- Arizona public universities could lose $80.8 million in the 2026–27 school year if enrollment keeps falling.
- Arizona State University expects about 11,500 international students this fall, down roughly 3,000 from last year.
- NAFSA and JB International linked the drop to visa processing delays, denials, and tighter U.S. visa rules.
Arizona public universities are bracing for a steep hit as international enrollment falls, and the state could lose as much as $80.8 million in the 2026–27 school year if the slide continues. The estimate comes from a NAFSA and JB International analysis published August 11, 2026, and updated August 24, 2026. The hit is broad.
Arizona State University expects about 11,500 international students this fall, roughly 3,000 fewer than last year. Arizona State University officials said the campus decline is tied to visa processing delays and shifting immigration policies.
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Vice President of Enrollment Matt López said:
"Although the overall campus enrollment is projected to fall slightly, this is due entirely to delays and visa denials that our admitted international students have faced."
The campus is still huge.
The University of Arizona projected a more than 5% drop in international students over the summer, and internal reporting later showed an 81% drop in international student applications for fall 2026 compared with prior years. Northern Arizona University expects about a 45% drop in international students, including a loss of more than 300 students compared with last year.
International students pay tuition and spend on housing, food and other living costs. Those dollars flow through university budgets and local businesses. Arizona State University estimated that those students contribute about $600 million to Arizona’s economy and support more than 5,500 jobs.
The state’s university system had built a larger international base before the downturn. Arizona’s public universities grew international enrollment by 50% since 2020, and the system now faces a projected decline of about 2,000 students, roughly 1% of the state university system. At ASU, the forecast still points to a projected 158,000 students this fall, including 84,600 online and 73,400 on campus. More than 9,000 Arizonans are joining as first-year students.
Visa rules are cutting the pipeline
The Arizona numbers fit a wider national slide. NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International projected the U.S. could lose 111,000 fewer international students this year, costing the country up to $3.4 billion in lost revenue and nearly 40,000 fewer jobs. International applicants fell 10% in the 2026–27 cycle, the steepest decline on record in that dataset.
Reporting ties the drop to President Donald Trump’s intensified student visa regulations and the halt in new visas for applicants from dozens of countries. The pipeline has narrowed fast.
One 2026 report said nearly 85% of universities identified restrictive government policies or visa problems as the main reason for the decline.
Arizona built the boom before the bust
The University of Arizona’s internal data showed the pressure spreading beyond foreign applicants. Overall applications fell about 24% for in-state students and 33% for out-of-state students, alongside the 81% slide in international applications. The trend is expected to continue into the 2026–27 academic year.
