- Canada’s advisory panel says Ottawa needs better exit-tracking data for students and work-permit holders after status expires.
- The government aims to cut the temporary-resident population below five percent by the end of twenty twenty-seven.
- New arrival targets fall to three hundred eighty-five thousand in twenty twenty-six, then three hundred seventy thousand in twenty twenty-seven and twenty twenty-eight.
Canada’s immigration advisory panel is pressing Ottawa to reduce the temporary-resident population further and improve exit-tracking for students and work-permit holders whose status ends. The panel says officials need reliable departure records before they can determine how many people remain in Canada after their documents expire.
Mitra Mahboubi said the country is “flying in the dark” on what happens after temporary residents arrive. She pointed to gaps involving visa renewals, expired permits and departures.
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“We don’t have good data on the number of non-permanent residents with expired student visas or work permits exiting the country.”
Mahboubi added that officials currently rely on an assumption. “So we need better data of that, it’s just an assumption that people will leave when they have no status.”
The federal government has set a lower benchmark. Its 2026–2028 immigration plan seeks to bring temporary residents below 5% of the population by the end of 2027.
Mahboubi said that figure should represent a ceiling rather than a floor. She put the preferred range at 3% to 4% of the total population, which she said reflects historical averages.
Ottawa has cut arrivals, but counting departures remains harder
The plan already reduces the number of new temporary-resident arrivals. It lowers the target from 673,650 to 385,000 in 2026, then sets the figure at 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
The government separates those arrivals across work-related programs. Its 2026 figures are listed below.
| Program | 2026 arrivals |
|---|---|
| International Mobility Program | 170,000 |
| Temporary Foreign Worker Program | 60,000 |
Those targets count planned arrivals. They do not establish how many people later depart after a permit expires.
The panel wants permit records tied to actual departures
The policy problem begins after entry. Ottawa can record admissions and renewals, but weak departure information can make it difficult to identify how many former students and workers remain in the country without valid status.
The Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada committee materials say the department is working with the Canada Border Services Agency “to effectively monitor overstays.” That work places departure information inside a broader effort to assess people whose temporary status has ended.
The advisory panel is calling for further reductions as well as better records. Its position is a recommendation, not an automatic change to immigration status or permit rules.
The panel’s leadership appears in the material under two names. Kareen Mahboubi is identified as its chair, while Mikal Skuterud is identified as the panel’s head. Mahboubi’s comments focus on the data gap surrounding people who do not renew or leave.
The government’s numerical objective remains tied to the end of 2027. Officials will need to compare the population count with actual departures as permits expire.
The article carrying the recommendation was published August 30, 2026 at 6:00 a.m. and updated the same day. The scheduled arrival reductions and the separate work-program allocations give Ottawa fixed figures to track against future population data.
This article provides general information and is not legal advice. Consult a qualified immigration attorney about your specific case.
