Will Long-Term ATC Staffing Persist After the 2025 Shutdown?

(UNITED STATES) The nation’s aviation system is bracing for a prolonged squeeze even after the federal government reopens, with air traffic control operations expected to face a long tail of staffing trouble that began years ago and worsened during the 2025 shutdown. The stoppage, which started on October 1, 2025, disrupted training and pushed more controllers to retire or step away, adding stress to a workforce that was already stretched.

Airlines and travelers should expect delays and cancellations to continue into the medium term, because the shortage cannot be fixed quickly and the pipeline for new controllers will take years to refill.

Pre-shutdown staffing reality

Before the shutdown, the Federal Aviation Administration had a gap experts had long warned about: the agency was roughly 3,800 certified controllers below its target staffing. That left about 10,800 fully certified controllers in late 2024, compared with an estimated need of about 14,600.

These figures reflect years of uneven hiring and a steady flow of retirements in a profession that depends on real-time decision-making and rigid safety standards. When a sudden budget standoff forces the system to run on fewer people for longer hours, the pressure compounds quickly.

Immediate effects of the 2025 shutdown

What changed during the shutdown was the day-to-day strain. Controllers kept towers and centers operating, but many did so without pay — a stressor that cascaded into higher sick leave and attrition.

• Retirements surged to between 15 and 20 per day, according to internal tallies.
• Some employees called off work; others resigned outright, citing financial strain and burnout.
• Each lost controller reduces certified coverage and increases overtime for those who remain, feeding fatigue and more departures.

Training pipeline: slow and delicate

The pipeline that normally brings in new talent also ground to a halt. Training a controller can take 2 to 5 years to move from entry-level trainee to a fully certified controller who can work all positions in a tower or center.

• The FAA Academy in Oklahoma City, the system’s sole gateway for formal classroom training, paused new classes during the shutdown.
• That single pause will echo for months: each delayed start date pushes back on-the-job training at facilities that rely on steady trainee inflows to offset retirements.

Front-line conditions and morale

Facilities most affected by the long-running staffing shortage have felt the pinch the hardest.

• Controllers in busy centers and towers have been logging 10-hour days, six days a week.
• Morale, already low due to understaffing, aging buildings, and equipment needing updates, slid further.
• Younger recruits see a demanding career with high stakes and limited margin for error; veterans weigh health and family time against more overtime.

Those conditions make recruiting and retention harder exactly when the agency needs both.

When a profession depends on alertness and judgment under pressure, fatigue is not just a morale problem; it is a safety risk that managers mitigate by slowing operations and reducing complexity.

Agency response and hiring pledge

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has acknowledged the crisis plainly and promised a faster response than past efforts. He pledged to “supercharge” hiring and modernize systems, with a plan to bring on 9,000 new controllers by 2028.

• This is one of the most ambitious hiring goals in years.
• However, every new hire must pass screening, complete academy coursework, and then certify on each position at their facility.
• Delays at the academy during the 2025 shutdown shift best-case certification timelines later.

Operational impacts on airlines and travelers

Airlines have little choice but to plan for a leaner air traffic control environment in 2026 and beyond.

• With fewer certified controllers at high-demand facilities, carriers may face flow restrictions that reduce takeoffs and landings during peak periods.
• These safety-driven measures produce:
  • Longer ground holds
  • Slower departure sequences
  • More diversions during storms or equipment issues

Even after funding resumes, recovery will follow the longer timeline of training and certification rather than a political calendar.

The sequencing challenge and modernization

Officials point to modernization as part of the solution: upgraded systems can reduce controller workload per flight and help handle surges.

• Modernization helps but does not replace certified people.
• The key challenge is sequencing: the FAA must
  1. Restart academy classes at pace,
  2. Keep trainees moving through on-the-job certification, and
  3. Retain veteran controllers.

Any stumble in that sequence can bring staffing shortfalls back into view.

Staffing calculus remains the same

The political narrative around the shutdown may tempt some to declare a quick fix once agencies reopen. Yet the structural staffing shortage is not a switch.

• The same numbers that mattered before October 1, 2025 still matter:
  • How many people are certified,
  • How many are in the pipeline,
  • How many are approaching retirement.
• The shutdown amplified losses at the top of the experience ladder and paused growth at the entry level — a one-two hit that compounds over time.

What travelers and operators should expect

For travelers:
– Longer wait times
– Schedule changes
– Residual cancellations on bad-weather days

For airlines and cargo operators:
– Planning windows extend into seasons rather than weeks
– Recovery will be uneven by facility, depending on local retention and training capacity

Even a successful hiring surge that reaches 9,000 by 2028 will flow into operations gradually as classes graduate and trainees earn certifications.

Agreement on priorities

Labor groups and managers broadly agree on what’s needed:

• Workforce stability
• Predictable funding for training
• A steady cadence of classes at the academy

That is why the pause during the 2025 shutdown drew such deep concern: it interrupted the one pathway that cannot afford stops and starts.

• Each seat in a tower or center must be filled by someone fully certified for that position at that facility.
• The path to certification runs through Oklahoma City and months of on-the-job training.

FAA guidance and resources

The FAA has said it will resume academy operations as soon as funding resumes and has encouraged prospective applicants to track hiring windows and qualification criteria.

For official information about controller careers and hiring, consult the Federal Aviation Administration controller hiring overview:
https://www.faa.gov/jobs/career_fields/aviation_careers/atc

Even strong applicant interest cannot change the multi-year timeline built into the job. That lag explains why the current gap will persist long after the shutdown’s paperwork ends.

Bottom line

In the months ahead, airline schedules will reflect what facilities can handle safely. When staffing is thin, the system slows down by design so controllers can manage traffic within safe limits.

• This may frustrate travelers who see clear skies but are delayed.
• The post-shutdown period will test how well the system matches demand to the actual availability of certified experts.
• It will also test how quickly the hiring plan can move from targets to reality without losing more experience to retirement.

If there is a lesson from the past year, it is that the nation’s airspace depends on a workforce that cannot be surged. The staffing shortage that predated the 2025 shutdown was years in the making; a few months of renewed funding won’t undo the damage.

The plan to hire 9,000 by 2028 offers a path out — provided the academy runs steadily, on-the-job training stays on track, and working conditions improve enough to hold current staff. Until then, day-to-day air traffic control will remain cautious, sometimes slower, and focused on safety above all else as the industry waits for the numbers to turn.