2026 EB Green Card Outlook: Slow Progress and Regional Backlogs

(UNITED STATES) Employment-based green card applicants are heading into 2026 with a mix of slow progress and fresh worries about retrogression, especially for Indian and Chinese professionals. The key questions for many are simple but heavy: Will priority dates move forward, stay stuck, or even move backward again?

Current trends in the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories suggest that 2026 will bring limited relief for long-waiting applicants, while those from the rest of the world (ROW) remain in a far better position.

How Priority Dates Shape the 2026 Outlook

To understand what 2026 might look like, it helps to be clear about how priority dates work. For most employment-based cases, your priority date is:

• The date your employer filed the PERM labor certification, or
• If PERM was not required, the date your Form I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker was filed with USCIS.

The U.S. Department of State uses these dates in the monthly Visa Bulletin to decide who can move ahead to file Form I-485, the application to register permanent residence, or complete consular processing.

When demand in a category and country exceeds the annual visa supply, the government sets a cutoff date. If your priority date is earlier than that cutoff, you can move forward; if it is later, you must wait. When too many people become ready at once, the State Department can move cutoff dates backward — a process called retrogression — which can suddenly delay thousands of applicants.

Because U.S. law maintains strict per-country caps, India and China face the longest backlogs. For them, the 2026 question is not whether the system will fully clear, but whether small forward movements can outnumber backward shifts.

Overall 2026 Picture for EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3

Across the three main employment-based categories, the pattern for 2026 is uneven but clear:

Key takeaway from industry analysis (e.g., VisaVerge.com): “Slow progress with some retrogression, especially for Indian and Chinese nationals.” That reflects Visa Bulletin trends and USCIS comments about “unprecedented demand” and the long line of workers with approved I-140 petitions.

For applicants from ROW, EB categories remain relatively friendly. Many EB-1 and EB-3 ROW applicants can expect current or near-current dates, allowing a much faster path to a green card than peers from India and China.

EB-1 in 2026: Top Talent Still Waiting, but Less Pain than EB-2

EB-1 India: Small Steps, No Leap

The EB-1 category covers multinational managers, outstanding researchers, and people with “extraordinary ability.” For India, even EB-1 is not a guaranteed fast track anymore.

By late 2024 and into early 2025, EB-1 India began to move again after slow periods, offering hope to long-waiting applicants. At the same time, USCIS has signaled stronger worldwide EB-1 demand, meaning fewer “spillover” numbers for India. Historically, India benefited from unused EB-1 visas from other countries; as those leftovers shrink, dramatic forward movement becomes less likely.

Expectations for EB-1 India in 2026:

• Slow monthly movements, often just a few weeks at a time.
• Periodic stagnation, with some months showing no change.
• Major jumps unlikely unless worldwide EB-1 demand drops significantly.

For Indian managers, researchers, and extraordinary-ability applicants, EB-1 remains better than EB-2 in 2026, but it will not erase the backlog.

EB-1 China: Modest but Steady

EB-1 China faces a lighter backlog than India. Predictions point to modest, steady progress through 2026. Priority dates should move forward, though at a measured pace.

This offers many highly qualified Chinese professionals a workable path through EB-1 — especially if they file strong cases early and monitor the Visa Bulletin.

EB-1 Rest of World: Mostly Current

For EB-1 applicants from other countries, the outlook is much more positive. Demand is strong but manageable, and EB-1 ROW is expected to stay current or very close to current in 2026.

That allows many scientists, executives, and artists outside India and China to move from petition to green card in a relatively short period — often within a year or two.

EB-2 in 2026: India Faces the Harshest Retrogression

EB-2 India: Long Waits with Little Relief

If any group is hardest hit by retrogression in 2026, it is EB-2 India. This category covers professionals with advanced degrees or exceptional ability, including National Interest Waiver (NIW) filers.

Over the last decade, H-1B workers from India have filled EB-2 India with large numbers of approved I-140 petitions, far exceeding the annual quota. USCIS has referred to “unprecedented demand,” and the visa bulletin reflects a densely packed line.

Forecasts for EB-2 India in 2026:

• Very slow forward movement, with some months showing no movement.
• Ongoing risk of small backward shifts if too many cases become ready simultaneously.
• A backlog that will still stretch many years for most Indian applicants.

Practical consequence: many Indian professionals should plan for extended stays in nonimmigrant status (e.g., H-1B) while waiting for their priority dates to clear.

EB-2 China: Slight Progress, Less Pressure

EB-2 China is in a better position than India, though delays remain. Demand is strong but not as extreme, so expectations are for slight, steady progress through 2026.

Chinese EB-2 applicants will still face multi-year waits, but the chance of severe retrogression is lower than for India.

EB-2 Rest of World: Stable with Occasional Corrections

For EB-2 ROW, the picture is mixed but generally manageable. Late 2024 into 2025 saw pressure as more employers filed EB-2 petitions across many countries, prompting corrective retrogression at times.

Expectations for EB-2 ROW in 2026:

• Mostly stable, with priority dates close to current for much of the year.
• Occasional short-term retrogression when demand spikes.
• Re-stabilization after corrections, with forward movement returning.

ROW applicants should consider starting PERM early through the official PERM labor certification process: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/foreign-labor/programs/permanent.

EB-3 in 2026: Modest Hope, Especially Compared to EB-2 India

EB-3 India: Gradual Improvement, Possible Interfiling Plays

EB-3 (skilled workers, professionals, and other workers) often acts as a pressure valve for Indian professionals stuck in EB-2. At times, EB-3 India dates have moved faster than EB-2 India, enabling applicants to downgrade or interfile from EB-2 to EB-3 to reach a green card sooner.

For EB-3 India in 2026:

• Expect slow but real progress, without dramatic leaps.
• EB-3 may outpace EB-2 in some months, renewing interest in interfiling strategies.
• Applicants considering interfiling should work closely with attorneys because timing and risk management are critical.

EB-3 China: Better Movement than India

EB-3 China typically performs better than EB-3 India due to lower and more stable demand. Experts expect modest, steady forward movement in 2026, making this a more predictable route than the Indian EB-3 path.

EB-3 Rest of World: Largely Current

Among employment-based categories, EB-3 ROW is one of the most favorable in 2026. Predictions suggest it will remain current for much of the year, with only minor, brief retrogressions possible if demand spikes.

This makes EB-3 ROW an efficient path for employers bringing nurses, skilled trades workers, and other professionals to the United States permanently.

Structural Pressures Keeping Backlogs High

Several forces will push against progress in 2026, especially for EB-2 and EB-3 applicants from India and China:

• Per-country caps remain unchanged. U.S. law limits how many employment-based immigrant visas any single country can receive annually. India and China hit these caps regularly due to high numbers of applicants.
• Pent-up demand from H-1B workers with approved I-140 petitions is massive. Many have been renewing nonimmigrant status for a decade or more while waiting in line.
• Family-based immigration rebound. After pandemic years when family visas went unused (and spilled over to employment categories), consular processing has largely caught up. That reduces spillover into EB categories now.
• USCIS processing constraints. Staffing and backlogs at USCIS can slow I-140 and I-485 adjudications, producing unusual Visa Bulletin patterns as the State Department tries to align visa availability with USCIS capacity.

What Could Improve Conditions in 2026 and Beyond

A few trends could ease pressure over time, although none promise an immediate fix in 2026:

• $100,000 H-1B fee for certain high-volume employers: This may discourage some employers from filing many new H-1B petitions, potentially slowing future growth in EB-2 and EB-3 backlogs. However, this does not address the existing queues.
• Employer behavior changes: As H-1B costs rise, companies might sponsor green cards earlier—starting PERM and filing Form I-140 sooner. Early filings give employees more flexibility with job changes and long-term planning. See Form I-140 information here: https://www.uscis.gov/i-140.
• Visa recapture proposals in Congress: Recapturing unused employment-based visas from prior years could, if enacted, help:
  • Shorten EB-2 India wait times,
  • Boost EB-3 India,
  • Clear some EB-1 backlogs for India and China.

Important: Political agreement on immigration is difficult. Treat visa recapture as a possible future bonus, not a guaranteed solution.

Practical Strategies for Applicants Facing 2026 Retrogression

Given the mixed outlook, applicants should plan around priority dates and adopt practical strategies rather than hoping for sudden miracles.

Suggested actions by category and status:

• For EB-2 India applicants:
  • Discuss interfiling or downgrading to EB-3 with your attorney if EB-3 dates are more favorable.
  • Keep degree records, experience letters, and pay records well organized to act quickly when opportunities arise.
  • Don’t delay PERM or I-140 filings waiting for the Visa Bulletin; earlier priority dates are valuable.
• For EB-3 India applicants:
  • Monitor each monthly Visa Bulletin closely — small windows can open.
  • If you have both EB-2 and EB-3 I-140 approvals, consult your lawyer about which route offers the best chance in 2026.
• For new professionals on H-1B or F-1:
  • Encourage employers to start PERM early via the official PERM labor certification process: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/foreign-labor/programs/permanent.
  • If you have strong research, leadership, or impact credentials, explore EB-1 or EB-2 NIW options.
  • Keep long-term plans flexible (location, employer, family timelines).
• For applicants from the Rest of World:
  • File complete, accurate applications early to take advantage of mostly current categories.
  • Remember that short-term retrogressions can occur; delaying can be costly.

Key takeaway: By watching priority dates, preparing documents early, and being ready to shift categories when sensible, many applicants can still make progress in 2026 — even in a year marked by slow movement and periodic retrogression.