Iran Deporting Over 120,000 Afghans as Israel-Iran Conflict Fuels Crackdown

(IRAN) — Iranian authorities deported more than 120,000 Afghans in the first three months of 2026, driving nearly four-fifths of all returns to Afghanistan in that period and extending a mass expulsion campaign that gathered pace last year.

The removals followed Iran’s March 2025 policy requiring all undocumented Afghans to leave the country. Expulsions then intensified after the June 2025 Iran-Israel conflict.

United Nations data shows the people being sent back are overwhelmingly undocumented migrants. It also shows that most are not leaving by choice.

The first-quarter total points to a continued high rate of returns after a year in which Iran expelled over 1.6 million Afghans between January and October 2025. More than 900,000 of those deportations took place between July and October alone.

That acceleration altered the scale of movement into Afghanistan and deepened pressure on border crossings and communities receiving returnees. By early 2026, the flow had become the dominant source of returns to Afghanistan.

Nearly all of those coming back from Iran lack papers. UN figures put the share of returnees from Iran without proper documentation at 99%.

Around 70% are forcibly returned rather than departing voluntarily. The figures point to deportation, not self-organized return, as the main driver of the movement.

The makeup of those crossing back has also changed. Earlier months were dominated by single young men, but more recent deportations have increasingly included families.

That shift appeared in 2025 data showing about 60% of returnees were women and children. It marks a change from a profile centered more heavily on men traveling alone.

For Afghanistan, the returns add to a much broader influx that has built over several years. Approximately 5 million Afghans have returned to the country since 2023.

UN officials have described that cumulative influx as a “massive demographic shock.” The phrase captures the pressure created when large numbers of people arrive in a country already facing deep hardship.

The humanitarian strain is visible at the border. Between January 1 and January 24, 2026, approximately 13,500 returnees crossed the Islamala border.

Among them, about 6% were women and roughly 10% were children under 18. Even that short period showed that the movement included vulnerable groups, not only adult men.

Those arriving back in Afghanistan face harsh winter conditions, hunger, and severe hardship. At the same time, the World Food Programme estimates that 17 million people in Afghanistan are affected by aid cuts.

That combination leaves returnees entering an environment with few buffers. Large-scale deportations from Iran are landing in a country where humanitarian needs remain severe.

Iran’s March 2025 order requiring undocumented Afghans to leave set the policy framework for the expulsions. After the June 2025 Iran-Israel conflict, the pace rose further.

The timing matters because it helps explain why 2025 totals climbed so sharply in the second half of the year. More than 900,000 Afghans were deported between July and October, far above the rate implied by the January-to-October total alone.

By the start of 2026, that momentum had not eased. More than 120,000 deportations in three months showed the expulsions were continuing at scale.

Because those removals accounted for nearly four-fifths of all returns to Afghanistan during the period, Iran remained the main source of cross-border movement back into the country. That left Afghanistan absorbing returns shaped largely by decisions made across its western border.

Documentation status is central to the pattern. With 99% of returnees from Iran lacking proper documentation, the deportations are centered on undocumented migrants rather than Afghans holding recognized legal status.

The same data also shows how limited voluntary departure has become in this flow. If approximately 70% are forcibly returned, most are being sent back through enforcement rather than planning their own return.

That enforcement-led pattern can change who returns and when they arrive. It can also compress movement into shorter periods, producing surges at crossing points such as Islamala.

The border numbers from January offer one snapshot of that pressure. Approximately 13,500 people crossed there in the first 24 days of 2026.

Within that group, women made up about 6% and children under 18 made up roughly 10%. Those shares show the return population includes people with needs different from those of single adult men.

Recent deportations increasingly involving families fit a broader shift already visible in last year’s data. About 60% of 2025 returnees were women and children.

That change matters in Afghanistan, where families returning together need shelter, food and support in places already under strain. The burden rises when returns come during winter and amid cuts to aid.

The scale of the broader return movement since 2023 adds another layer. Approximately 5 million Afghans have returned in that period, a figure that places the 2026 deportations within a much larger wave.

UN officials’ description of a “massive demographic shock” reflects that longer arc. The issue is not only the pace of current deportations from Iran but also the cumulative effect of returns over time.

Aid constraints make that harder to absorb. The World Food Programme’s estimate that 17 million people in Afghanistan are affected by aid cuts points to the conditions awaiting many of those sent back.

Harsh winter conditions and hunger compound the challenge. Returnees arriving with little or no preparation face severe hardship on top of the dislocation of deportation.

For Iran, the deportation campaign has moved from policy declaration to sustained enforcement. The March 2025 order requiring undocumented Afghans to leave was followed by a marked rise in expulsions, then a sharper increase after the June 2025 Iran-Israel conflict.

For Afghanistan, the practical effect is visible in the numbers. Over 120,000 Afghans were deported from Iran in the first quarter of 2026, and nearly four-fifths of all returns to Afghanistan during that period came from those removals.

The 2025 figures show the same trajectory on a larger scale. Iran expelled over 1.6 million Afghans between January and October, including more than 900,000 between July and October.

Those totals, taken together with the first-quarter 2026 number, show continuity rather than a short-lived spike. The campaign that accelerated in 2025 continued into the new year.

The profile of those affected also shows why the fallout reaches beyond border statistics. Earlier waves centered on single young men, but later deportations increasingly included families, and about 60% of 2025 returnees were women and children.

That means the story of Afghans deported from Iran is also a story about households crossing back into a country facing hunger and weakened aid support. It is not limited to labor migrants moving alone.

At the same time, the documentation figures leave little doubt about who is being targeted. UN data shows 99% of returnees from Iran lacked proper documentation.

The forced-return figure points in the same direction. Approximately 70% were sent back involuntarily.

Together, those numbers show a large enforcement campaign focused on undocumented migrants and carried out at a pace that has reshaped return patterns into Afghanistan. In the opening months of 2026, Iran remained at the center of that movement.

The humanitarian effect now stretches from the Islamala border to communities across Afghanistan already coping with deep need. With approximately 5 million Afghans returned since 2023 and 17 million people affected by aid cuts, each new convoy of deportees adds to what UN officials have called a “massive demographic shock.”