The March 2026 Visa Bulletin predictions are based on detailed quantitative analysis of the January → February 2026 movement patterns. This comprehensive forecast covers all employment-based and family-sponsored categories with exact date calculations, confidence levels, and actionable recommendations for applicants across all chargeability areas.
The Department of State typically releases the March 2026 Visa Bulletin around February 8-12, 2026. These predictions are calculated using the observed movement velocities from the most recent bulletin cycle and historical mid-fiscal year patterns.
March 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Comprehensive forecast based on quantitative analysis of January → February 2026 movement patterns. Expected bulletin release: February 8-12, 2026. Fiscal Year 2026 Month 6.
Prediction Methodology & Confidence Levels
Predictions are calculated using exact day-to-day movement analysis from January → February 2026. High Confidence (80-100%): Consistent 2+ month pattern or historically stable category. Medium Confidence (60-79%): Single month data point with historical precedent. Low Confidence (<60%): Volatile pattern or insufficient data.
Quantitative Movement Analysis: January → February 2026
Before making predictions, we must understand the exact movements that occurred between January and February 2026. The following analysis calculates precise day differences for every category and country combination.
Employment-Based Movement Analysis
📈 EB Final Action Date Changes (Jan → Feb 2026)
📈 EB Dates for Filing Changes (Jan → Feb 2026)
Family-Sponsored Movement Analysis
📈 Family Final Action Date Changes (Jan → Feb 2026)
📈 Family Dates for Filing Changes (Jan → Feb 2026)
Observed Movement: +40 days per month
Calculation: June 1, 2023 + 40 days = July 11, 2023
Confidence: 85% (consistent single-month advancement pattern)
Employment-Based Final Action Dates: March 2026 Predictions
Based on the February 2026 data showing EB-3 ROW advancing 40 days while India and China remained frozen, we predict continued conservative movement for most categories in March 2026. The only employment category expected to advance is EB-3 for Rest of World, Mexico, and Philippines.
| Category | Country | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 Pred | Jan→Feb | Feb→Mar | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | All Other | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% |
| China | Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 1, 2023 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 1, 2023 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| Philippines | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| EB-2 | All Other | Apr 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| China | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | Jul 15, 2013 | Jul 15, 2013 | Jul 15, 2013 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Apr 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Philippines | Apr 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| EB-3 | All Other | Apr 22, 2023 | Jun 1, 2023 | Jul 11, 2023 | +40d | +40d | 85% |
| China | May 1, 2021 | May 1, 2021 | May 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Apr 22, 2023 | Jun 1, 2023 | Jul 11, 2023 | +40d | +40d | 85% | |
| Philippines | Apr 22, 2023 | Jun 1, 2023 | Jul 11, 2023 | +40d | +40d | 85% | |
| Other Workers | All Other | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| China | Dec 8, 2018 | Dec 8, 2018 | Dec 8, 2018 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Philippines | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| EB-4 | All Countries | Jan 1, 2021 | Jan 1, 2021 | Jan 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% |
| SR (Religious) | All Countries | Jan 1, 2021 | Unavailable | Unavailable | Expired | Pending | 65% |
| EB-5 Unreserved | All Other | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% |
| China | Aug 15, 2016 | Aug 15, 2016 | Aug 15, 2016 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | May 1, 2022 | May 1, 2022 | May 1, 2022 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Mexico | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| Philippines | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% |
EB-5 Set-Aside Categories
All EB-5 Set-Aside categories (Rural 20%, High Unemployment 10%, Infrastructure 2%) are predicted to remain Current for all countries in March 2026 with 95% confidence. These categories have consistently remained current since their introduction.
Employment-Based Dates for Filing: March 2026 Predictions
The Dates for Filing chart showed significant advancement for EB-3 ROW categories in February (+92 days). We predict continued forward movement in March, though the rate may moderate slightly as DOS calibrates visa usage during mid-fiscal year.
| Category | Country | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 Pred | Jan→Feb | Feb→Mar | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | All Other | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% |
| China | Aug 1, 2023 | Aug 1, 2023 | Aug 1, 2023 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| India | Aug 1, 2023 | Aug 1, 2023 | Aug 1, 2023 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Mexico | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| Philippines | Current | Current | Current | — | — | 95% | |
| EB-2 | All Other | Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 80% |
| China | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | Dec 1, 2013 | Dec 1, 2013 | Dec 1, 2013 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 80% | |
| Philippines | Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 80% | |
| EB-3 | All Other | Jul 1, 2023 | Oct 1, 2023 | Jan 1, 2024 | +92d | +92d | 75% |
| China | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | Jan 1, 2022 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | Aug 15, 2014 | Aug 15, 2014 | Aug 15, 2014 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Jul 1, 2023 | Oct 1, 2023 | Jan 1, 2024 | +92d | +92d | 75% | |
| Philippines | Jul 1, 2023 | Oct 1, 2023 | Jan 1, 2024 | +92d | +92d | 75% | |
| Other Workers | All Other | Dec 1, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| China | Oct 1, 2019 | Oct 1, 2019 | Oct 1, 2019 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| India | Aug 15, 2014 | Aug 15, 2014 | Aug 15, 2014 | 0 days | 0 days | 90% | |
| Mexico | Dec 1, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Philippines | Dec 1, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | Dec 1, 2021 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
India EB Categories: Detailed Analysis & Predictions
Indian applicants should expect continued stagnation across all employment-based categories in March 2026. The January → February 2026 pattern showed zero movement for India in all EB categories, which is typical for mid-fiscal year when DOS conserves visa numbers.
🇮🇳 India Final Action Date Predictions
🇮🇳 India Dates for Filing Predictions
EB-2 vs EB-3 India Gap Analysis
The gap between EB-2 India Final Action (Jul 15, 2013) and EB-3 India Final Action (Nov 15, 2013) is only 4 months (123 days). With both categories showing identical stagnation patterns, downgrading from EB-2 to EB-3 provides minimal benefit. Consider downgrade only if your priority date is between Jul 15, 2013 and Nov 15, 2013.
🇮🇳 India EB-2/EB-3 Wait Time Projections
Priority Date: 2015
~2-3 years (est. 2028-2029)
Priority Date: 2018
~5-7 years (est. 2031-2033)
Priority Date: 2021
~8-12 years (est. 2034-2038)
Priority Date: 2024
~12-15+ years (est. 2038-2041)
Fiscal Year 2026 YTD Movement: ~2 months advancement (Oct 2025 → Feb 2026)
Annualized Rate: ~4-6 months of priority dates per fiscal year
Backlog to 2024 Filers: ~11 years of priority dates
Estimated Wait for 2024 Filers: 11 years ÷ 0.5 years/year = ~22 years (theoretical)
Note: Legislation or policy changes could significantly alter this projection.
China EB Categories: Detailed Analysis & Predictions
Chinese applicants also face continued stagnation in March 2026 across all employment-based categories. The EB-5 Unreserved backlog for China remains particularly severe at nearly 10 years.
🇨🇳 China Final Action Date Predictions
🇨🇳 China Dates for Filing Predictions
China EB-5 Backlog: Nearly 10 Years
EB-5 Unreserved China continues to face a 9.5-year backlog with Final Action Date at August 15, 2016. Chinese investors should strongly consider EB-5 Set-Aside categories (Rural 20%, High Unemployment 10%, Infrastructure 2%) which remain Current for all countries with no backlog.
Family-Sponsored Categories: March 2026 Predictions
Family-sponsored categories showed notable movement for Mexico in February 2026, with F1 Mexico advancing 112 days and F2B Mexico advancing 92 days in Final Action Dates. We predict this strong movement pattern to continue in March 2026.
Final Action Dates Predictions
| Category | Country | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 Pred | Jan→Feb | Feb→Mar | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | All Other | Nov 8, 2016 | Nov 8, 2016 | Nov 8, 2016 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| China | Nov 8, 2016 | Nov 8, 2016 | Nov 8, 2016 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| India | Nov 8, 2016 | Nov 8, 2016 | Nov 8, 2016 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Mexico | Sep 1, 2006 | Dec 22, 2006 | Apr 13, 2007 | +112d | +112d | 75% | |
| Philippines | Mar 1, 2013 | Mar 1, 2013 | Mar 1, 2013 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| F2A | All Other | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| China | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| India | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Mexico | Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 1, 2023 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Philippines | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | Feb 1, 2024 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| F2B | All Other | Dec 1, 2016 | Dec 1, 2016 | Dec 1, 2016 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| China | Dec 1, 2016 | Dec 1, 2016 | Dec 1, 2016 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| India | Dec 1, 2016 | Dec 1, 2016 | Dec 1, 2016 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| Mexico | Nov 15, 2008 | Feb 15, 2009 | May 18, 2009 | +92d | +92d | 75% | |
| Philippines | Dec 22, 2012 | Dec 22, 2012 | Dec 22, 2012 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% | |
| F3 | All Countries | Various | Various | No change | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| F4 | All Countries | Various | Various | No change | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
Dates for Filing Predictions
| Category | Country | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 Pred | Jan→Feb | Feb→Mar | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | All Other/China/India/Phil | Sep 1, 2017 | Sep 1, 2017 | Sep 1, 2017 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| Mexico | Sep 1, 2007 | Dec 1, 2007 | Mar 2, 2008 | +91d | +91d | 75% | |
| F2A | All Countries | Dec 22, 2025 | Jan 22, 2026 | Feb 22, 2026 | +31d | +31d | 85% |
| F2B | All Other/China/India/Phil | Mar 15, 2017 | Mar 15, 2017 | Mar 15, 2017 | 0 days | 0 days | 85% |
| Mexico | Nov 15, 2009 | Feb 15, 2010 | May 18, 2010 | +92d | +92d | 75% |
Diversity Visa (DV-2026): March Cut-Offs (Official)
The February 2026 Visa Bulletin already published the official DV-2026 cut-off numbers for March. These are confirmed figures, not predictions.
Official March 2026 DV Numbers (Published)
The following DV-2026 cut-off numbers for March were already published in the February 2026 Visa Bulletin. These are confirmed official figures, not predictions. Deadline to use DV-2026 visas: September 30, 2026.
| Region | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 (Official) | Jan→Feb | Feb→Mar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRICA | 35,000 | 45,000 | 45,000 | +10,000 | 0 |
| — Algeria (except) | 20,000 | 37,000 | 37,000 | +17,000 | 0 |
| — Egypt (except) | 16,000 | 21,000 | 22,250 | +5,000 | +1,250 |
| ASIA | 15,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 | +15,000 | 0 |
| — Nepal (except) | 6,000 | 6,500 | 6,500 | +500 | 0 |
| EUROPE | 8,500 | 11,000 | 11,000 | +2,500 | 0 |
| NORTH AMERICA (Bahamas) | 20 | 25 | 30 | +5 | +5 |
| OCEANIA | 1,100 | 1,175 | 1,200 | +75 | +25 |
| SOUTH AMERICA & CARIBBEAN | 1,850 | 2,000 | 2,100 | +150 | +100 |
Religious Workers (SR) Status & Outlook
SR Category Expired January 30, 2026
The Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR) category expired on January 30, 2026 per H.R. 5371. The category is listed as “Unavailable” for February 2026 and will remain Unavailable in March 2026 unless Congress passes new legislation. If extended, the category would immediately become available with the same dates as EB-4.
📋 SR Category Timeline
🔮 Extension Scenarios
Summary: All March 2026 Predictions
| Category | Chart | Country | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 Pred | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-3 | Final Action | ROW/Mexico/Philippines | Jun 1, 2023 | Jul 11, 2023 | +40 days | 85% |
| EB-3 | Filing | ROW/Mexico/Philippines | Oct 1, 2023 | Jan 1, 2024 | +92 days | 75% |
| EB-2 | Final Action | India | Jul 15, 2013 | Jul 15, 2013 | 0 days | 90% |
| EB-3 | Final Action | India | Nov 15, 2013 | Nov 15, 2013 | 0 days | 90% |
| EB-2 | Final Action | China | Sep 1, 2021 | Sep 1, 2021 | 0 days | 90% |
| F1 | Final Action | Mexico | Dec 22, 2006 | Apr 13, 2007 | +112 days | 75% |
| F2A | Filing | All Countries | Jan 22, 2026 | Feb 22, 2026 | +31 days | 85% |
| F2B | Final Action | Mexico | Feb 15, 2009 | May 18, 2009 | +92 days | 75% |
📐 Prediction Methodology
- Data Sources: January 2026 Visa Bulletin (Vol XI, No. 10, CA/VO: Dec 2, 2025) and February 2026 Visa Bulletin (Vol XI, No. 11, CA/VO: Jan 5, 2026)
- Calculation Method: Exact day-to-day movement analysis between consecutive bulletins, with projection using observed velocity
- Fiscal Year Context: March 2026 represents Month 6 of FY2026; DOS typically maintains conservative allocation mid-fiscal year
- Confidence Scoring: Based on pattern consistency, historical precedent, and category stability
- Risk Assessment: Low retrogression risk for most categories; medium risk for EB-2/EB-3 ROW if demand exceeds supply
📚 Official Sources & References
- U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin (Official)
- USCIS Visa Availability and Priority Dates
- January 2026 Visa Bulletin: Number 10, Volume XI (CA/VO: December 2, 2025)
- February 2026 Visa Bulletin: Number 11, Volume XI (CA/VO: January 5, 2026)
Disclaimer: These predictions are based on quantitative analysis of historical patterns and current visa bulletin data. Actual visa bulletin dates are determined solely by the U.S. Department of State and may differ from these projections. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The March 2026 Visa Bulletin is expected to be released around February 8-12, 2026. Always verify dates on the official State Department website.
