- UNHCR and IOM recorded 1,228,920 returns to Afghanistan through October 2026, including 506,410 deportations.
- Pakistan and Iran accounted for nearly all recorded arrivals; 96% cited fear of arrest among surveyed returnees from Pakistan.
- UN officials warned that arrivals are straining services, while 29% still had savings among recently returned Afghans.
UNHCR and IOM recorded 1,228,920 returns to Afghanistan from January 1 through October 2026, including 506,410 deportations. Many people also left under pressure from host-country authorities or fear of detention.
An earlier UN estimate put the total at 1.15 million Afghans between January 1 and August 22, 2026. That count included 686,200 arrivals from Pakistan, 465,000 from Iran and about 1,300 from Tajikistan.
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The figures track different reporting periods. They also count more than formal removals.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said on October 6, 2026, that returns from Pakistan must be voluntary, safe and dignified. He said:
“For decades, Pakistan opened its doors to millions of Afghans fleeing conflict and instability,” and “The United Nations is committed to working with Pakistan to ensure that protection principles are respected and that the return of Afghans is voluntary, safe and dignified.”
The agency totals include formal deportations, assisted returns and other departures by Afghans with different legal statuses. Some people may leave after detention threats, economic hardship or pressure to leave, even without a formal deportation order.
Pakistan and Iran account for nearly all recorded returns
Figures published October 5 show that Pakistan and Iran were the main sources of arrivals. The remainder came from other countries, including Tajikistan.
| Country of departure | Recorded returns in 2026 | Deportations included |
|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | approximately 705,400 | about 66,100 |
| Iran | approximately 522,200 | about 439,000 |
| Other countries | approximately 1,320 | Not specified in the breakdown |
The totals are not a direct measure of how many people chose to leave freely. The International Organization for Migration’s July monitoring found that 96% of surveyed returnees from Pakistan cited fear of arrest as their principal reason for going back.
Iran’s numbers also vary across reporting periods and datasets. One account put deportations at 79% of documented returns. A separate UNHCR/IOM tally recorded 484,800 returns from Iran by August 29, of which 404,400 were classified as deportations.
At the Islam Qala crossing, a senior Taliban border official described 20 to 40 families per day, including women and girls, returning independently. Some had lived outside Afghanistan for years or decades and arrived with limited social networks.
Years of arrivals have outpaced Afghanistan’s ability to absorb them
The 2026 movement follows approximately 2.9 million returns in 2025. Since September 2023, UNHCR has recorded more than six million returns from neighboring countries, including deportations, assisted repatriation and other forms of return.
A separate estimate counted nearly 5.9 million Afghans returning from Iran and Pakistan over that period, a movement that increased Afghanistan’s population by an estimated 10%–12% in just over two years. The estimates use different counts and scopes.
The present wave follows the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, after two decades of war involving the United States and the former Afghan government. People returning from Iran and Pakistan include those who left under pressure, those who accepted assistance to repatriate and people who departed on their own.
Georgette Gagnon, acting head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, presented a UN report to the Security Council on September 16, 2026. It warned that large-scale arrivals were adding pressure to labor markets and communities’ ability to absorb returnees, weakening prospects for sustainable reintegration.
Housing, work, public services, civil documentation and protection can all be difficult to secure after arrival. Afghanistan’s labor market and humanitarian capacity are already under strain.
Families arrive with few savings and heavy service needs
IOM data cited in October reporting found that just 29% of recently returned Afghans still had savings. Average incomes had dropped by almost one-third from pre-crisis levels.
A separate account of returnee households found that nearly 90% earned less than 5,000 Afghanis per month. It also reported that 77% had faced periods without enough food or money.
UNICEF reported that more than 6.4 million Afghans had returned since 2023, with women and children making up more than half. In Afghanistan, approximately 17.4 million people needed urgent food assistance.
The agency projected that 4.9 million women and children would need malnutrition treatment in 2026, including approximately 3.7 million children under five. Those needs compound the pressure on local services and housing.
UN officials press for protection and reintegration support
Naseer Ahmad Faiq, Afghanistan’s representative to the United Nations, told the Security Council that dialogue between the Taliban and foreign governments could not produce a lasting solution without Afghan participation.
On September 6, 2026, acting Afghan foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met with Arafat Jamal, UNHCR’s representative in Afghanistan. The Afghan Foreign Ministry said they discussed safe and dignified returns, support after arrival and coordination among countries and organizations involved in the process.
The United Nations has urged Pakistan to respect non-refoulement, the principle that generally bars returning people to places where they may face persecution, torture or other serious harm. It has also called for sustained assistance to help returnees rebuild their lives.
Charlie Goodlake, senior executive assistant to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and UNHCR’s head of fundraising in Afghanistan, described conditions in the country starkly: “Things couldn’t be more difficult here.” He said as many as two million additional refugees could be pushed back into Afghanistan by the end of 2026.
