The May 2026 Visa Bulletin predictions are based on detailed quantitative analysis of the March → April 2026 movement patterns. The April 2026 bulletin brought historic advances across multiple categories driven by reduced visa issuance under current administration policies. This forecast covers all employment-based and family-sponsored categories with exact date calculations, confidence levels, and actionable recommendations.
The Department of State typically releases the May 2026 Visa Bulletin around April 8-15, 2026. These predictions are calculated using the observed movement velocities from the March → April cycle and the explicit warning in the April bulletin that “retrogression may be necessary later in the fiscal year.”
May 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Comprehensive forecast based on quantitative analysis of March → April 2026 movement patterns. April brought historic advances — EB-2 India jumped 10 months, EB-2 ROW went Current, and EB-4 leaped a full year. Expected bulletin release: April 8-15, 2026. Fiscal Year 2026 Month 8.
Retrogression Warning for May 2026
The April 2026 bulletin explicitly warned: “retrogression may be necessary later in the fiscal year to keep issuances within annual limits.” Categories that advanced dramatically in April — EB-2 ROW (now Current), EB-3 ROW (+244 days), and several family categories — face elevated retrogression risk in May as filed applications surge in response to the advanced dates. EB-2 India’s 10-month leap may also slow significantly.
Prediction Methodology & Context
Predictions are calculated using exact day-to-day movement analysis from March → April 2026. The April bulletin’s extraordinary advances were driven by reduced visa issuance due to Presidential Proclamation 10949, Proclamation 10998, and consular processing slowdowns. High (80-100%): Stable or policy-consistent pattern. Medium (60-79%): Likely but depends on demand response. Low (<60%): Volatile — could advance further OR retrogress.
Quantitative Movement Analysis: March → April 2026
The March → April 2026 cycle produced the most dramatic movement in recent visa bulletin history. Multiple employment-based categories went Current, EB-2 India jumped 10 months in Final Action Dates, and EB-4 advanced a full year. The State Department attributed these advances to “decreased immigrant visa issuance rates” resulting from administration policies.
Employment-Based Movement Analysis
📈 EB Final Action Date Changes (Mar → Apr 2026)
📈 EB Dates for Filing Changes (Mar → Apr 2026)
Observed Mar→Apr Movement: +303 days
Moderation Factor: 0.66× (demand catch-up from massive advance)
Calculation: Jul 15, 2014 + (303 × 0.66) = Jul 15, 2014 + 200 days = Feb 1, 2015
Confidence: 55% (unprecedented advance rate; could slow more or accelerate)
Range: Dec 2014 – May 2015
Employment-Based Final Action Dates: May 2026 Predictions
Based on the April 2026 data showing extraordinary advances driven by policy-reduced visa issuance, we predict continued but moderating forward movement for most categories. The key question for May is whether the State Department sustains the aggressive advancement or pulls back to prevent overshooting annual limits in the final months of FY2026. For context on the April changes, see our April vs March 2026 key differences analysis.
| Category | Country | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 Pred | Mar→Apr | Apr→May | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | All Other | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% |
| China | Mar 1, 2023 | Apr 1, 2023 | May 1, 2023 | +31d | +30d | 85% | |
| India | Mar 1, 2023 | Apr 1, 2023 | May 1, 2023 | +31d | +30d | 85% | |
| Mexico | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| Philippines | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| EB-2 | All Other | Oct 15, 2024 | Current | Current | → Current | — | 85% |
| China | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| India | Sep 15, 2013 | Jul 15, 2014 | Feb 1, 2015 | +303d | +201d | 55% | |
| Mexico | Oct 15, 2024 | Current | Current | → Current | — | 85% | |
| Philippines | Oct 15, 2024 | Current | Current | → Current | — | 85% | |
| EB-3 | All Other | Oct 1, 2023 | Jun 1, 2024 | Nov 1, 2024 | +244d | +153d | 55% |
| China | May 1, 2021 | Jun 15, 2021 | Aug 1, 2021 | +45d | +47d | 80% | |
| India | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Oct 1, 2023 | Jun 1, 2024 | Nov 1, 2024 | +244d | +153d | 55% | |
| Philippines | Aug 1, 2023 | Aug 1, 2023 | Sep 1, 2023 | 0 days | +31d | 70% | |
| Other Workers | All Other | Nov 1, 2021 | Nov 1, 2021 | Jan 1, 2022 | 0 days | +61d | 75% |
| China | Dec 8, 2018 | Feb 1, 2019 | Apr 1, 2019 | +55d | +59d | 80% | |
| India | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Nov 1, 2021 | Nov 1, 2021 | Jan 1, 2022 | 0 days | +61d | 75% | |
| Philippines | Nov 1, 2021 | Nov 1, 2021 | Jan 1, 2022 | 0 days | +61d | 75% | |
| EB-4 | All Countries | Jul 15, 2021 | Jul 15, 2022 | Oct 1, 2022 | +365d | +78d | 60% |
| SR (Religious) | All Countries | Jul 15, 2021 | Jul 15, 2022 | Oct 1, 2022 | +365d | +78d | 60% |
| EB-5 Unreserved | All Other | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% |
| China | Aug 15, 2016 | Sep 1, 2016 | Sep 22, 2016 | +17d | +21d | 80% | |
| India | May 1, 2022 | May 1, 2022 | May 1, 2022 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Mexico | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| Philippines | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% |
EB-5 Set-Aside Categories
All EB-5 Set-Aside categories (Rural 20%, High Unemployment 10%, Infrastructure 2%) are predicted to remain Current for all countries in May 2026 with 95% confidence.
Employment-Based Dates for Filing: May 2026 Predictions
The April Dates for Filing chart saw several categories go Current (EB-3 ROW, Other Workers Mexico) and India continue its rapid advance. USCIS honored the Dates for Filing chart for both March and April 2026 — a critical signal for applicants who can file I-485 adjustments under these more favorable dates.
| Category | Country | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 Pred | Mar→Apr | Apr→May | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | China / India | Dec 1, 2023 | Dec 1, 2023 | Dec 1, 2023 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| EB-2 | India | Nov 1, 2014 | Jan 15, 2015 | Apr 1, 2015 | +75d | +75d | 60% |
| EB-2 | China | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| EB-2 | ROW / MX / PH | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 85% |
| EB-3 | India | Aug 15, 2014 | Jan 15, 2015 | Jun 15, 2015 | +153d | +151d | 55% |
| EB-3 | ROW / MX / PH | Jan 15, 2024 | Current | Current | → Current | — | 80% |
| EB-3 | China | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| OW | All Other | Jun 22, 2022 | Aug 1, 2022 | Sep 15, 2022 | +40d | +45d | 75% |
| OW | India | Aug 15, 2014 | Jan 15, 2015 | Jun 15, 2015 | +153d | +151d | 55% |
| OW | Philippines | Jun 22, 2022 | Jan 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | +558d | +91d | 60% |
| EB-4/SR | All Countries | Jan 1, 2023 | Jan 1, 2023 | Jan 1, 2023 | 0 days | 0 days | 80% |
India EB Categories: Detailed Analysis & Predictions
The April 2026 bulletin was transformative for Indian EB-2 applicants. The Final Action Date jumped 10 months (Sep 15, 2013 → Jul 15, 2014), the largest single-month advance for EB-2 India in recent memory. For a detailed breakdown of what this means for your priority date, see our April 2026 EB-2 India analysis. However, EB-3 India remained completely frozen, creating a widening gap between the two categories.
🇮🇳 India Final Action Date Predictions
🇮🇳 India Dates for Filing Predictions
EB-2 vs EB-3 India Gap Widening
The gap between EB-2 India Final Action (Jul 15, 2014) and EB-3 India Final Action (Nov 15, 2013) widened to 8 months (242 days) in April — up from just 4 months in February. If EB-2 India advances to Feb 2015 as predicted, the gap would reach 15 months. For applicants with priority dates between Nov 2013 and Feb 2015, EB-2 is now clearly the faster path. Consider upgrading from EB-3 to EB-2 if eligible.
🇮🇳 India EB-2 Wait Time Projections (at current rate)
Priority Date: 2015
~1-2 years (est. 2027-2028)
Priority Date: 2018
~3-5 years (est. 2029-2031)
Priority Date: 2021
~6-9 years (est. 2032-2035)
Priority Date: 2024
~10-14 years (est. 2036-2040)
Key EB-2 India Insight
At the current rate of ~200+ days per month advancement in Final Action, EB-2 India could reach 2016 priority dates by end of FY2026 (September 2026). However, this pace is unprecedented and unsustainable long-term. Expect moderation as demand materializes and DOS approaches annual limits. The administration’s policy-driven reduced consular processing is the primary accelerant — any policy reversal would immediately slow movement.
China EB Categories: Detailed Analysis & Predictions
Chinese applicants face a mixed picture. EB-2 China Final Action remains frozen at September 2021, while EB-3 China is advancing slowly at about 45 days per month. EB-1 China continues its steady one-month-per-month advance. The most concerning category remains EB-5 Unreserved China with its nearly 10-year backlog.
🇨🇳 China Final Action Date Predictions
🇨🇳 China Dates for Filing Predictions
China EB-5 Backlog: 10 Years and Growing
EB-5 Unreserved China Final Action Date at September 2016 represents a 10-year backlog. The Dates for Filing chart is equally frozen at October 2016. Chinese investors should strongly consider EB-5 Set-Aside categories (Rural 20%, High Unemployment 10%, Infrastructure 2%) which remain Current with zero backlog.
Family-Sponsored Categories: May 2026 Predictions
The April 2026 bulletin brought historic advances across family-sponsored categories, driven by the same reduced visa issuance pattern affecting employment-based categories. F1 All Other advanced 6 months, and several F2B and F3 categories saw multi-year jumps. These advances carry elevated retrogression risk in May.
Family Final Action Dates Predictions
| Category | Country | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 Pred | Mar→Apr | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | All Other / CN / IN | Nov 8, 2016 | May 1, 2017 | Nov 1, 2017 | +174d | 60% |
| Mexico | Dec 22, 2006 | Feb 15, 2007 | Apr 15, 2007 | +55d | 70% | |
| Philippines | Mar 1, 2013 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | +3,990d | 45% | |
| F2A | All Other / CN / IN / PH | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | 0 days | 80% |
| Mexico | Feb 1, 2023 | May 1, 2013 | May 1, 2013 | -3,558d | 50% | |
| F2B | All Other | Dec 1, 2016 | Feb 1, 2023 | May 1, 2023 | +2,254d | 45% |
| CN / IN / MX | Dec 2016 / Feb 2009 | May 22, 2017 | Aug 2017 | varies | 50% | |
| Philippines | Dec 22, 2012 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | +4,059d | 45% | |
| F3 | All Other | Sep 8, 2011 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | +4,529d | 40% |
| F4 | All Other | Jan 8, 2008 | Jun 8, 2008 | Nov 2008 | +151d | 60% |
Retrogression Risk: Family Categories
The extraordinary advances in F2B, F3, and F1 Philippines are the most retrogression-prone categories for May. When dates advance by years in a single month, the resulting flood of new applications often forces DOS to pull dates back sharply in subsequent months. If you became eligible to file due to April’s advances, file immediately — do not wait for May. F2A Mexico’s apparent retrogression to May 2013 signals the State Department is already adjusting for demand realities.
Diversity Visa (DV-2026): May Cut-Offs Already Published
The April 2026 bulletin already published May DV-2026 cut-off numbers. All regions remain at the same levels as April, showing no further advancement.
Official May 2026 DV Numbers (Already Published)
AFRICA: 55,000 (Algeria 37,000, Egypt 30,000) · ASIA: 35,000 (Nepal 10,000) · EUROPE: 20,000 · NORTH AMERICA (Bahamas): 50 · OCEANIA: 1,500 · SOUTH AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: 3,000. No change from April. DV-2026 deadline: September 30, 2026.
Summary: All May 2026 Key Predictions
| Category | Chart | Country | Apr 2026 | May 2026 Pred | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-2 | Final Action | India | Jul 15, 2014 | Feb 1, 2015 | +201 days | 55% |
| EB-2 | Filing | India | Jan 15, 2015 | Apr 1, 2015 | +75 days | 60% |
| EB-3 | Final Action | ROW / Mexico | Jun 1, 2024 | Nov 1, 2024 | +153 days | 55% |
| EB-3 | Filing | India | Jan 15, 2015 | Jun 15, 2015 | +151 days | 55% |
| EB-2 | Final Action | ROW / MX / PH | Current | Current | — | 85% |
| EB-1 | Final Action | China / India | Apr 1, 2023 | May 1, 2023 | +30 days | 85% |
| EB-3 | Final Action | India | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | 0 days (frozen) | 90% |
| EB-2 | Final Action | China | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | 0 days (frozen) | 85% |
| EB-4 / SR | Final Action | All Countries | Jul 15, 2022 | Oct 1, 2022 | +78 days | 60% |
| F1 | Final Action | All Other / CN / IN | May 1, 2017 | Nov 1, 2017 | +184 days | 60% |
📐 Prediction Methodology
- Data Sources: March 2026 Visa Bulletin (Vol XI, No. 12, CA/VO: Feb 5, 2026) and April 2026 Visa Bulletin (Vol XI, No. 13, CA/VO: Mar 4, 2026)
- Calculation Method: Exact day-to-day movement analysis between consecutive bulletins, with moderation factors applied where rates appear unsustainable
- Fiscal Year Context: May 2026 represents Month 8 of FY2026; DOS is in the second half of the fiscal year with potential need to manage numbers more conservatively
- Policy Context: Presidential Proclamation 10949 and 10998, combined with consular processing slowdowns, are the primary drivers of reduced visa issuance and resulting date advances
- Risk Assessment: Elevated retrogression risk for categories that saw multi-year advances in April (F2B, F3, F1 Philippines); moderate risk for EB-2 ROW remaining Current; low risk for frozen categories (EB-2 China, EB-3 India)
- Moderation Factors: For categories with 200+ day advances, predictions assume 50-66% of the previous rate, accounting for demand catch-up as applicants rush to file under advanced dates
📚 Official Sources & References
- U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin (Official)
- USCIS Visa Availability and Priority Dates
- March 2026 Visa Bulletin: Number 12, Volume XI (CA/VO: February 5, 2026)
- April 2026 Visa Bulletin: Number 13, Volume XI (CA/VO: March 4, 2026)
- VisaVerge: April vs March 2026 Visa Bulletin Key Differences
Disclaimer: These predictions are based on quantitative analysis of historical patterns and current visa bulletin data. Actual visa bulletin dates are determined solely by the U.S. Department of State and may differ from these projections. The April 2026 bulletin explicitly warned that “retrogression may be necessary later in the fiscal year to keep issuances within annual limits.” This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The May 2026 Visa Bulletin is expected to be released around April 8-15, 2026. Always verify dates on the official State Department website.
