The July 2026 Visa Bulletin has not yet been released by the U.S. Department of State, but the June bulletin’s warning sections, the May 22, 2026 EB-2 India per-country limit announcement, and analyst forecasts together paint a clear picture of what July will likely show. The headline call is straightforward: EB-2 India will appear as “U” (Unavailable) for the rest of FY-2026, EB-5 Unreserved India carries the single highest retrogression risk for July, and EB-2 China and EB-3 Philippines remain on active retrogression watch. Family-side categories should keep moving forward, though F2A’s five-month-per-bulletin pace likely decelerates. Below is the full category-by-category forecast for July 2026, with the official June numbers as the baseline.

This article is a pre-bulletin forecast based on the June 2026 Visa Bulletin (Number 15, Volume XI), the State Department’s official May 22, 2026 announcement that EB-2 India has reached its FY-2026 annual limit, and analyst predictions from Wolfsdorf Rosenthal, Fragomen, BAL, Shusterman, Murthy, and Capitol Immigration Law Group. Every predicted date will be updated to the official number the moment the July 2026 bulletin releases (expected mid-June 2026, with a CA/VO date roughly two weeks before July 1).

What Will Change from June to July 2026

The June bulletin laid out, in unusually direct language, the specific cells the State Department is preparing to act on. Section E retrogressed EB-1 India and EB-2 India and warned that further pull-back or unavailability was possible. Section F warned EB-2 China. Section G warned EB-3 Philippines. Section H specified “the next month” for EB-5 Unreserved India — the strongest warning language in the bulletin. On top of that, the State Department’s May 22, 2026 announcement that EB-2 India had reached its FY-2026 per-country limit means that category is now mechanically unavailable until October 1, 2026. The July bulletin will resolve at least one of these warning sections, and quite possibly all of them.

The other story in July is whether the family-side momentum continues. F2A advanced five months in June to January 1, 2025 — the third consecutive bulletin of roughly that pace. F2B Worldwide moved 123 days. F4 Worldwide moved 54 days. Most analysts expect those advances to continue in July but at a slower rate, since the cumulative F2A advance is already 11 months across three bulletins and the State Department typically tapers when a category gets close to current.

Employment-Based July 2026 Forecast: Final Action Dates

The Final Action chart governs visa issuance and, when USCIS designates it, adjustment of status filings. Here are the forecast July 2026 Final Action Dates with May and June for context, plus the predicted movement against June.

Why EB-2 India Will List as “Unavailable” in July

On May 22, 2026, the State Department’s Visa Office posted an explicit announcement: “India per-country limit reached in the EB-2 category.” Once a per-country limit is met for a fiscal year, the State Department lists the affected cell as “U” on both the Final Action chart and the Dates for Filing chart through the end of the fiscal year. That makes EB-2 India unavailable on both charts through September 30, 2026 with mathematical certainty — not a forecast, but a confirmed outcome. The category resets on October 1, 2026 (the start of FY-2027), and the September 1, 2013 Final Action date from the June bulletin is the starting reference point for what FY-2027 may show.

For pending I-485 applicants, an “Unavailable” designation does not result in denial. The case remains pending. USCIS simply cannot approve and issue the green card until a visa number is available. EADs, advance parole travel documents, H-1B portability, and AC21 protections all continue to apply during the unavailability window. An EB-2 to EB-3 India downgrade doesn’t help in the short term either — EB-3 India’s predicted January 15, 2014 cut-off remains many years behind most EB-2 India priority dates.

EB-1 India — Why Further Retrogression Is Likely

EB-1 India already pulled back 107 days in June, from April 1, 2023 to December 15, 2022, under Section E. The bulletin’s exact language was that “further retrogressions, or making the categories unavailable, may be necessary in the coming months if India’s pro-rated limits in the EB-1 or EB-2 categories are reached.” With EB-2 India already exhausted, EB-1 India is the next pressure point. Most attorney forecasts place the July EB-1 India Final Action date somewhere between August 2022 and October 2022 — a further 2 to 5 month pull-back. A formal “U” listing before September 30 is also plausible if EB-1 India approaches its own pro-rated limit. EB-1 India’s full FY-2026 trajectory shows how quickly this category has tightened.

EB-5 Unreserved India — The Single Highest-Probability Event for July

Section H of the June bulletin used the State Department’s sharpest warning language — specifying “the next month” rather than the looser “coming months” applied to EB-2 China and EB-3 Philippines. That timing-specific phrasing is the State Department’s way of telegraphing an action in the very next bulletin. The likely July outcome is one of two scenarios: a meaningful retrogression of EB-5 Unreserved India from May 1, 2022 back into late 2020 or early 2021, or an outright “U” listing through September 30. The EB-5 set-asides (Rural, High Unemployment, Infrastructure) are statutorily separate and remain Current — they are not at risk from this Section H warning. The May 2026 bulletin first raised this warning and the June bulletin sharpened it.

Employment-Based July 2026 Forecast: Dates for Filing

USCIS has used the Dates for Filing chart only sparingly for employment-based AOS in FY-2026 — having switched to Final Action Dates in May and held there in June. The Filing chart still matters because it sets the maximum reach if USCIS reverses course, and because the Filing dates govern NVC processing for consular cases. The July Filing chart is expected to mostly hold steady, with the exception of EB-2 India, which lists as “U” on the Filing chart as well.

The big USCIS question for July is whether the agency continues to require Final Action Dates for employment-based I-485 filings. USCIS shifted to Final Action Dates in May and held that determination for June. With EB-2 India now unavailable and additional retrogression risk hanging over July, there is no policy incentive for USCIS to reopen the more permissive Filing chart for EB-based AOS — the working forecast is a third consecutive month on Chart A.

Three Categories Remain Under Active Retrogression Warning

The June bulletin issued the most explicit retrogression-watch language of FY-2026. Section E covered the India retrogressions that already happened. Sections F, G, and H each named a specific cell on watch for the coming months. July is the venue where the State Department will resolve at least one of these — and possibly all three.

Family-Sponsored July 2026 Forecast: Final Action Dates

Family-sponsored categories have been the consistent bright spot of FY-2026, advancing in most bulletins while the employment side has tightened. F2A in particular has run hard — three consecutive bulletins of roughly 150-day advances. The July forecast keeps most family cells advancing but at a slower pace, reflecting both demand pipeline buildup and the State Department’s general practice of tapering rapid advances before they become unsustainable.

F2A — The Pace Likely Slows in July

F2A (spouses and minor children of LPRs) has advanced roughly 11 months across the April, May, and June bulletins — from February 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025 — at a uniform ~150-day-per-bulletin pace. That pace is unsustainable at a category-wide level. Most attorney forecasts call for July to extend the advance but at a slower rate, somewhere in the 6- to 10-week range. A January 1, 2025 to March 15, 2025 jump is the consensus midpoint, with mygcvisa.com forecasting March 22, 2025 and Shusterman’s model pointing to a 4- to 6-week move. Mexico F2A should track one year behind ROW per the bulletin’s standard chargeability rules.

F2A Dates for Filing is expected to remain Current for all chargeability areas. F2B ROW, F4 ROW/China, and F1 ROW are the other family cells most likely to advance — each by roughly 2 to 6 weeks. F4 India and F3 Mexico are the family cells most likely to hold, given their extreme backlogs.

Family-Sponsored July 2026 Forecast: Dates for Filing

DV-2026 July Cut-Offs (Already Pre-Announced by DOS)

Unlike the EB and FB charts, the Diversity Visa July cut-offs are not a forecast — they were officially pre-announced in Section C of the June 2026 bulletin. The State Department typically publishes the next month’s DV numbers a month in advance because consular interview scheduling runs on those numbers. The July 2026 DV cut-offs that follow are confirmed.

What You Should Do Now — Action Plan by Category

Forecasts only matter if they shape action. With EB-2 India confirmed unavailable, three other cells on active retrogression watch, and the July bulletin expected mid-June, the next 2 to 4 weeks are decisive for several applicant groups. The action plan below is organized by who you are.

What to Watch When the Official July Bulletin Releases

The official July 2026 bulletin will resolve four open questions. Track these in order — the first two are near-certainties, the last two will shape the August and September outlook.

July 2026 Forecast — Quick Reference

Single-glance summary of the highest-impact forecasts and confirmed outcomes in the July 2026 Visa Bulletin, with confidence indicators.

Disclaimer: This article is a pre-release forecast for the July 2026 Visa Bulletin. The official July bulletin has not yet been published by the U.S. Department of State and is expected mid-June 2026. Forecast dates marked with a tilde (~) are predictions based on the June bulletin’s warning sections, the May 22, 2026 EB-2 India per-country limit announcement, analyst predictions, and historical bulletin patterns. The EB-2 India “Unavailable” listing and the DV-2026 July cut-offs are not forecasts — both are confirmed by official DOS sources. This article will be updated with the official July 2026 numbers the moment the bulletin releases. Nothing here constitutes legal advice — always verify dates on the official State Department website and consult a licensed immigration attorney regarding your specific case.