Most Australians Still Back Migration — Are Cost Pressures Shifting Views?

(AUSTRALIA) Australians have long seen migration as a net gain, but 2025 brings a cooler mood shaped by rent spikes, tight housing supply, and election‑season debate. New polling shows more people think the overall intake is too high, yet support stays firm for skilled migrants and remains steady for international students. At the same time, government settings for 2024–25 tilt toward employer sponsorship, raise pay floors, and tighten student integrity rules.

This update sets out what changed, why it matters, and how to plan your next steps if you’re considering Australia in 2025.

What changed in 2024–25

Policy settings shifted toward quality over quantity and closer control of short‑term flows. Below are the main moves and the practical meaning of each.

• Permanent Migration Program 2024–25: set at 185,000 places, with about 71–72% for the skill stream.
• Category mix: Employer Sponsored up to 44,000; Skilled Independent down to 16,900. This shifts opportunities toward employer-backed jobs and narrows the stand‑alone skilled points route.
• Student visas: Direction 111 (from 2024) prioritises providers with stronger records and raises integrity checks. The visa charge, lifted to A$1,600 in 2024, is reported to rise to A$2,000 from July 2025. Expect closer review of funds, English, and study plans.
• Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold (TSMIT): lifted to A$76,515 from July 2025, with a “highly skilled” benchmark of A$141,210. Higher floors mean sponsored roles must be better paid and clearly skilled.
• Net migration: after a COVID rebound peaking in 2022–23, net arrivals fell by roughly 100,000 in the latest year, heading back toward pre‑pandemic levels.

Behind these moves is a common aim: keep Australia open to talent and study, but in a more targeted, rules‑driven way. Pay floors rise, student screening tightens, and the permanent intake leans more on jobs with clear employer demand.

Public opinion in 2025: cooler on totals, steady on students

• 53% of Australians say the total number of migrants is “too high,” up five points in a year and equal to the 2018 peak.
• About 45% say the level is about right or too low.
• Views on international students are warmer: 56% say enrolments are about right or too low, while 42% say they are too high.

Experiments on a nationally representative sample show how fast opinion can shift: brief messages tying migration to housing affordability reduce support for keeping or increasing intake. By contrast, factual baselines and nuanced messages about economic benefits can lift acceptance, especially for targeted skill streams.

Put simply: how the story is told matters.

Why attitudes shifted: rent, housing supply, and costs

The past year brought sharp rent growth and a visible housing shortage. Even though net migration has dropped from the post‑COVID peak, many voters link population growth with difficulty finding an affordable home.

Campaign talk in 2025 amplified that link, which helps explain why people back tighter controls but still want skilled workers in hard‑to‑fill roles and remain open to students who pay fees and spend locally.

Effective dates and key thresholds

Several changes take effect in mid‑2025, with others already in place from 2024:

These dates and numbers affect decisions from salary offers on sponsored roles to how students budget for fees.

Who is affected

• People seeking employer sponsorship: higher pay floors mean roles must be well paid and clearly skilled. Strong job offers now carry more weight than points alone.
• Skilled applicants relying on points: reduced Skilled Independent places make this path tighter; state nomination and regional routes are more competitive.
• International students: tighter integrity settings mean closer checks on course choice, provider risk, funds, and English; upfront costs are higher.
• Employers: sponsorship remains viable but requires careful salary benchmarking and genuine‑position evidence.

Required actions if you plan to apply in 2025

Follow these steps to avoid delays and mismatches:

1. Check the latest planning levels and category caps on the Department of Home Affairs site, including employer‑sponsored, state/territory nominated, regional, and Skilled Independent allocations.
2. Confirm the current TSMIT and any higher benchmark applying from July 2025 before lodging a nomination or visa. Ensure the offered salary meets or exceeds the floor.
3. If you’re a student, review provider risk settings under Direction 111, the current visa charge, financial capacity rules, and English standards. Budget for the higher fee from July 2025.
4. Watch state and territory nomination windows between July and October—quota pauses and releases can shift timing.
5. Keep your evidence tight: contracts, payslips, position descriptions, funds, and study plans. Higher scrutiny means weak files are more likely to face delays or refusal.

Practical implications: what this means for you

• For skilled migrants with offers, 2025 can still be a good window. Employer‑sponsored places are up, and higher salary floors help demonstrate genuine skill. Points‑only pathways are tighter—prepare backups like state nomination or regional programs.
• For international students, the message is not “don’t come,” but “come prepared.” Expect more checks on course reasons, funds, and post‑study plans. Costs are higher up front, but student sentiment is more balanced than sentiment on overall migration.
• Employers should budget for higher wages and act early to secure talent. Clear, well‑documented roles will move faster than vague descriptions.

How public opinion shapes policy in 2025

Polling (Lowy Institute; ANU/Devpolicy) shows a majority saying numbers are too high, and that short messages about housing pressures can move views. Support for skilled migrants and international students remains relatively strong. This mix of caution and selectivity helps explain the 2024–25 settings: fewer points‑based places, higher salary floors, and tougher student screening—but not a full closure of pathways.

Three short examples

• A software engineer in Sydney earning A$125,000 clears the TSMIT A$76,515 floor; the highly skilled benchmark is A$141,210. Employer sponsorship is likely the best route.
• A mechanical fitter in Perth offered A$80,000 is just above the floor; the employer must show the job is genuine and matches market rates—if market rates are higher, a pay lift may be needed.
• A master’s student starting August 2025 should budget for the A$2,000 visa charge, confirm provider risk status under Direction 111, and prepare strong proof of funds and English.

Housing debate: what the experiments suggest

Survey experiments in 2025 show:

• Messages linking migration to housing costs decrease support for higher intake.
• Factual, balanced messages about skills, students, and long‑term gains increase acceptance—especially for targeted pathways.

Lesson: expect policy to stay tight while housing remains difficult, but there’s room for well‑paid, well‑evidenced cases.

Official resource

For the latest planning levels, stream shares, and category caps, see the Department of Home Affairs Migration Program information here: https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au

Step‑by‑step checklist for 2025 applicants

1. Define your route
   • Employer sponsorship if you hold a firm offer at or above the pay floors.
   • Points‑based options if you have strong age, English, Australian study, and work records.
   • Student route if your main goal is study that builds into skilled work.
2. Test eligibility and pay
   • Check occupation, minimum pay, market rate, English, and qualifications.
3. Prepare evidence
   • Job: contract, position description, skills match, market pay proof.
   • Student: offer letter, funds, English results, genuine study plan.
4. Time your lodgement
   • Watch mid‑year changes like the TSMIT rise and the student visa charge.
5. Lodge and monitor
   • Use clear, consistent information across nomination and visa steps.
   • Respond promptly to any requests for more information.

For employers: making sponsorship work

• Plan around the new pay floors. Start with market pay evidence, not only the threshold.
• Show how the role meets skill level and keep records ready.
• For roles just above the floor, be prepared to explain why the salary is fair for the occupation and location.
• Check timing—July changes can affect nominations filed around that date.
• Clear role descriptions, sensible rosters, and standard hours reduce queries.

For international students: planning a stronger file

• Pick providers with solid records and align your course with your background.
• Map a clear study‑to‑work path and budget for the higher visa charge.
• Prepare proof of funds covering tuition and living costs (rent, transport).
• Expect closer questions about course hopping and genuineness.
• Keep your English tests current and choose tests accepted by Home Affairs.

For families and partners

Family pathways are not the main focus of these changes, but housing, cost pressures, and slower state nomination cycles can affect timing. Build extra time into plans if you depend on state processes or a partner’s sponsored role.

Politics and 2025 campaign context

Immigration is front and centre in 2025 campaigning because of housing pain. Net migration is falling toward normal, but public mood responds to daily stories about rents and supply. Expect continued debate about caps, targets, and student numbers, with an emphasis on skills and integrity.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, Canberra is likely to keep tuning salary thresholds and student rules rather than slash the permanent intake outright.

A note on numbers and sources

Figures here come from 2025 polling and research by the Lowy Institute and ANU/Devpolicy, and from government program settings for 2024–25. Headline figures:

• 53% say total migrant numbers are too high.
• 56% say international student enrolments are about right or too low; 42% say too high.
• Permanent program: 185,000 places in 2024–25, with more employer sponsorship and fewer points‑only places.
• TSMIT A$76,515 from July 2025; highly skilled benchmark A$141,210.
• Student visa charge reported to rise to A$2,000 from July 2025 (after A$1,600 in 2024).

Common questions in 2025

• Does lower net migration mean faster visas?
  Not automatically—processing still depends on category, provider risk, salary, and evidence quality.

• Are international students less welcome?
  No. Public sentiment is more balanced for students, and policy aims at stronger integrity, not a shut door.

• Is points‑only migration still possible?
  Yes, but places are tighter—expect more competition and longer waits.

• Should employers delay hiring until housing eases?
  No. If the role is hard to fill, act now but set pay at or above market and support new staff with settling‑in help.

Outlook for late 2025

Policy is likely to continue leaning on employer sponsorship and higher skill, lift thresholds as wages grow, and keep student integrity rules tight. If housing supply improves and rents ease, public support for a higher intake could rebound. Until people’s rent bills ease, the mood will likely remain cautious.

Key takeaways

• Support for overall migration has cooled, but support for skilled migrants and international students remains more positive.
• 2024–25 policy tilts toward employer sponsorship, higher salary floors, and tighter student integrity.
• From July 2025, expect TSMIT at A$76,515 and a student visa charge of A$2,000.
• Net migration is trending down from the post‑COVID peak, but politics remain loud due to housing pain.