(AUSTRALIA) — Australian student visa refusals for South Asians climbed to record highs in 2026, with offshore refusals reaching 32.5% in February 2026, the highest monthly rate for higher education visas in 20 years, while the United States also posted refusal rates above 60% and, in some cases, above 80% for applicants from the region.

Applicants from India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka faced the sharpest setbacks in Australia, where refusals more than doubled the 2025 peak of 15.5%. South Asian applicants accounted for nearly half of refusals despite ranking among Australia’s top 10 source markets.

In the United States, F-1 refusal rates also rose to record levels in 2025-2026, with Indian refusal rates climbing from 53% in 2024 to 61% in 2025, and reaching 61% in April 2026 alone. The trend disproportionately affected South Asians as officials tightened screening and expanded reviews.

Australia’s figures stood out for their speed as well as their scale. Officials refused nearly one in three offshore higher education applications in February 2026, a level not seen in two decades.

Nepal recorded the highest refusal rates among the South Asian markets listed, with 69% overall in January-March 2026 and 73% in March. 60.2% was also cited for Nepal, and more than 5,000 applications were lodged after approval rates above 90% in 2025.

India’s refusal rate in Australia reached 42%, with 40% also cited. More than 7,000 applications were lodged, and India shifted to Evidence Level 3, bringing stricter financial and academic checks.

Bangladesh recorded a refusal rate of 45%, with 47.2% also cited, across about 3,800 applications. Sri Lanka stood at 41%, while Pakistan was lower at 37%, though still far above the levels many universities had grown used to in earlier years.

Policy changes in Australia added pressure. Simplified Student Visa Framework, or SSVF, reclassifications moved some applicants into higher risk levels, while Temporary Graduate visa, subclass 485, fees doubled to AUD 4,600 effective March 1, 2026, and living-cost thresholds rose.

Those shifts arrived as the sector was already weakening. Visa grants fell to 34,000 in January-February 2026, the lowest since 2013, excluding COVID.

Sector experts cited fraud concerns and political pressure to reduce migration. Some described the pattern as “blanket refusals” from South Asia, with genuine applicants caught in assessments.

The United States followed a different policy path but produced a similar outcome. Under Trump administration policies, social media screening was treated as a “visa document,” and authorities expanded OPT/STEM reviews for 39 countries, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Indian applicants, the largest US student group, faced refusal rates of 61-63%. Applicants with strong academic records were denied over “immigrant intent” tied to STEM plans.

Nepal’s recent US refusal rate reached 81%, up from 59%. Bangladesh stood at 73%, and processing delays of 45-90 days were cited, including more than 5,000 cases in New Delhi.

Pakistan’s refusal rate reached 71%, with more than 2,100 cases in Karachi. Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan were all described as being on a Special Scrutiny list.

Regional disparities widened across the US system. Overall Asian refusal rates hit 41%, compared with 3% for Chinese applicants and 9% for Europeans.

Refusals were “structurally concentrated” in the Global South, and some consulates were described as shifting to “denial-by-default” while administrative processing backlogs grew. Gupta, identified as an expert, warned that one anti-US social media post can trigger rejection.

Australia and the United States are not using identical rules, but both systems tightened around the same concerns: migration control, fraud detection, and stricter proof requirements. In Australia, risk settings and cost changes cut into grant numbers; in the United States, screening expanded beyond academic and financial records into online activity and post-study work pathways.

The pressure fell hardest on South Asians because these countries supply large numbers of international students while also drawing extra scrutiny under risk-based frameworks. That produced refusal rates above 30% across multiple markets in Australia and above 60% across several markets in the United States, with Nepal’s figures moving even higher.

Universities and recruiters now face a smaller pool of successful applicants from countries that had become central to international enrolment growth. Families weighing tuition deposits, travel costs and evidence requirements confront a system in which past approval patterns no longer offer much guidance.

Students from South Asia are already pivoting to other destinations, including Germany, the UK and Ireland, as fraud probes and capacity caps reshape the market. The shift reflects a stark message from 2026: two of the world’s biggest study destinations have made entry much harder for the same regional group at the same time.