Vanishing Immigration: The Bigger Economic Supply Shock Than Tariffs

Key Takeaways

• On June 5, 2025, a Presidential Action restricts entry of certain foreign nationals at all U.S. borders.
• Diversity Visa program cut to about 52,000 visas for 2025; Dreamers and TPS holders face protections loss.
• Experts warn vanishing immigration causes a bigger economic supply shock than tariffs or trade wars.

The United States 🇺🇸 is facing a major shift in its immigration policy, with new restrictions and proposals that could change the country’s economy and society for years to come. On June 5, 2025, the White House issued a Presidential Action that restricts the entry of certain foreign nationals. This move, along with other recent changes, is part of a broader trend of vanishing immigration—a decline in the number of people coming to live, work, and study in the United States 🇺🇸. Many experts now warn that this drop in immigration is a bigger supply shock to the economy than tariffs or trade wars.

Let’s break down what’s happening, why it matters, and how these changes could affect different groups across the country.

What Happened: New Presidential Action and Policy Changes

Who: The White House, led by the President, issued a proclamation on June 5, 2025.

What: The proclamation restricts the entry of foreign nationals who are considered threats to national security or public safety.

When: The action took effect immediately on June 5, 2025.

Where: The restrictions apply at all U.S. borders and ports of entry.

Why: The administration says the goal is to protect the United States 🇺🇸 from terrorism and other threats.

How: Federal agencies identify individuals or groups that may pose a risk. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and other agencies then enforce the restrictions at airports, land borders, and seaports. There are limited exceptions, but these are reviewed case by case.

Immediate Impact: This action means that some people trying to enter the United States 🇺🇸—for business, tourism, or to join family—may face extra checks or be denied entry. The government has not released a list of affected countries or exact numbers, but the effects are already being felt in many communities.

Supporting Details: Other Major Changes in U.S. Immigration

Diversity Visa Program Cutbacks

The Diversity Visa (DV) Program is a lottery that gives people from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States 🇺🇸 a chance to apply for a green card. For 2025, the annual limit for DV-2025 has been reduced to about 52,000 visas. No single country can receive more than 7% of the total.

• Why this matters: Fewer visas mean fewer people from underrepresented countries can move to the United States 🇺🇸. This tightens legal immigration pathways and reduces diversity.

Threats to Dreamers and TPS Holders

• Dreamers: These are people who were brought to the United States 🇺🇸 as children and have been protected from deportation under the DACA program. Over 500,000 Dreamers could lose their protections if new proposals become law.
• Temporary Protected Status (TPS) Holders: Nearly 700,000 immigrants from countries facing war or disaster have TPS, which lets them live and work in the United States 🇺🇸. If TPS is repealed, they could lose their jobs and face deportation.

Expansion of E-Verify

E-Verify is a system that lets employers check if someone is allowed to work in the United States 🇺🇸. There are proposals to make E-Verify mandatory for all employers nationwide. While this could help enforce immigration laws, there are concerns about mistakes in the system and possible discrimination.

Why Vanishing Immigration Is a Big Deal

Many people focus on tariffs or trade wars when thinking about shocks to the economy. But some analysts say that vanishing immigration is an even bigger supply shock. Here’s why:

• Labor Force: Immigrants make up a large part of the workforce, especially in industries like farming, construction, and healthcare. Fewer immigrants mean fewer workers, which can lead to labor shortages.
• Productivity: Immigrants often fill jobs that are hard to staff, help start new businesses, and bring new ideas. Without them, productivity and economic growth can slow down.
• Aging Population: The United States 🇺🇸 has an aging population. Immigrants help balance this by bringing in younger workers and families.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the drop in immigration could have a bigger impact on the economy than tariffs, because it directly affects the number of people who can work, spend money, and contribute to society.

Who Is Affected?

Immigrants and Their Families

• Dreamers and TPS Holders: Face uncertainty, possible loss of legal status, and risk of deportation.
• Diversity Visa Applicants: Have fewer chances to win a green card.
• Families: May be separated if members are denied entry or lose their status.

Employers and the Economy

• Businesses: Many rely on immigrant workers. Labor shortages can lead to higher costs, lower productivity, and even business closures.
• Consumers: With fewer workers, prices for goods and services could rise.

Communities

• Schools and Hospitals: May see changes in enrollment and staffing.
• Local Economies: Immigrants often help keep small towns and cities vibrant.

Step-by-Step: How the New Entry Restrictions Work

1. Identification: Federal agencies look for individuals or groups who might be a threat.
2. Proclamation: The President issues an official order restricting entry.
3. Enforcement: CBP and other agencies check travelers at the border and decide who can enter.
4. Exceptions: Some people may get exceptions, but these are rare and reviewed carefully.

For more details on official proclamations, you can visit the White House Presidential Actions page.

How the Diversity Visa Process Works (and What’s Changed)

1. Registration: People from eligible countries apply during the DV lottery period.
2. Selection: Winners are picked at random.
3. Application: Winners fill out more forms and provide documents.
4. Interview: Applicants go to a U.S. embassy or consulate for an interview.
5. Decision: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) reviews everything and makes a final decision.

You can find the latest information and the current Visa Bulletin on the official State Department website.

What Are the Arguments For and Against These Changes?

Government Perspective

• Security: The administration says these steps are needed to protect the country from terrorism and crime.
• Control: Some lawmakers want to tighten border security and reduce the number of people coming in.

Business and Labor Groups

• Labor Shortages: Many employers say they can’t find enough workers without immigrants.
• Economic Growth: Business leaders warn that the economy could slow down if immigration keeps dropping.

Civil Rights and Advocacy Groups

• Human Rights: Groups worry about family separations, loss of legal status, and harm to vulnerable people.
• Discrimination: There are concerns that systems like E-Verify could lead to mistakes and unfair treatment.

Historical Context: How Did We Get Here?

Immigration to the United States 🇺🇸 has been falling in recent years. This is due to:

• Policy Changes: More restrictions and fewer legal pathways.
• Economic Factors: Global events like the pandemic have slowed movement.
• Political Shifts: The current administration has focused on border security and reducing immigration, reversing earlier trends.

Programs like DACA (for Dreamers) and TPS were created to help people in need, but are now under threat. The Diversity Visa program, designed to bring in people from many backgrounds, has faced repeated cuts.

What Could Happen Next?

• Congressional Action: Lawmakers are still debating immigration reform. Some want more restrictions, while others want to protect Dreamers and other groups.
• More Executive Orders: The President could issue more proclamations or change policies as new issues arise.
• Economic Effects: If immigration keeps dropping, experts predict more labor shortages and slower economic growth.
• Legal Challenges: Advocacy groups are likely to challenge new restrictions in court, which could delay or change how they are enforced.

Practical Guidance for Affected Individuals

If you or your family are affected by these changes, here are some steps you can take:

• Stay Informed: Check official sources like USCIS Newsroom for updates.
• Know Your Rights: If you are a Dreamer or TPS holder, consult with a trusted immigration attorney or advocacy group.
• Prepare Documents: Keep your immigration documents up to date and organized.
• Employers: Make sure you understand how E-Verify works and what your responsibilities are.

Key Takeaways

• Vanishing immigration is a major issue for the United States 🇺🇸, with big effects on the economy, families, and communities.
• The June 5, 2025 Presidential Action restricts entry for certain foreign nationals, focusing on national security.
• The Diversity Visa program has been cut back, and protections for Dreamers and TPS holders are at risk.
• Many experts believe that the drop in immigration is a bigger supply shock than tariffs, affecting labor markets and economic growth.
• Different groups—government, business, labor, and civil society—have strong but differing opinions on these changes.
• The future of U.S. immigration policy remains uncertain, with more changes possible in the months ahead.

Where to Find More Information

• White House Proclamations: whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions
• USCIS News Releases: uscis.gov/newsroom
• State Department Visa Bulletin: travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html
• Civil Rights Project 2025 Analysis: civilrights.org

In summary, the United States 🇺🇸 is at a turning point in its immigration policy. The trend of vanishing immigration, driven by new restrictions and policy proposals, is creating a supply shock that could reshape the economy and society. As reported by VisaVerge.com, the effects of these changes are likely to be felt for years to come, making it more important than ever for individuals, families, and employers to stay informed and prepared.

Learn Today

Presidential Action → An official order by the U.S. President to enact immediate immigration entry restrictions and policies.
Diversity Visa Program → A lottery enabling immigration from countries with low U.S. immigration rates, promoting diversity.
Dreamers → Immigrants brought as children and protected under DACA from deportation and removal.
Temporary Protected Status (TPS) → Permission for immigrants from unsafe countries to live and work temporarily in the U.S.
E-Verify → An online system employers use to confirm employees’ legal work eligibility in the United States.

This Article in a Nutshell

New U.S. immigration restrictions disrupt lives and labor markets. Cutting Diversity Visas and threatening Dreamers, the June 2025 Presidential Action tightens legal entry, causing economic consequences surpassing tariff impacts. This shift signals complex challenges for businesses, families, and communities reliant on immigrant contributions nationwide.
— By VisaVerge.com