How the 2025 shutdown worsens the air traffic controller shortage

(UNITED STATES) The ongoing government shutdown is worsening the air traffic controller shortage and causing nationwide flight delays, as key facilities continue to run with fewer staff than the Federal Aviation Administration recommends. As of October 11, 2025, the FAA and the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) warn that short staffing at towers and radar centers is forcing the system to slow down to stay safe. That slowdown is producing longer wait times, tighter restrictions on the number of flights in the air, and, in some cases, temporary service suspensions at smaller facilities.

Major hubs — including Chicago, Nashville, Denver, and Los Angeles — have reported persistent slowdowns. In California, the control tower at Hollywood Burbank Airport was temporarily closed during a staffing gap, highlighting how quickly a fragile system can struggle when even a handful of controllers are out.

Staffing levels and training constraints

Before the shutdown began, the system was already stretched. By early 2025, the FAA reported that about 91% of facilities were staffed below the agency’s modeled targets. Nearly a third of those facilities fell at least 10% under model standards by the end of fiscal year 2024.

This staffing gap limits how many aircraft can safely depart, land, and transit through busy airspace — especially during peak hours and bad weather. Training new controllers takes years. The curriculum is strict, performance-based, and stressful by design, and roughly a third of trainees do not complete it. These long-known figures left little cushion for a prolonged budget fight or a funding lapse.

• Training pathway: academy → on-the-job training → certification
• Typical timeline: months to years once a trainee reaches a complex tower or radar center
• Attrition: ~33% washout rate during training

Effects of the shutdown on controllers

Under shutdown rules, air traffic controllers are classified as essential workers and must keep working. However, they do so without pay until Congress restores funding and back pay is released.

• Financial impacts reported by controllers:
  • Mounting financial stress
  • Taking on temporary jobs after shifts
  • Longer commutes to reduce living costs
• Personnel impacts observed by NATCA:
  • Increased sick calls
  • More requests for time off that would otherwise have been declined

When a single sector at a high-volume facility loses one or two certified controllers, managers must reduce the number of aircraft allowed through that slice of airspace to preserve safety margins. Those decisions create ripple effects that can reach hundreds of miles.

“Small staffing gaps can have a big effect” — a core concern from NATCA leadership about how fragile operations become when the system runs close to the edge.

How the FAA manages low staffing: metering and operational changes

The FAA’s standard response to lower staffing is to meter traffic — reducing the rate of takeoffs and landings — so controllers can manage aircraft safely in the sky and on the ground. That response causes:

• Flight delays and, sometimes, cancellations
• Tighter arrival spacing and fewer simultaneous departures
• Holding departures on the ground to avoid clustering in the air

Airlines have little room to recover when multiple facilities slow down simultaneously. On heavy travel days, a brief delay at a big hub can grow into rolling disruptions that push crew members past duty-time limits, producing:

1. More cancellations
2. Gate holds
3. Aircraft out of position for subsequent flights

The net result: passengers face longer waits in terminals or unexpected overnight stays.

Strain on safety and schedules

Safety officials stress that slowing the system is the correct choice when staffing is short. The system is designed to put safety first, even if that means inconvenience.

• Operational adjustments used to preserve safety:
  • Spreading out arrivals
  • Adjusting runway configurations
  • Holding departures on the ground
  • Reassigning controllers to cover extra sectors

Fatigue is an added risk when controllers cover extra sectors or work longer stretches without breaks, reinforcing the need to keep traffic counts lower.

The shutdown also compounds pre-existing problems:

• High washout rates in training classes
• Multi-year certification timelines
• Pauses to overtime and travel for training during funding lapses, which later result in fewer certified controllers on the schedule

Near-term travel impacts and holiday pressure

The impact on travelers grows with each day the shutdown continues. Busy fall weekends have already seen longer queues, and airlines are bracing for heavy demand around Thanksgiving.

• Holiday peaks require more controllers, not fewer.
• If staffing remains thin, the FAA will likely continue assigning flow restrictions, resulting in:
  • Slower turnaround times
  • Fewer available seats on certain routes
  • Potential fare increases
  • Families scrambling for alternatives

What unions and officials say

NATCA’s president, Nick Daniels, emphasizes that the underlying air traffic controller shortage is not new, but the shutdown is exposing the system’s weak points. He warns that the combination of lower-than-modeled staffing and unpaid work is a dangerous mix.

The administration’s stance, voiced by Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, has suggested that an uptick in sick calls is driving some disruptions. Secretary Duffy has also made claims about controller pay that, according to FAA data cited by union leaders, do not align with agency records.

• NATCA’s position:
  • Sick calls are a symptom, not the root cause
  • The crisis stems from structural staffing shortfalls across facilities
• FAA/Administration position:
  • Points to short-term personnel availability (sick calls) as a driver
  • Supervisors continue to reassign staff and adjust schedules to maintain safety

Despite public tensions, both the FAA and NATCA say they are cooperating to reduce disruption where possible. Measures include:

• Balancing staffing between adjacent facilities
• Targeted overtime (when available)
• Scheduling strategies that protect rest periods

However, none of these measures substitute for more fully trained controllers. The path forward requires:

• Funding stability
• Steady hiring
• Consistent training throughput
• Retention policies that keep certified controllers on position

Advice for travelers and workers

Airlines and airports are urging passengers to plan for longer travel days while the government shutdown continues.

Traveler tips:

• Consider earlier departures for fixed events (weddings, funerals, school returns)
• Prefer early-morning flights when possible (they tend to face fewer cascade effects)
• Use airline apps and sign up for alerts for gate holds and ground delays
• Carry-on baggage and nonstop routes reduce the risk of missed connections

Airport operational tips:

• Airport managers are updating operations plans to manage longer lines and reduce crowding
• More agents at check-in and smoother passenger flow can help airlines recover time when the FAA lifts a flow restriction
• Watch for changes to regional flights — they are often the first to be cut when traffic counts drop

Impacts on trainees:

• Training moves in stages; lost time (delayed check rides, canceled travel to academy) can push a trainee’s on-the-job schedule weeks later
• When multiplied across dozens of trainees, those delays translate into fewer certified controllers next year

Industry analysis and outlook

The broader aviation community is tracking developments closely. Airlines schedule months in advance and airports plan around expected traffic levels. Extended staffing constraints force sudden changes that ripple through:

• Maintenance
• Catering
• Crew assignments

Unions for pilots and flight attendants have raised fatigue concerns as crews manage off-schedule operations.

Passengers seeking official system status can consult FAA public resources, including the agency’s page on air traffic operations and programs at the Federal Aviation Administration: https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic.

Analysis by VisaVerge.com notes that the current pattern — longstanding staffing shortfalls compounded by unpaid essential work — points to continued day-to-day bottlenecks until funding is restored and training pipelines stabilize. Their review emphasizes that the problem is not just hiring but also the time and mentorship required to turn recruits into certified controllers capable of managing complex airspace independently.

What would help and the likely scenarios

Short-term recovery depends on how quickly funding returns:

• If funding is restored soon:
  • Back pay flows
  • Overtime resumes
  • Training travel restarts
  • Still: rebuilding normal staffing at heavily stressed facilities will take time
• If the shutdown continues:
  • Managers will likely keep metering traffic, especially during weather or holiday peaks
  • Expect more flight delays and cancellations nationwide

Core facts to keep in mind:

• The U.S. entered 2025 with too few controllers in many places
• Training more controllers is slow and difficult
• A funding lapse forces essential workers to stay on the job without pay, increasing sick calls and deepening the staffing crunch

Those conditions make the system fragile: a single tower closure, like the temporary shutdown at Hollywood Burbank Airport, can prompt diversions and holds that reach well beyond one city. As the calendar moves closer to late-fall travel, pressure on the system will grow unless staffing stabilizes and full funding returns.