readers can review the official planning settings on the Department’s website via the 2025–26 Migration Program page: Department of Home Affairs – Australia’s Migration Program.

Policy shifts, public pressure, and practical impacts

Public concern about the pace of growth has risen. Polling shows 13% of Australian electors now rank immigration and population as a top issue—double the share from 2023—fueled by worries about housing availability, rent spikes, and strains on transport and social services.

Housing is the flashpoint.

• Local councils and states are racing to approve more homes, but supply lags demand.
• Large student cohorts arriving at once reduce vacancy rates and push rents up in suburbs near campuses and train lines.
• Universities are expanding student housing, yet many students still seek private rentals where competition is fierce.
• Newcomers with steady jobs also face difficulty securing long-term leases, delaying settlement and limiting where they can work or study.

Infrastructure is another pressure point.

• Buses and trains feel crowded during peak times.
• Hospitals and clinics are managing higher demand.
• For small businesses, additional foot traffic and available workers can be beneficial, allowing longer opening hours.
• Aged care homes and hospitals rely on international nurses and carers to fill shifts that might otherwise go unstaffed.

Employers, universities, and community groups are urging a “smarter” intake—one that keeps a strong pipeline for skills in shortage while easing pressure on housing and services. Policy suggestions include:

• Tighter links between student visas and genuine study.
• Clearer pathways for graduates in high-need fields.
• Stronger screening to reduce churn in the temporary cohort.
• Better coordination between migration planning and housing targets so growth does not outpace new builds.

ABS numbers and the human dimension

The ABS data provides the firmest grounding for how and why the numbers are moving. As of March 2025, population stood at 27,536,874, up by 423,400 year on year.

• In the year to March 2024, 83% of that rise came from net overseas migration.
• The 2024 net figure—340,000—was built on historically high arrivals and elevated departures, the latter reflecting more people moving in and out than during closed-border years.

Behind each figure are personal stories:

• A nurse from Southeast Asia filling critical shifts at a public hospital.
• A software engineer from India or Europe adding depth to a local team.
• A first-year student, thousands of kilometres from home, trying to find an affordable room near campus.

Their contributions reach into classrooms, clinics, and start-ups. Their presence also means more seats needed on trains and more strain on tight rental markets. The balance is delicate, and it is reshaping Australian politics and policy in real time.

Looking ahead

In the months ahead, the official 28 million milestone will be confirmed in ABS updates. The headline number matters less than what sits under it:

• The make-up of the intake
• The speed at which people arrive
• How well cities and regions absorb change

The government’s planning levels for 2025–26 aim to smooth the curve without cutting essential skills. The public will watch closely for signs that housing supply is catching up and that services can keep pace with demand.

Australia’s growth story was once steady and predictable. Today, it is faster and more complex, with migration at its core. The migration surge has lifted the population to the cusp of 28 million sooner than forecast decades ago. Whether this pace continues will depend on policy settings, global student flows, and the capacity of homes, roads, and classrooms to stretch.

For now, the data points in one direction: migration remains the main driver of Australia’s population growth, and the next chapter will be written in how the country manages it.