OPT Shutdown: Potential Drop in H-1B Demand and 194,554 OPTs

Plans to shut down Optional Practical Training (OPT) would not only hit international students, they would reshape the entire U.S. system that links study, work, and long‑term immigration through H‑1B jobs and, for some, a Green Card. For now, OPT remains in place. But a growing political push to end it has raised real questions about what happens to future H‑1B cap numbers, employer hiring patterns, and the long‑term supply of skilled workers in the United States 🇺🇸.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, OPT has become so deeply tied to the H‑1B process that removing it would change both the number and type of workers who end up in the H‑1B lottery. The impact would come in two waves: a short‑term drop in H‑1B demand, followed by a long‑term weakening of the U.S. talent pipeline as fewer international students choose American universities.

Political push to end OPT and current program scale

On December 4, 2025, thirteen Republican lawmakers sent a letter to White House officials calling for a complete shutdown of OPT. They described the program as “dangerously unauthorised, abused, and costly to the American taxpayer” and claimed it “has never been riper for repeal.”

The lawmakers argue that OPT, created in 1992, acts as a way around the H‑1B cap and lets employers hire foreign graduates at lower wages, putting U.S. workers at a disadvantage.

The size of the program is central to the political fight:

• In 2024, 194,554 foreign students received work permission through OPT.
• Of those, 95,384 were on STEM OPT extensions.
• Most recipients came from India and China.
• About 25% of all international students in the U.S. are from India, so any move to end OPT would hit Indian students particularly hard.

Official information about how students request OPT is published by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), including filing Form I-765 Application for Employment Authorization, which is available on the USCIS website. While the lawmakers’ letter attacks the legal basis and cost of the program, it does not yet change the rules. However, it sets the stage for potential policy action that could affect future H‑1B and Green Card plans for hundreds of thousands of students.

OPT as the central bridge from study to H‑1B and Green Card

In practice, most foreign students who aim for long‑term careers in the U.S. follow a standard path:

• F‑1 Student → OPT / STEM OPT (1–3 years) → H‑1B → Green Card

OPT is the bridge. It gives graduates 1–3 years of work experience after completion of their degree. During this time, employers can assess skills, cultural fit, and performance before deciding whether to invest in H‑1B sponsorship, which usually means filing Form I-129 Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker with USCIS.

For many, this is also the period when long‑term plans take shape. If an employer later supports permanent residence, they may move into employment‑based immigrant categories by filing Form I-140 Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker, and the worker might eventually apply for a Green Card through Form I-485 Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status. Each of these forms and their instructions are available on the official USCIS website.

Without OPT, this multi‑step ladder becomes much harder to climb. Employers would have to decide whether to sponsor an H‑1B almost immediately after graduation, with little or no U.S. work history to guide that decision.

Short‑term H‑1B effects: fewer registrations and less lottery pressure

In the short term—roughly the first 1–3 years after any shutdown—ending OPT would likely reduce H‑1B cap demand rather than increase it.

Today, more than 750,000 H‑1B registrations are submitted each year for just 85,000 available cap‑subject slots. With OPT in place, many of those registrations are for F‑1 graduates working in the U.S. who have already shown their skills during OPT or STEM OPT. If that work period disappears, employers face a blunt choice: sponsor a worker fresh out of school with no U.S. job record, or hire from the domestic labor pool.

Most companies, especially small and mid‑sized employers, would be reluctant to sponsor right away. That would likely cause:

• Fewer first‑time H‑1B registrations
• Less competition in the H‑1B lottery
• Reduced pressure on the 85,000‑visa cap

In this early phase, some H‑1B hopefuls might actually find better odds in the lottery, simply because fewer people are entering. But this benefit would be uneven: it would mostly help those who already have strong backing from major employers ready to sponsor early, while shutting out many students who, under current rules, win employer trust during OPT.

Long‑term impact: fewer students, fewer H‑1B candidates, weaker pipeline

Over 5–10 years, the bigger effect would be on whether students choose the United States for study in the first place. Many families accept high U.S. tuition fees because OPT offers a real chance at U.S. work experience and, potentially, a later H‑1B and Green Card.

If OPT ends, international students—especially in STEM fields—are likely to compare other countries more seriously. Popular alternatives already include:

• Canada 🇨🇦 — Post‑Graduation Work Permit (PGWP)
• United Kingdom — Graduate Route
• Australia — 485 Temporary Graduate Visa
• Germany — Job Seeker Visa
• Other countries that link study more directly to work and long‑term residence

The result would be fewer international students in U.S. programs that traditionally lead into H‑1B roles. Universities could see sharp drops in enrollment in engineering, computer science, and other STEM degrees where Indian and Asian students make up a large share of the class.

That means fewer U.S.‑trained graduates feeding into H‑1B roles in sectors lawmakers identify as sensitive, including defense research, telecommunications, semiconductors, and missile and space systems. Over time, this cuts into the pool of workers who are both highly trained and already familiar with U.S. workplace norms, which many employers value.

Changing employer strategies: campus hiring to offshore H‑1B use

OPT has allowed employers to treat international students somewhat like domestic hires: recruit on campus, run internships or training programs, then move strong performers into H‑1B roles. Without OPT, that model breaks.

Likely employer responses include:

• Sponsorship reserved for top‑tier candidates only, often from elite universities or with rare skills
• More direct offshore hiring, especially in India, Canada, and Latin America, with H‑1B petitions filed for people who never studied in the U.S.
• Greater reliance on outsourcing and IT service companies, which already manage large overseas teams
• Less willingness to hire fresh graduates, since employers can no longer “test” them during OPT years

This changes not just the number of H‑1B petitions but also the profile of beneficiaries. Rather than a mix of U.S.‑educated graduates and experienced foreign professionals, the balance would tilt toward people hired abroad, often through established outsourcing networks.

Outsourcing firms and the risk of lottery dominance returning

Even today, many of the top H‑1B recipients are large IT service and outsourcing companies. OPT has given U.S.‑educated students a way to compete with those bulk filers by gaining practical experience and building direct relationships with U.S. employers.

If OPT ends, several outcomes become more likely:

• Indian outsourcing companies capture a larger share of the 85,000 annual H‑1B slots
• U.S. tech companies move more work offshore, rather than sponsoring recent graduates
• Fresh graduates lose key training years, leaving them less prepared for advanced roles, whether in the U.S. or abroad

In effect, the H‑1B system could drift back toward a model where large service providers file thousands of petitions at once, while individual students and smaller employers struggle to compete. That runs counter to the stated goal of many policymakers who say they want the H‑1B program to serve the “best and brightest” educated in the United States.

Possible policy responses: cap changes and new student work visas

If OPT disappears, U.S. universities and employers will not stay quiet. Universities lose a major selling point for international recruitment, and companies face a tighter talent pool, especially in STEM fields. Together, they are likely to push lawmakers for broad changes.

Policy ideas already discussed include:

• Raising the H‑1B annual cap to better match employer demand
• Creating a new visa category for U.S.‑educated graduates, similar to post‑study work routes in the UK and Canada
• Automatic work rights for STEM graduates from accredited U.S. universities
• Giving priority in H‑1B selection to U.S.‑educated students, either through separate caps or higher selection chances

If such measures pass, the long‑term result could be more H‑1B visas and, eventually, more employment‑based Green Card pathways than exist today. In that sense, an OPT shutdown might trigger reforms that lawmakers have delayed for years. But that process would likely be slow, and the gap years in between could be painful for students, employers, and universities.

Practical stakes for students, H‑1B hopefuls, employers, and universities

Key effects by stakeholder:

International students on F‑1 visas

• Those already on OPT or STEM OPT would worry about program stability and timing of H‑1B sponsorship.
• New applicants might rethink U.S. study plans, especially if they depend on U.S. work experience to pay off education costs.
• Many will compare U.S. options with countries that promise clearer post‑study work and residence routes.

H‑1B aspirants

• Current H‑1B holders are not directly targeted by the OPT debate, so their status remains more stable in the near term.
• Future H‑1B seekers may face fewer opportunities from U.S.‑based employers if those employers cut back on sponsoring fresh graduates.
• Those with strong overseas job offers might pursue H‑1B sponsorship from abroad rather than through U.S. study.

U.S. employers

• Companies that depend on a steady flow of international graduates—especially in tech, research, and advanced manufacturing—would have to redesign hiring plans.
• Some will invest more in offshore centers; others may push harder for domestic training programs, though that takes time.
• HR and legal teams would need to rethink how they use OPT, H‑1B, and long‑term Green Card sponsorship as part of workforce planning.

Universities and colleges

• STEM‑heavy institutions, where foreign students make up a large share of enrollment, could face sharp budget and program pressures.
• Many will likely increase lobbying in Washington for new post‑study work options or H‑1B preferences tied to U.S. degrees.
• Recruitment messaging to students abroad would have to adjust, with less emphasis on OPT and more on academic or research strengths.

The core issue for all groups is the same: OPT has been the main fuel feeding the H‑1B pipeline, and for a share of workers that pipeline ends in a Green Card. Ending OPT would not simply trim that flow; it would force a redesign of how the United States 🇺🇸 attracts, tests, and keeps global talent in the years ahead.