Frontex recorded almost one-third fewer irregular border crossings into the European Union during the first nine months of 2026 than in the same period last year, according to preliminary data released on 19 October 2026. The tally covered all routes into the bloc.
Detections fell year over year in September, too, but rose from August. The agency counted about 14,300 that month, down 28% from September 2025 and up 11% from the previous month.
Executive Director Hans Leijtens said the overall decline had continued through summer and into autumn, while warning that routes can shift quickly.
“On most routes into Europe, fewer people are attempting the journey, and that has held through the summer and into the autumn. But things can turn quickly: detections on the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands were four times higher in September than in August. Smuggling networks do not disappear when the numbers fall. They move, and they wait for an opening. Our job is to be ready when they find one.”
The period covered the first full summer under the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum. The pact introduces one standard screening process at the EU’s external borders, with agency officers helping member states establish arrivals’ nationalities, collect biometric data and check documents.
The decline does not, by itself, establish that the new screening system caused fewer arrivals. The agency attributed falling numbers on nearly all major routes to “sustained cooperation with partner countries and preventive measures in key departure states, which continue to reduce the number of boats setting out towards Europe.”
The Eastern and Central Mediterranean together accounted for almost 60% of entries. The Eastern Mediterranean remained the busiest route, while the Western Mediterranean was the only major route to rise over the nine-month period.
| Route | Detections and change |
|---|---|
| Eastern Mediterranean | Around 31,800, down 15% |
| Central Mediterranean | Around 22,500, down 56% |
| Western Mediterranean | Approximately 18,300, up 26% |
| Western African route | Down 45% over nine months |
| Western Balkans | Down 27% |
| Eastern land borders | Down 51% |
The Libya–Crete corridor led the Eastern Mediterranean route, ahead of the eastern Aegean islands and the land border with Türkiye. Cyprus accounted for a small share. After a weather-related dip, arrivals picked up toward summer’s end, with about 4,800 detections in September. Sudanese, Bangladeshi and Afghan nationals were the main groups recorded there.
Libya remained the principal departure hub in the Central Mediterranean, accounting for about three-quarters of arrivals; Tunisia and Algeria also played a role. The most common nationalities on that route were Bangladeshi, Algerian and Somali. Its 56% fall was the steepest among the routes listed.
The Western Mediterranean increase was concentrated at the land border, where detections more than doubled. Sea arrivals there rose 8%. On the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands, September detections reached four times August’s level, despite the route remaining lower across the full period.
The decline has not removed the risks at sea or shifting pressures
The International Organization for Migration said nearly 2,000 people had died in the Mediterranean so far this year. The agency said smugglers “continue to send them to sea in overcrowded and unseaworthy boats, whatever the conditions.”
Returns of Afghan nationals from Iran and Pakistan continue to shape movements toward Europe, while instability across the Sahel is pushing departures toward both the Atlantic and western Mediterranean routes. The agency said those developments had not yet produced a significant change at the EU’s external borders, and that it continued to monitor them closely.
Brunner cited a broader two-year fall as the EU argues for returns
At the Munich Migration Conference on 26 September 2026, EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner said illegal migration had fallen 55% over two years and by a further third in the past year. He argued that Europe should choose who can stay and require those who cannot to leave.
Ahead of meetings in London, Brunner said the bloc had “put our European house in order.” He also cited asylum applications at record lows in countries that had previously been main destinations, alongside the same two-year and annual declines in crossings.
The agency has 3,800 officers at the EU’s external borders, where they support national authorities with border protection and lifesaving work at sea.
