Japan’s Two-Track Policy on 2.57 Million Foreign Workers Faces Pushback from University of Tokyo Institute of Social Science

A panel survey by the University of Tokyo Institute of Social Science found opposition to accepting more foreigners rose from 35.6% in 2024 to 56.3% in 2026. Japan’s foreign workforce was growing at the same time.

The country counted 2.57 million foreign workers in October 2025, an 11.7% increase from a year earlier. Foreign residents surpassed 4.1 million by the end of that year.

The figures capture Japan’s two-track policy: recruit workers where employers need them, but make long-term settlement more conditional. The pressure is visible in both public attitudes and new rules.

A separate Waseda University survey found that 73% of respondents in 2025 worried that additional foreigners would worsen public safety or social order. The concerns meet an economy increasingly reliant on workers from abroad.

Foreign employees fill jobs in nursing care, construction, agriculture, food service, manufacturing, convenience stores and shipbuilding. Regional employers say some operations could not continue without them.

Regional firms say production and services already depend on foreign staff

A shipbuilding-related company with more than 70 years of operating history said it could no longer produce without foreign employees. Foreign nationals now make up more than half its workforce, including 96 overseas employees.

That reliance is especially acute outside major cities. Smaller regional companies often cannot match the wages offered in Tokyo and other large urban centers.

Pay is not the only consideration. Working conditions, treatment and the possibility of building a stable life all affect whether workers join and stay.

Japan introduced its Specified Skilled Worker program in 2019 to address labor shortages in fields such as nursing care, construction and agriculture. The program created a route for employers in designated sectors to hire overseas workers.

Food service reached approximately 49,000 workers against a government ceiling of 50,000. Japan suspended new intake through that route from April 2026.

The labor gap could widen. Recruit Works Institute estimates Japan may face a shortage of 11 million workers by 2040, even with almost no economic growth.

Foreign staff help keep factories, farms, care facilities, restaurants and shops operating in areas where the working-age Japanese population is shrinking. Local employers are competing for people they cannot readily replace.

Settlement rules tighten as the government stresses order and compliance

The government has also moved to raise the costs and conditions associated with long-term settlement. From October 1, 2026, the permanent-residence application fee reportedly rose from ¥10,000 to ¥200,000.

The minimum residence period for naturalization is set to increase from five years to ten years. New permanent-residence standards have also been reported to include higher household-income requirements and Japanese ability sufficient for ordinary conversation.

Applicants would also face stronger scrutiny of whether they can support themselves without relying on public systems. The changes put more weight on compliance and self-sufficiency.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has framed the government’s aim as “orderly coexistence” with foreign nationals. Her political platform has emphasized action against rule-breakers and steps to address what the government describes as potential “social friction.”

Sanseito helped move immigration into national political debate with its “Japanese first” campaign message. The party won 14 seats in the 2025 Upper House election.

Its 2026 proposals call for numerical limits on foreign arrivals, stricter permanent-residence and family-reunification rules, tougher Japanese-language requirements and restrictions on lower-skilled migration. They also include local targets for the share of foreign residents.

Those proposals sit alongside a public debate that is not uniform across the country. National concerns focus on border control, overstaying, tax and pension compliance, public order and integration.

Regional businesses, meanwhile, need employees to stay long enough to gain experience, learn Japanese and build ties in their communities. More restrictive settlement rules can complicate that effort.

Kutchan shows how seasonal labor can reshape a small community

The resort area of Niseko illustrates the scale of seasonal dependence. In Kutchan, Hokkaido, foreign residents numbered 3,718 at the January 2025 peak season.

They represented 21.7% of the winter population. That was 2,526 more foreign residents than in the September 2024 off-season.

Foreign workers support tourism businesses in the area, while their presence can also intensify concerns over housing, land prices and social cohesion. The seasonal population swing puts both sides of that pressure in view.

Japan’s ability to retain workers is becoming part of the competition

Risa Hagiwara, an economics professor at Meikai University, described the developing model as “selective and conditional” immigration. She warned that much harder settlement conditions could make Japan less attractive to workers hoping to build long-term lives there.

Recruitment is not only a contest among Japanese employers. A survey cited in September 2026 found that 83.7% of foreign workers in Japan were interested in working in another country.

Workers can compare Japan with destinations offering clearer paths to permanent residence, higher wages or stronger protections. Regional companies already struggle to compete with large-city salaries at home.

The policy question is whether Japan will treat migrants primarily as temporary labor or make room for them as future residents. That choice affects families, rights and participation in local communities, as well as the ability to keep jobs filled.

The interest in leaving is already measurable. In the September 2026 survey, 83.7% of foreign workers said they were interested in working abroad.