- Fwd.us estimates Nevada could forgo $441 million in contributions by December 31, 2026, if immigration protections and work authorization change.
- The projection includes about 15,000 residents potentially losing protections by year-end; roughly 7,000 currently hold work permits.
- If current trends continue through 2028, the report projects $849 million in annual contributions lost and $220 million in annual tax losses.
Fwd.us estimates that Nevada could forgo $441 million in economic contributions by December 31, 2026, as immigration policies of the Trump administration affect residents’ status and ability to work. The figure comes from an advocacy group’s analysis, not a government forecast.
The report projects consequences, not a settled loss. Its estimates depend on how status and employment authorization change, and on what happens next in individual cases.
Free toolCSPA Age-Out Calculator Online
The analysis counts about 15,000 Nevada residents who could lose immigration protections by year-end. About 7,000 people in that group currently hold government-authorized work permits.
It also estimates $40 million less in state and local tax revenue and $48 million less in federal and payroll taxes during 2026. The report projects roughly 2,000 fewer workers apiece in construction and hospitality.
The $441 million estimate is an aggregate economic projection. It is not an adjudicated government finding, and it does not establish that each person counted will lose authorization, stop working or leave Nevada.
The report also estimates that as many as 4,000 U.S.-citizen children in mixed-status households could be affected when family members lose protections. Those figures describe potential exposure, not a count of children who have already experienced an economic loss.
Yvette Fernandez, who has discussed immigration and Nevada’s economy, described the uncertainty for households facing the possible end of Temporary Protected Status:
“one day you have a job that helps you sustain your home and your family, and the next, well, that’s all in jeopardy.”
The estimate comes amid changes affecting temporary protections for people from several countries. Nevada also has a large population with different forms of protection and employment authorization.
Nevada’s immigration exposure reaches beyond the report’s near-term estimate
The analysis estimates that about 80,000 immigrants in Nevada hold some form of protected status, including DACA, Temporary Protected Status, asylum or U visas. Of that group, roughly 52,000 have employment authorization and contribute an estimated $1.8 billion annually to the state economy.
Fwd.us also estimates that about 2,000 people in Nevada had already lost immigration status by the end of Trump’s first year back in office. That reported estimate is separate from the larger number projected to lose protections by the end of 2026.
Nearly 6,000 people in Nevada have TPS, according to the supplied reporting. Immigrants make up about 60% of Culinary Union members, who come from more than 170 countries.
The union held an emergency news conference ahead of a September 9, 2026, deadline affecting Salvadorans with TPS. The administration later put the termination decision on hold, leaving the length and permanence of that protection uncertain.
Fernandez has also pointed to immigrants’ roles in service jobs and construction, an industry affected by Nevada’s housing shortage. The material does not assign a separate economic-loss figure to those effects.
Visa problems affecting performers led to the cancellation of Michelada Fest, another local example of disruption connected to immigration rules. That cancellation is not presented as part of the report’s $441 million calculation.
The 2028 scenario forecasts larger workforce and tax losses
Fwd.us projects a wider impact if current policy trends continue through the end of 2028. Those figures are annual contributions and tax revenue under the longer-range scenario.
| Projected measure by the end of 2028 | Estimate |
|---|---|
| People who could lose immigration status | 34,000 |
| Workers who could lose employment authorization | 21,000 |
| Construction workers affected | 7,000 |
| Hospitality workers affected | 5,000 |
| Health care and education workers combined | 2,000 |
| Annual economic contributions lost | $849 million |
| Combined annual tax revenue lost | $220 million |
The report attributes the projections to enforcement policies and changes to temporary protections for nationals of Haiti, Venezuela, Afghanistan and Cuba. Nationally, Fwd.us estimated that about 1 million people had lost TPS as of August 2026.
These programs do not confer the same benefits or follow one shared set of rules. TPS operates under INA § 244, 8 U.S.C. § 1254a, and applies to qualifying nationals of countries designated for the program who meet legal requirements.
DACA provides deferred action and employment authorization; it does not itself grant lawful immigration status. Asylum is available to qualifying refugees under INA § 208, 8 U.S.C. § 1158.
U visas may be available to certain crime victims who qualify and assist law enforcement, under INA § 101(a)(15)(U), 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(15)(U). Eligibility, expiration and renewal rules differ across categories.
Losing one protection does not automatically result in immediate removal in every case. Individual consequences may depend on a person’s underlying status, pending applications, immigration-court history and eligibility for other relief.
The forecast could also shift with litigation, agency implementation, congressional action, renewals of protections and workers’ ability to obtain another authorization. The report’s figures do not establish how those factors will resolve.
The White House’s Nevada page offers a different measure of the administration’s policy. It claims that more than 3 million unauthorized immigrants have left the United States since Trump returned to office and describes the policy as improving border security and public safety. That claim does not measure Nevada’s projected economic contributions or tax losses.
The Nevada report’s national TPS estimate covers losses through August 2026; its Nevada projection looks ahead to the end of 2026 and 2028. The September deadline affecting Salvadorans remains on hold, while the report’s longer-range estimates assume current policy trends continue.
This article provides general information and is not legal advice. Consult a qualified immigration attorney about your specific case.
