A new wave of policy actions across DHS, DOS, and USCIS is driving a sizable reduction in expected green card issuances over 2025–2029, with federal officials framing it as an “America First” shift that prioritizes enforcement and rigorous screening over benefits processing. The headline estimate is large: up to 2.4 million fewer green cards issued than prior trend lines projected.
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) analysis describes the 1.5 to 2.4 million figure as a multi-year projection, not an annual statutory cap. That distinction matters. U.S. immigration law sets numerical limits for many categories, yet the number of green cards actually issued can fall below those limits when cases stall, interviews get delayed, eligibility rules change, or applications are denied or abandoned.
“Fewer green cards” can show up in several practical ways. Examples include fewer completed consular immigrant visas because cases cannot move to issuance, fewer adjustment filings that reach approval, slower adjudications due to added screening steps, and higher denial rates or case closures when applicants lose eligibility midstream.
Readers should note effective dates and how they affect in-progress filings, interviews, and eligibility determinations.
Family-based, employment-based, and humanitarian pathways can all be affected, but not in identical ways. A person in the United States might still pursue adjustment of status in some situations. Someone abroad is usually dependent on consular processing, where interruptions can stop a case at the final stage.
Official Statements and Authorities
USCIS, DHS, and DOS each touch different parts of the pipeline. USCIS controls most adjudications inside the United States, including many adjustment filings. DHS sets enforcement posture and agency priorities across immigration functions. DOS controls consular processing abroad, including immigrant visa issuance.
USCIS Director Joseph B. Edlow has described the posture as “America First,” tying benefits decisions more closely to screening, fraud detection, and enforcement referrals. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem has publicly emphasized removals and system “integrity,” signaling that enforcement outcomes are being treated as a core metric.
Operationally, two changes matter for applicants even when the legal category stays the same. First, USCIS created the “Homeland Defenders” unit to strengthen screening and vetting of green card and citizenship applicants, which can mean more delays, more RFEs, and more in-person interviews. Second, fraud referrals increased, with Director Edlow stating that more fraud referrals to law enforcement occurred in 2025 than during the previous four years combined.
DOS actions can be even more direct. When consular processing is halted for a set of nationalities, approvals may be ready on paper but still not reach issuance, freezing cases at the final stage.
Key Policy Details Driving the Reduction
Several policy levers reduce green card issuances by either shrinking the flow of eligible people, slowing approvals, or increasing denials and removals during the process. Below are the principal levers and how they operate in practice.
Country-based immigrant visa processing halt (75 countries). On January 14, 2026, DOS announced a halt in immigrant visa processing for nationals of 75 countries, effective January 21, 2026. For many applicants abroad, an immigrant visa interview and issuance are the final steps. A halt at that stage can freeze cases that are otherwise documentarily complete and may shift pressure to alternative paths that are often unrealistic for many families and workers abroad.
Termination of parole programs (CHNV and FRP). The administration terminated the Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan (CHNV) Parole Programs and Family Reunification Parole (FRP). While parole is not a green card, it can function as a bridge that allows entry, continued presence, and sometimes a later adjustment filing. Ending parole programs reduces the pool of people who can reach adjustment eligibility.
TPS terminations (Somalia and Ethiopia). DHS moved to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for multiple countries, including Somalia effective March 17, 2026, and Ethiopia. TPS stabilizes work authorization and lawful presence; its termination can cause loss of work authorization, removability, and interruption of pending cases.
Post-approval review and country-linked reexaminations. After a security incident on November 26, 2025, USCIS was directed to conduct a “full-scale, rigorous reexamination” of green cards previously issued to individuals from 19 high-risk countries. These reexaminations shift staff time from new case processing to reviewing existing files and can raise risk of rescission or removal for some individuals.
Operation PARRIS refugee background checks. Operation PARRIS adds new background checks and intensive verification for refugee cases. Added checks typically lengthen adjudications and can reduce completed approvals in a given year despite unchanged eligibility rules.
Legislative and funding shifts. The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” signed in July 2025, funded border enforcement and ICE operations while shifting USCIS priorities toward enforcement activities rather than benefits processing. When staffing and leadership attention move toward enforcement support, benefits queues may grow and throughput fall.
An interactive tool is planned to present the major policy levers and their projected impacts. The tool will show affected categories, authorities, and immediately observable effects. The following prose summarizes the same details for readers who prefer narrative context.
Context and Significance
NFAP frames the estimate as a “with-policy” scenario compared to a “continued trend” baseline. In 2023, about 1.17 million people obtained green cards. Under prior patterns, NFAP projects 4.7 million green cards over a four-year period.
The current approach is projected to reduce that total by about 33% to 50%, yielding the 1.5 to 2.4 million reduction range. Realized issuances can drop even when demand is high because agency actions—added screening, halted consular issuances, and program terminations—interrupt flow.
A simple analogy helps. Think of lawful immigration as pipelines into a shared reservoir. Congress sets how much the reservoir can accept in many categories. Agencies control valves, filters, and inspection stations. Tightening those controls does not change demand, but it can reduce how much water reaches the reservoir each year.
Enforcement posture changes the experience during adjudications. USCIS officers are issuing Notices to Appear (NTAs) at higher levels, with about 196,600 NTAs issued since January 2025. An NTA can place an applicant into removal proceedings if USCIS concludes the person lacks status or is otherwise removable, which can shape case strategy and willingness to file without legal review.
Impact on Affected Individuals
Backlog dynamics tend to worsen when more cases require additional evidence and longer checks. Extra vetting may create a “pile-up” effect: each RFE pauses a case clock and consumes officer time, slowing unrelated cases. Short staffing in benefits units can add delays even for straightforward petitions.
Family-based applicants can feel the changes in two places. Relatives abroad often depend on DOS processing, so a nationality-based halt can stop the last step even after years of waiting. Relatives inside the United States may still seek adjustment in many cases, but added screening can increase interview depth and document requests. Timing errors can be costly.
Humanitarian populations face different pressures. TPS holders who lose protection can lose work authorization and become removable, which can disrupt employment and stability needed to gather records, pay fees, or attend appointments. Former parolees from CHNV or FRP may have fewer paths to remain lawfully present long enough to reach a green card stage.
Location often determines options. Someone in the United States may, in some cases, pursue adjustment filings if they remain eligible. Someone abroad may have no alternative when consular processing is frozen for their nationality.
Check case status, retain copies of notices, and anticipate additional RFEs or reviews as policies tighten.
Timeline of Key Dates and Actions
Dates shape outcomes because immigration rules often operate on two tracks: announcement dates and effective dates. An announcement can trigger immediate practical changes, like interview postponements or extra document requests. An effective date usually controls eligibility and whether a case can be approved or an immigrant visa issued.
Late 2025 set the stage. A security incident on November 26, 2025 was followed by directives tied to reexaminations. December 22, 2025 brought high-profile USCIS messaging from Director Edlow that signaled stronger screening and accountability.
January 2026 concentrated several shifts. January 14, 2026 preceded the consular halt’s January 21, 2026 effective date, a gap that can matter for interviews scheduled in between. January 20, 2026 also matters because DHS and USCIS messaging that day signaled enforcement and screening priorities that can influence officer discretion.
For TPS holders, March 17, 2026 is a hard edge for Somalia TPS. People with pending filings often track several dates at once: receipt notices, interview letters, document-expiration dates, and any notice that suggests a reopen, a Notice of Intent to Deny, or an NTA risk.
An interactive timeline tool will be provided for a visual sequence of announcements and effective dates. The following narrative lists the key events and their dates.
Key events and dates:
- Security incident followed by reexamination directives: November 26, 2025 — Post-approval review and re-checks that can slow new adjudications.
- USCIS “America First” messaging from Director Edlow: December 22, 2025 — Adjudication posture; screening intensity and fraud referrals.
- DOS announces immigrant visa processing halt for 75 countries: January 14, 2026 — Consular pipeline disruption begins; scheduling uncertainty.
- DOS halt becomes effective: January 21, 2026 — Immigrant visa issuance stops for affected nationals.
- DHS and USCIS public enforcement-and-screening messaging: January 20, 2026 — Higher scrutiny during filings and interviews; enforcement referrals.
- Somalia TPS termination effective: March 17, 2026 — Loss of protection affecting work authorization and removability.
- “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” signed: July 2025 — Funding priorities that can shift staffing toward enforcement.
Official Sources and Further Reading
USCIS, DHS, and DOS notices control the rules that matter in real cases. Applicants typically benefit from checking official updates at least weekly during fast-changing periods, then saving dated copies for their records.
USCIS materials are often the most relevant for people filing inside the United States. Start with the USCIS Newsroom and USCIS Policy Manual, then keep copies of any pages that relate to your category. Use official case trackers for receipts and notices, including USCIS Case Status Online and myUSCIS.
Paper records still matter. Save appointment letters, biometrics notices, RFE response packets, and proof of delivery. Keep a clean timeline of every filing and notice. For many cases, the difference between approval and denial can turn on a date printed on a government form.
Watch the effective dates closely, including January 21, 2026 and March 17, 2026. Act early if a filing deadline or status end-date is approaching.
This article discusses policy changes and projections that affect legal status and benefits; treat official statements as guidance, not guarantees. Individual cases vary; consult official USCIS/DHS/DOS notices for current eligibility.
