- Mass deportations linked to job losses for American-born workers and undocumented labor alike.
- A May twenty twenty-six study shows no significant wage increases for domestic workers after removals.
- The economic impact includes reduced national G-D-P and billions in lost tax revenue.
A May 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research study linked immigration arrests and removals to a 5 percent employment decline among male undocumented workers and a 1.3 percent decline among male American-born workers without a college degree. Employers did not raise wages to draw those U.S.-born workers into the affected jobs.
The study found that work slowed across industries including agriculture, construction, manufacturing and wholesale. Labor did not simply shift from immigrants to U.S.-born employees.
The findings challenge the idea that removing immigrant labor automatically improves prospects for American workers. They also connect enforcement to weaker economic growth, particularly in industries that depend on a large supply of workers.
A separate July 2026 analysis said immigration policies reduced U.S. GDP by 0.2 percent and cut consumer spending by $60 billion in 2025. The analysis also tied tighter labor supply to a sharp slowdown in Texas job growth.
Texas added 10,000 jobs as annual growth nearly stopped
Texas job growth fell from an average of 2 percent a year to 0.01 percent in 2025, according to the analysis. The state added only 10,000 new jobs.
The slowdown appeared as labor-intensive businesses faced fewer available workers. Reports from the meat-packing and agriculture sectors described large absenteeism and labor shortages after immigration raids, including raids on California farms.
The effects can reach consumers and businesses at the same time. Fewer workers can limit production, while reduced household income can weaken spending at stores, restaurants and other businesses.
A University of Colorado Boulder study released in May 2026 reached a similar conclusion about U.S.-born employment. Associate Professor Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox estimated that each 1 million unauthorized immigrants removed could cost approximately 88,000 U.S.-born workers their jobs through lower business investment and consumer demand.
Long-term projections show a wider economic contraction
A September 2024 Peterson Institute for International Economics report by Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan and Marcus Noland projected that large-scale removal could reduce U.S. GDP by 2.6% to 7.4% by 2028.
The projection covers a broader policy scenario than the May NBER study. Both point toward weaker output rather than a clean substitution of immigrant labor with native-born workers.
Other research has found that immigrant labor can expand employment and output. A separate study of immigration restrictions in the 1920s linked those restrictions to reduced innovation and prosperity. Another 2026 analysis projected that a mass-removal scenario could lower GDP, wages and labor-force growth over time.
The evidence does not describe a uniform effect across every worker or industry. It points instead to particular risks for lower-skilled men, labor-intensive employers and regions where businesses rely heavily on immigrant labor.
The government could face hundreds of billions in removal costs
The American Immigration Council estimated in October 2024 that a one-time operation targeting 13.3 million people would cost at least $315 billion. A 10-year operation would exceed $967.9 billion, according to the organization.
The fiscal effects would extend beyond the enforcement budget. Undocumented immigrants contributed nearly $100 billion in federal, state and local taxes in 2022. Losing 10 percent of that population would reduce annual tax revenue by an estimated $9.7 billion.
Jeremy Robbins, executive director of the American Immigration Council, described the projected program this way:
“Should any president choose to pursue mass deportation, it would come at an extraordinary cost to the government while also devastating the economy. thousands of families torn apart causing widespread terror and chaos.”
Nan Wu, the organization’s director of research, said the tax contributions made by immigrants would be used against the broader population under such a plan.
“Immigrants have paid up the hard-earned tax dollars that are now going to be used to punish all Americans through a wasteful and cruel mass deportation plan.”
Housing costs fell in some metros as spending weakened
A January 14, 2026 White House press release claimed that large-scale removals lowered housing costs in 14 of the 20 largest metropolitan areas.
The Brookings Institution’s Metro Monitor 2026 offered a different interpretation. It described the cooling as a sign of regional contraction and estimated lost consumer spending at $60 billion to $110 billion across 2025 and 2026.
Lower housing costs can accompany weaker demand. If households leave, lose income or stop spending, rents and home prices may soften while local businesses lose customers.
The analysis also placed the labor-market changes in a broader migration context. Net migration to the United States was likely negative in 2025 for the first time in 50 years, with Brookings estimating between –295,000 and –10,000 net movers.
Enforcement expanded while legal status processing slowed
Large-scale enforcement efforts intensified after Proclamation 10903, issued March 14, 2025. The proclamation invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 against Venezuelan nationals alleged to belong to the Tren de Aragua gang.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit blocked use of the act in September 2025. The court ruled that a “predatory incursion” by migrants did not amount to a military invasion that could justify wartime powers.
Separately, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services slowed DACA renewals in 2026. A May 8, 2026 Policy Alert, titled Deferred Action as an Extraordinary Use of Prosecutorial Discretion, recast the program as a limited, case-by-case benefit rather than categorical protection. Many applicants faced waits exceeding six months.
Rep. Gabe Evans wrote to Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin on July 1, 2026, warning that renewal delays were causing legal residents to lose jobs and creating “sudden financial strain” for American families.
Mullin became secretary after the Senate confirmed him in March 2026. He replaced Kristi Noem on March 31, 2026, after Noem referred to two U.S. citizens killed in a Minneapolis raid as “domestic terrorists.”
Officials defend enforcement as economists warn of lost labor
Tom Homan, the White House “Border Czar” and former ICE director, defended the enforcement campaign at the Border Security Expo on May 7, 2026.
“Immigration officers arrested more than half a million undocumented immigrants last year. and are now making about 1,200 arrests a day. We don't deport US citizens, but we will return the rule of law.”
Homan also responded to Pope Francis’s criticism on Feb 11, 2025, saying: “He ought to focus on his work and leave enforcement to us. He’s got a wall around the Vatican, does he not?”
Mullin defended the administration’s “Shield of the Americas” initiative in testimony on March 18, 2026. He said the department would be “adequately staffed” to fulfill President Trump’s mandate despite continuing budget shutdowns.
The economic studies measure a different consequence. Their findings associate removals with fewer jobs, weaker demand and reduced output, rather than a broad wage boost for American-born workers.
This article provides general information and is not legal advice. Consult a qualified immigration attorney about your specific case.
