(QUEBEC, CANADA) – Quebec’s population fell in 2025 for the first time in decades, as deaths outnumbered births for a second straight year and a sharp drop in temporary residents erased part of the province’s long growth run, according to the Quebec Institute of Statistics.

The province had an estimated 9.03 million residents on January 1, 2026, after a net loss of 9,600 people in 2025, or 0.1%, the agency said in its Bilan démographique 2025 released on June 3, 2026.

Deaths reached 80,450 and births totaled 78,200. Quebec also ended 2025 with 514,050 non-permanent residents, down from 565,450 in 2024, a drop of more than 51,000.

The Quebec Population Decline has landed as both Quebec and the federal government tighten immigration targets. Quebec has capped permanent resident admissions at 45,000 a year, down from 61,000 in 2025, while Canada cut temporary resident targets by 43%, from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026.

Quebec’s current plan also sets a language goal: by 2029, 80% of new immigrants should have intermediate French proficiency. That target sits alongside a smaller intake ceiling, adding pressure to debates over labor supply, demographic aging and the province’s stronger immigration strategy.

The statistics mark a reversal in a trend that had been nearly uninterrupted since the 1950s. Population growth had long been supported by migration gains even as birth rates weakened.

Across the border, U.S. immigration policy shifted on May 22, 2026, when USCIS announced a directive that curtails the ability of temporary residents to adjust status from inside the United States. The agency said officers must treat Adjustment of Status under Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199 as a matter of administrative grace rather than entitlement.

Most nonimmigrants, including students, tourists and temporary workers, must now apply through U.S. consulates abroad, with exceptions for extraordinary circumstances. The change is expected to affect about 500,000 to 1 million applicants each year who previously applied from within the country.

USCIS Spokesman Zach Kahler said in an official press release: “From now on, an alien who is in the U.S. temporarily and wants a Green Card must return to their home country to apply, except in extraordinary circumstances. This policy allows our immigration system to function as the law intended instead of incentivizing loopholes.”

The timing has drawn attention because both governments are narrowing different parts of their immigration systems at once. Quebec is reducing permanent admissions and Canada is cutting temporary resident targets, while the United States is restricting an in-country path that many temporary residents had used to seek permanent status.

That has left applicants facing longer waits and fewer options. In Quebec, spousal sponsorship now averages 37 months, compared with 11 months in the rest of Canada.

Those figures matter in a province where demographic growth has become harder to sustain through natural increase. With deaths already exceeding births, any sustained reduction in temporary or permanent arrivals carries more weight in the annual balance.

The fall in non-permanent residents was especially large. Quebec lost more than 51,000 such residents in a single year, a drop tied to federal caps on students and workers.

Non-permanent residents have played an increasing role in population growth across Canada in recent years, especially in university centers and urban labor markets. A pullback of that size changes the arithmetic quickly, particularly when the natural balance is already negative.

Quebec’s language rules add another filter. The province wants a larger share of future immigrants to arrive with intermediate French, a goal that supporters see as central to cultural policy and critics say could narrow the pool further if admissions remain capped at 45,000.

No similar link appears in the U.S. policy change, which focused instead on processing and statutory interpretation. USCIS framed the new rule as a return to what it called the original intent of the law, directing temporary residents to consular processing rather than Adjustment of Status inside the country.

The two policy tracks do not address the same problem, but they affect the same broad question of who can enter, stay and settle. In Quebec, a shrinking population has sharpened the debate over whether lower admissions can coexist with labor demand and an aging society.

The latest data from the Quebec Institute of Statistics place that debate on firmer ground. Quebec still has more than 9 million residents, but the province’s first annual decline in decades suggests how quickly demographic momentum can weaken when births slip and migration falls at the same time.

Officials and applicants looking to verify the changes can consult the Quebec Institute of Statistics demographic report, the USCIS adjustment policy announcement, and Canada’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan. Together, those records show a North American immigration picture growing tighter just as Quebec confronts an outright population drop.