Trump 2.0 Deports Four in Five Immigrants with No Criminal Record, Migration Policy Institute’s Marc Rosenblum Finds

A Migration Policy Institute analysis released Thursday, October 22, 2026, found that about 980,000 deportations occurred during the first 18 months of Trump 2.0. Four in five people deported from January 20, 2025, to July 31, 2026, had no criminal record, the report found.

Marc Rosenblum, a former head of the Department of Homeland Security's Office of Homeland Security Statistics, authored the study. It draws on public records, information obtained from DHS under the Freedom of Information Act and data from the Deportation Data Project at the University of California.

The findings cover actions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection. About 190,000 people, or 20 percent of those deported, had criminal convictions. The rest did not.

The figures count people deported through different processes, including border turnbacks and departures arranged outside formal removal proceedings. The breakdown offers a view into enforcement at a time when DHS has reduced publication of detailed immigration statistics.

Most formal removals involved people without criminal convictions

The share without convictions remained high among people with longer U.S. residence. Among those who had lived in the country for at least two years, 71 percent of deportees had no criminal conviction. For those present a decade or longer, the share was 61 percent.

Formal removals showed a different but still limited share of convictions: 31 percent. That was below the 44 percent average recorded between fiscal years 2009 and 2021. The most common convictions in the current analysis involved illegal entry or reentry and traffic violations, including driving under the influence.

“These data do not show that the administration is deporting the worst of the worst,” Rosenblum said. He said that even among people with convictions, records more often involved immigration or traffic infractions than violent or other serious crimes.

The deportation tally includes returns as well as formal removals

The report classified about 580,000 cases, or 59 percent, as removals. Enforcement returns accounted for 300,000, or 30 percent, while administrative returns made up 110,000, or 11 percent.

About 170,000 cases involved ICE grants of voluntary departure or return. Those arrangements let migrants leave without formal deportation proceedings, including people who chose to leave rather than continue court cases or contest a return at the border.

Border encounters still account for most deportations

Border encounters accounted for 69 percent of deportations. Roughly 340,000 people were intercepted at the border and turned back by CBP; another 340,000 were arrested there and later deported by ICE. Around 300,000 were first arrested inside the United States.

Interior enforcement nevertheless grew. Arrest-related deportations from inside the country rose from about 8,000 per month in early 2025 to about 19,000 per month by mid-2026, nearly 40 percent of the national total.

The interior share climbed from 28 percent between January 20 and December 31, 2025, to 34 percent in the first six months of 2026 and 39 percent in July. Among ICE deportations, excluding people turned away at the border, 61 percent involved people who had spent at least two years in the country.

“Despite everything happening inside the country, most deportations are still the result of encounters at the border,” Rosenblum said.

The administration remains short of its one-million-a-year target

The administration has not reached its stated goal of deporting one million people annually, a promise made during the 2024 presidential campaign. It completed about 660,000 deportations in fiscal year 2026, which ended September 30, compared with roughly 620,000 in the first year of Trump's second term.

The fiscal year 2026 figure was 26 percent above the 2021–2024 average. It remained well below the 1.86 million deportations recorded in fiscal year 2000, when border enforcement expanded after a 1996 immigration law. The analysis also found annual deportation levels above those under Joe Biden and Trump's first term, but below levels routinely recorded in the early 2000s.

Since Trump returned to office, official monthly deportation statistics have stopped being published, apart from statements by individual senior officials.

Departure estimates vary widely, and the study's estimate is uncertain

The administration has said more than 3 million undocumented immigrants left the country since January 2025, including an estimated 2.2 million voluntary departures. DHS also said nearly 1.1 million people had been deported and more than 1.1 million arrested as of September 7; those figures cover a period longer than the MPI analysis.

Rosenblum estimated that between 310,000 and 1.5 million immigrants who had spent at least a year in the United States left on their own, excluding people with formal agreements to depart. The range includes legal and undocumented immigrants and relies partly on Mexican census data to estimate departures among other nationalities. DHS's 2.2 million self-departure figure appears to rely on falling immigrant population estimates in surveys, which critics say could also reflect people avoiding government surveys.

Congress approved billions for enforcement as officials defend the campaign

Congress approved $240 billion in immigration enforcement funding for DHS through fiscal year 2029. The funding allows ICE to hire 12,000 additional officers, more than doubling the agency's operational workforce.

The effort has also faced court challenges, immigration case backlogs and difficulty arranging removals to countries that refuse to accept their nationals. Officials have increasingly used voluntary departures and enforcement returns to speed removals and reduce pressure on crowded immigration courts.

DHS officials have maintained that living in the country illegally is enough reason for deportation. Tom Homan, the administration's border czar, told an audience in Florida on Oct. 1 that removals had accelerated that fall and would rise further in 2027.

“Mass deportation is happening,” Homan said. “I think September's going to be the highest deportations of any month in the history of ICE (Immigration Enforcement and Customs Enforcement). Right now we've arrested more people than in the history of this nation.” He later added: “Wait until you see what we do next year.”

Advocates cite due-process and speech concerns as court challenges continue

Rights advocates have said the crackdown violates due-process and free-speech rights and has made ethnic minorities feel unsafe, including through concerns about racial profiling. The deportation campaign has also faced legal challenges with mixed outcomes, alongside the logistical barriers identified in the report.

The study's record-based approach comes as detailed federal enforcement data have become less available to the public. Its figures were assembled from public records, DHS information obtained through FOIA and University of California data.

This article provides general information and is not legal advice. Consult a qualified immigration attorney about your specific case.