(AUSTRALIA) — Australia recorded its lowest monthly higher education student visa grant rate in at least 21 years in February 2026, with approvals falling to 67.6% as refusals climbed sharply for applicants from Bangladesh and other South Asian countries.

Bangladesh posted a 51% refusal rate, the highest among tracked countries, in a month that set a record high for Australian student visa rejections in higher education. The figures have raised concern for Bangladeshi applicants planning to study in Australia.

The February outcome also fell below the previous low of 68.1% set in September 2023 during post-Covid border reopenings. That made February 2026 a new low point for monthly grant rates over more than two decades.

Rejections were especially elevated across South Asia. India recorded a 40% rejection rate, Sri Lanka 38%, Bhutan 36%, Bangladesh 51%, and Nepal 65%.

At the same time, application volumes from several of those countries rose sharply from a year earlier. Lodgements from Bangladesh increased 51% compared with February 2025, India rose 36%, and Nepal climbed 91%.

China moved in the opposite direction. Its application volume fell 39% to the lowest level in 12 years.

Those two movements — rising applications from the Indian subcontinent and a drop from China — helped reshape the February caseload. The shift mattered because the source of applications changed away from a country described as having high approval rates.

Australian authorities have been scrutinizing whether applicants meet the Genuine Temporary Entrant, or GTE, test. That scrutiny was cited as a central factor behind the higher refusal rates.

The GTE assessment goes to the question of whether a student is entering Australia on a temporary basis for study. In February, that test took on more weight for countries where refusal rates rose as application numbers also increased.

For Bangladesh, the combination was stark. A 51% refusal rate paired with a 51% rise in lodgements meant a larger pool of applicants encountered a harsher outcome than in prior periods.

India also saw pressure on both fronts. Rejections reached 40% while lodgements climbed 36%, placing one of Australia’s biggest international student source markets under tighter approval conditions.

Nepal’s figures were even more severe on refusals. Its 65% rejection rate came alongside a 91% jump in lodgements, making it the highest refusal rate among the countries listed, though Bangladesh remained the highest among tracked countries in the headline measure highlighted for concern.

Sri Lanka and Bhutan also faced elevated refusal levels at 38% and 36%. Together, the numbers pointed to broad pressure across parts of South Asia rather than an isolated change affecting one market.

The February data also carried consequences beyond individual applicants. Visa refusals now feed into the way institutions are assessed in Australia’s immigration risk system.

Refusals account for 10% of “evidence level” calculations used in immigration risk ratings. That means a sustained rise in denials can affect how education providers are classified.

For universities and colleges, those ratings matter. Persistent high rejection rates could lead to unfavorable institutional ratings and affect reputations.

Private colleges face particular exposure because they already confront ongoing moderate or high risk ratings. A month like February, with rejection rates reaching record highs, adds pressure to that part of the sector.

That creates a second layer of concern around student visa rejections. The issue no longer stops with whether an individual applicant receives a grant or refusal; it also reaches providers that depend on international enrolments and are judged partly through visa outcomes.

The International Education Association of Australia responded by calling for a “blanket moratorium” on rating changes during the next September 2026 assessment. The group linked that request to what it called the “massive increase” in rejections.

That appeal reflects a broader planning problem for Australian higher education. When refusal rates rise quickly and unevenly across countries, both institutions and students face more uncertainty around admissions, enrolment targets and travel plans.

For Bangladeshi students, that uncertainty has become more acute. The 51% refusal rate was the highest rate identified among tracked countries in the February data highlighted here, putting Bangladesh at the center of concern.

The alarm is not only about one month’s result. February 2026 also marked the lowest monthly grant rate in at least 21 years, giving the Bangladesh figures wider meaning because they landed during a historic deterioration in approvals overall.

Applicants from Bangladesh now face a more difficult environment for Australian higher education visas than many had anticipated. The rise in refusals sends a warning to those preparing applications, arranging finances or making study plans around an Australian course start.

The broader regional pattern adds to that pressure. When Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Nepal all show elevated refusal rates in the same month, the signal to prospective applicants is not limited to one national market.

The China comparison sharpens that picture. A 39% decline in Chinese lodgements to the lowest volume in 12 years reduced the weight of a high-approval source country in the overall mix, while the share from the Indian subcontinent increased.

That caseload shift helps explain why the overall approval rate fell to 67.6%. A portfolio with fewer applications from a traditionally stronger approval market and more from countries facing closer GTE scrutiny is more likely to produce lower grant rates.

Even so, the February figures stand out on their own terms. They did not merely continue an existing trend; they pushed the monthly grant rate below the previous record low of 68.1% from September 2023.

That earlier low came during post-Covid border reopenings, a period already marked by unusual movement in international education. February 2026 went lower still.

For institutions, the timing matters because the next September 2026 assessment now looms over planning cycles. If refusal rates remain high, providers could face ratings pressure at the same moment they are trying to recruit students in an unsettled visa environment.

Private colleges may feel that pressure first. Their moderate or high risk ratings leave less room to absorb further deterioration in visa outcomes before reputational and compliance concerns become harder to contain.

Universities also have reason to watch the trend closely. Because refusals make up 10% of “evidence level” calculations, repeated months of elevated denials can feed into a broader institutional profile rather than staying confined to one admissions cycle.

For students, the practical effect appears in the planning stage. A tougher approval environment can alter decisions about where to apply, when to apply and whether to pursue Australia at all for higher education.

Bangladeshi applicants are likely to weigh those risks more heavily after February’s results. The headline number — 51% refused — is hard to ignore for students and families considering tuition commitments and study plans.

The concern extends beyond immediate refusals. The figures point to a wider recalibration in how applications from parts of South Asia are being examined under GTE standards.

That leaves Australian higher education with a tension between demand and access. Lodgements from Bangladesh, India and Nepal increased strongly, yet approval outcomes worsened as that demand grew.

February’s data captured that mismatch in stark terms. More students applied from several South Asian countries, but more of them were turned away.

For Bangladesh, the message was sharper than anywhere else in the tracked group highlighted by the data. A refusal rate of 51% placed Bangladeshi applicants at the center of a month that set a record high for higher education student visa rejections in Australia.

With the International Education Association of Australia seeking a “blanket moratorium” before the next September 2026 assessment, the pressure now sits on both policy and planning. For Bangladeshi students looking toward Australian higher education, the latest figures have turned student visa rejections from a background risk into the defining fact of the moment.