How a Government Shutdown Could Impact Thanksgiving Travel in 2025

(CHICAGO, NEWARK, ATLANTA) A prolonged government shutdown is already rippling through some of the nation’s busiest airports and threatens to upend Thanksgiving travel in 2025, with longer security lines, mounting airport delays and the risk of flight cancellations if the stalemate stretches into the holiday period. Essential Transportation Security Administration screeners and air traffic controllers are on the job without pay, a setup that has led to increased absenteeism and operational slowdowns at major hubs including Chicago O’Hare, Newark Liberty and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta, according to travel industry and airport officials tracking the impacts.

The crunch is expected to crest during the peak Thanksgiving travel window, which begins as early as November 21, a Friday this year. If the shutdown persists, air-traffic staffing shortages and stress on airport operations could collide with one of the busiest weeks of the year, creating longer queues at security checkpoints, heavier congestion in concourses and on taxiways, and more cascading delays across the network. Airlines and airports have been bracing for a surge akin to last year’s Thanksgiving rush, when nearly 80 million people planned to travel more than 50 miles, and any strain on federal staffing raises the odds of bottlenecks at precisely the wrong moment.

Industry groups warn the broader costs will mount quickly. Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, said,

“A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy—costing $1 billion every week—and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while placing unnecessary strain on an already overextended federal travel workforce.”

Concerns about confidence are already surfacing in polling. An Ipsos survey found that

“60% of Americans said they would cancel or avoid trips by air in the event of a shutdown,”

a sign that fear of disruption could deter some passengers before they even reach the airport.

The politics around the standoff have spilled into aviation. Senate Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said,

“Thanksgiving week is the biggest travel time of the year. If the Democrats are irresponsible enough to be trying to force air-traffic controllers and TSA to work without paychecks through Thanksgiving, the traveling public would pay the price.”

With air traffic controllers and TSA agents designated as essential personnel, they must report to work even as pay is delayed, a dynamic that has historically translated into higher sick leave and staffing gaps that ripple across schedules. At airports where the workforce has thinned, the result has been more ground holds, slower throughput at security, and crews timing out as delays cascade.

The most immediate pain for passengers has shown up in airport delays at the largest hubs. Chicago O’Hare has seen lines stretch as absenteeism rises among unpaid screeners and air traffic controllers, pinching early morning departures when banks of flights push out simultaneously. Newark Liberty has experienced holding patterns and gate delays as staffing constraints in the tower and TRACON slow sequencing, and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta—already the world’s busiest airport—has reported longer waits at checkpoints and tighter turnaround times at crowded concourses that can magnify even minor hiccups in aircraft flow.

If the government shutdown drags into the core Thanksgiving travel days, airlines face a steeper challenge to keep schedules intact. Air traffic controllers calling out because they are working without pay have already contributed to delays at major airports, and airlines say those delays are likely to worsen when traffic swells later in November. Once pushback times slip and aircraft stack up, stretched crews may hit duty limits, causing cancellations that strand passengers even if weather is clear. The dense schedules favored around the holiday—packed with full flights, tight turns, and scarce spare aircraft—leave little room to recover once the system stumbles.

Travelers who do see their flights canceled because of the shutdown are entitled to their money back, regardless of the fare type. Consumer guidance emphasizes,

“If your flight is canceled because of the shutdown, the U.S. Department of Transportation requires airlines to issue a refund—even if you purchased a non-refundable ticket. That’s the good news.”

Passengers can review the agency’s refund rules and complaint process on the U.S. Department of Transportation refund rules page, which outlines how carriers must handle cancellations and significant schedule changes.

Insurance is another pressure point. Policies that include “cancel for any reason” coverage have become more common this year, offering the widest safety net if plans change, but travelers should be precise about what their policies will and won’t cover. Only policies that explicitly allow cancellation due to a government shutdown will reimburse for disruptions tied to the stalemate. Without that clause, a traveler who simply no longer wishes to fly because of longer lines or potential delays may find they are not covered, even if the airport looks chaotic on the day of travel.

For those determined to travel, small adjustments can lower the risk of being caught up in airport delays. Arriving earlier than usual at the airport will help absorb long waits at security, especially at hubs where staffing has thinned and surges are common before the first wave of departures. Signing up for airline and airport alerts keeps passengers informed as gate assignments shift and departure boards change more often than usual. Booking flexible fares and leaving more room between connections offers a buffer if a short hold grows into a half-hour ground delay, which can easily happen when an understaffed control facility must slow the rate at which it feeds departures into busy airspace.

The stakes are highest at choke points like Chicago, Newark and Atlanta because minor slowdowns there can reverberate through the national system. A fifteen-minute ground delay at O’Hare during the morning push can send tardy aircraft on to hubs across the Midwest and East Coast, while a traffic management initiative over Newark’s congested airspace can ripple through transatlantic departures later in the day. In Atlanta, where banks of flights connect large swathes of the country, a temporary slowdown in security screening can spill into gate holds and missed connections as concourses densify with waiting passengers. These dynamics are common during busy periods, but the government shutdown adds a layer of fragility by pulling paychecks out of the equation for the federal workers who keep the system moving.

Public tolerance appears thin. The Ipsos finding that

“60% of Americans said they would cancel or avoid trips by air in the event of a shutdown”

signals not just inconvenience but a potential hit to demand if the stalemate endures into late November. Airlines that have leaned on strong holiday bookings may face a less predictable mix of no-shows and last-minute changes as travelers hedge their bets, while airports brace for crowding that is unevenly distributed through the day as passengers shift to earlier flights. The industry’s warning of a $1 billion weekly hit to the travel economy underscores how quickly a bureaucratic deadlock can show up in airport corridors, hotel bookings and restaurant tabs in gateway cities.

Politically, the optics of unpaid federal employees working through the holidays are stark. “Thanksgiving week is the biggest travel time of the year,” said Cruz, framing the showdown as a direct threat to household plans. In practical terms, the effect of a sustained funding lapse is more granular: a checkpoint lane that is not staffed during the morning rush; a position in a control tower left unmanned, which forces controllers to slow the rate of departures; or a maintenance inspection that takes longer because a part must be signed off by a skeleton crew. Each small delay is manageable on its own. Layered on top of full flights and dense schedules during Thanksgiving travel, they add up.

The uncertainty leaves families, students and workers weighing trade-offs. Some are choosing earlier departures to build in margins for missed connections; others are avoiding tight turnarounds at congested hubs like Newark or O’Hare. Those on fixed schedules, including military personnel, medical staff and hourly workers, have less flexibility and are more exposed if cancellations strand them overnight. Airports, for their part, can open overflow security lanes, deploy customer service staff and coordinate closely with airlines, but they cannot replace the federal screeners and controllers whose staffing levels ultimately set the pace.

With the holiday window approaching, the message from industry and officials is cautious: expect longer lines, prepare for airport delays, and plan around the possibility that a minor hiccup could become a missed connection. Geoff Freeman urged lawmakers to resolve the impasse before travel peaks, saying,

“A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy—costing $1 billion every week—and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while placing unnecessary strain on an already overextended federal travel workforce.”

The consumer bottom line is straightforward if flights are canceled:

“If your flight is canceled because of the shutdown, the U.S. Department of Transportation requires airlines to issue a refund—even if you purchased a non-refundable ticket. That’s the good news.”

Whether that reassurance outweighs the stress of a crowded airport on a holiday weekend may depend on what happens in Washington in the coming days—and whether the shutdown is lifted before the Thanksgiving rush begins on November 21.