- Mexico’s National Antitrust Commission is expected to decide on the merger before December thirty-first, twenty twenty-six.
- The combined group could control approximately seventy-four percent of Mexico’s domestic airline market and operate alone on fifty-five routes.
- Potential safeguards include fare limits, route and job protections, and third-party access on concentrated routes.
Mexico’s National Antitrust Commission (CNA) is expected to approve the proposed Volaris-Viva Aerobus merger before December 31, 2026, six people familiar with the proceedings said. The agency has not publicly confirmed a decision date.
The deal would create Grupo Más Vuelos, likely Mexico’s largest airline group. The carriers would keep their own brands and operating identities.
Regulators are weighing conditions on fares, jobs and routes. The proposed protections would not eliminate the concentration created by the merger.
Competition expert and former antitrust commissioner Javier Núñez said regulators could seek to open space for new competitors on routes where the combined group would be hard to challenge.
“The only condition you could (realistically) impose is to free up space for a third party on highly concentrated routes,”
Núñez pointed to airports serving Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. He described access for another operator as a possible remedy on those routes.
Aeroméxico, Mexico’s principal full-service carrier, has repeatedly opposed the transaction. A person familiar with its position said the airline doubts concessions would meaningfully limit the combined company’s market share.
Viva said in a written response that it remained attentive to the review and would keep cooperating with authorities. Volaris said it was cooperating and remained “confident in the strategic merits of the transaction.” The airlines have also described their approach as “collaborating with the authorities” and “working closely with regulatory authorities.”
The combined group’s reach would extend across domestic aviation. Volaris and Viva account for around three-quarters of domestic flights, while representing less than one-fifth of international flights.
| Market measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Routes operated by both airlines | 85 |
| Routes where the group would be the sole operator | 55 |
| Expected annual domestic passengers | Roughly 60 million |
| Estimated combined domestic share in one analysis | Approximately 74% |
A share of roughly 74% could leave Aeroméxico as the main remaining counterweight in a market increasingly described as a potential duopoly. The 55 routes without another operator would present a particular challenge for regulators seeking to preserve passenger options.
The proposed safeguards still leave route enforcement unresolved
The agency is expected to require the airlines to maintain low fares and preserve their low-cost business model. It may also set a ceiling by tying some prices to the range charged by comparable regional operators.
Employment and route continuity are also under consideration. Regulators are expected to seek protections against widespread layoffs and require the group to keep operating most existing routes, where rival carriers often offer few alternatives.
The rules for deciding which routes must remain, and for checking compliance, were still being finalized on October 13, 2026. That leaves the practical reach of the route commitments unsettled.
Officials also considered changing how many flights the combined group could operate at major airports. Three people familiar with the review said regulators examined the option; two said they now intend to keep the existing limits unchanged.
Separate from those airport-wide limits, regulators could require the airlines to release slots or operating capacity to third parties on concentrated routes. The agency has not publicly confirmed the terms.
A source at the regulator said: “The body cannot issue a public statement on the process as it remains open and due process must be respected.” No publicly identified official has been named as the person responsible for signing a decision.
The airlines would remain separate brands under one holding company
Volaris and Viva announced the deal in late 2025 as a merger of equals. Their planned holding-company structure would keep each airline’s brand, operating certificate, customer service and day-to-day operations intact.
Enrique Beltranena, Volaris’ chief executive, played a central role in negotiating the transaction, according to a person familiar with the company’s operations. The person said Volaris viewed the tie-up as necessary.
Roberto Alcántara, Viva’s chairman and head of its principal shareholder, transportation conglomerate IAMSA, is expected to lead the new group’s board for an initial three-year term after closing. Viva Chief Executive Juan Carlos Zuazua has separately discussed the carrier’s capacity decisions.
The transaction has cleared competition reviews in Colombia and the United States, leaving Mexico’s review as the remaining major hurdle identified in the proceedings. Approval would also test the regulator, which replaced the former antitrust authority in 2025.
Colombia and the United States have cleared the deal, but Mexico has not
Colombian competition authorities approved the merger in April 2026. In July, Volaris executives said they expected to close by year-end and reported submitting roughly two-thirds of the information requested by Mexican regulators.
Volaris called an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting in August to approve corporate changes needed to advance the deal. By September, Mexican antitrust approval remained pending.
The carriers had also cleared U.S. antitrust review, though Volaris said in July it remained in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice. The six people familiar with the Mexican proceeding expect the decision before the end of 2026.
The merger is also unfolding at Felipe Ángeles International Airport, the government-operated airport outside Mexico City. Two people familiar with negotiations cited government pressure to advance the transaction, saying the two airlines are its largest operators.
Viva’s separate September operating figures show the pressures facing the carriers as the review continues. It carried 2.2 million passengers that month, down 7.1% after cutting capacity by 11%.
Zuazua attributed the reductions to seasonal demand, higher fuel prices and aircraft grounded by Pratt & Whitney engine issues. The CNA’s expected decision remains before December 31, 2026.
