Nanos Research: Canadian Travel to U.S. Falls in February 2026 as Policy Tensions Rise

(UNITED STATES) — Canadian travelers cut trips to the United States sharply in early 2026, with February 2026 data and new surveys pointing to policy tensions, trade tariffs and broader geopolitical concerns as leading reasons for the pullback.

Travel from Canada to the United States fell across both air and land routes, hitting shopping trips, vacations and other forms of Canadian travel that have long supported border communities, airports and tourism businesses. The drop has also coincided with a shift toward other destinations, including overseas travel.

Canadian-resident return trips from the United States fell 14.5% in February 2026 compared to February 2025, and 31.5% compared to February 2024. Vehicle returns at land border crossings decreased by 12.9% from the prior year, while air travel returns dropped 17.6%.

Those declines were matched by separate travel measures showing fewer departures from Canada to the U.S. Air travel from Canada to the United States posted an 18% year-over-year decline, while vehicle excursions fell 15% in February 2026 versus February 2025.

Survey findings suggest the drop is not a short-term fluctuation alone. A Nanos Research poll released in mid-March 2026 found that 43% of Canadians say they are less likely to travel to the United States in 2026.

An Angus Reid survey from mid-February 2026 showed 48% of respondents had already or were seriously likely to cancel or delay plans to travel to the U.S. In Quebec, of the 20% who had planned U.S. travel in 2025, 45% had either already cancelled or intended to cancel their trips.

The travel slowdown has unfolded against a wider political backdrop. The decline accelerated following President Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods on February 1, 2025.

That timing has made trade and diplomatic friction part of everyday travel decisions for many Canadians. Research by Longwoods International indicates that approximately 23% of Canadian travelers have actively canceled previously planned excursions to the United States.

Longwoods found U.S. government policies and trade tariffs were cited by 59% of respondents as primary reasons for reluctance. Other factors included rising travel costs, unfavorable exchange rates, safety and political relations concerns, and border scrutiny and entry uncertainty.

Taken together, those pressures point to a broader change in sentiment around cross-border movement. For years, short-haul U.S. trips by car and plane were a routine part of travel planning for many Canadians, especially in communities near the border, but the early 2026 data show a clear retreat.

The land-border figures are especially important because Canadian travel by car has traditionally formed a large share of U.S.-bound trips. A 12.9% drop in vehicle returns at land crossings signals fewer shopping runs, shorter leisure breaks and fewer spontaneous visits that many local businesses depend on.

Air travel tells a similar story. A 17.6% decline in Canadian-resident return trips by air from the United States, alongside an 18% year-over-year drop in air travel from Canada to the U.S., suggests the weakness extends beyond same-day driving trips and into longer-planned flights.

That matters for airlines and airports as well as hotels and attractions. When Canadian passengers hold back on U.S. bookings, the effect spreads across ticket sales, airport traffic, destination spending and related services tied to leisure travel.

The impact is already visible in regions with deep cross-border ties. The Fargo-Moorhead area in North Dakota, a frequent destination for Canadian road-trippers, experienced a 20% decline in Canadian visitors.

Border retailers are also feeling the pullback. The Emerson Duty-Free Shop on the Canada-U.S. border reported traffic and sales down 50-75% from typical pre-pandemic rates.

Airport traffic has weakened too. The Winnipeg Airports Authority reported U.S. travel decreased 8% in 2025 and continues trending downward in 2026.

Those local figures show how a national shift in travel intentions can quickly translate into lost business in nearby markets. Communities that rely on Canadian visitors for hotel stays, restaurant spending, fuel purchases and duty-free shopping have been among the first to register the change.

The decline carries a broader financial cost for the United States tourism sector. Longwoods estimated the drop represents a $4.5 billion loss to the U.S. tourism industry.

At the same time, American travel to Canada increased by approximately 6%, creating an asymmetrical pattern. That divergence suggests the slowdown is not simply the result of weaker overall demand for cross-border trips, but a more specific reduction in Canadian appetite for U.S. travel.

The imbalance is striking because Canada has long been one of the most dependable sources of foreign visitors to the United States. When those travelers change course, even modest shifts can ripple widely through destinations that are accustomed to steady Canadian demand.

February 2026 offers one of the clearest snapshots yet of that redirection. Canadians increasingly chose destinations other than the United States, with overseas arrivals up 7.2% in February 2026.

In another marker of changing habits, more Canadian residents returned from overseas by air than crossed U.S. land borders during February. That comparison points to a rerouting of travel dollars, time and attention away from nearby U.S. destinations and toward longer-haul options.

For the U.S. tourism industry, that shift raises a practical problem. Trips lost from Canada may not be easily replaced, especially in border states and cities where Canadian visitors represent repeat customers rather than one-time tourists.

Travel decisions often turn on a mix of cost, convenience and comfort. In the current environment, Canadians face rising travel costs and unfavorable exchange rates alongside concerns tied to politics, border scrutiny and uncertainty around entry, all of which make U.S. trips less appealing than they were in earlier years.

Those concerns appear broad rather than confined to one province or one type of traveler. The Angus Reid findings from Quebec show that the retreat includes travelers who had already planned U.S. trips, not only those still considering future options.

That distinction matters because cancellations and delays affect businesses differently from a simple slowdown in new bookings. When travelers scrap existing plans, the effect can hit airlines, hotels and attractions closer to the departure date.

Nanos Research and Angus Reid together suggest that caution toward U.S. travel has spread beyond isolated complaints. One poll found 43% of Canadians are less likely to travel to the United States in 2026, while the other found 48% had already or were seriously likely to cancel or delay plans.

Longwoods adds another layer by focusing on people who had already intended to go. Its finding that approximately 23% of Canadian travelers canceled previously planned U.S. trips points to a measurable break between travel interest and actual travel behavior.

The reasons cited also show that economics and politics have become intertwined in trip planning. U.S. government policies and trade tariffs ranked first, but they sit alongside practical pressures such as exchange rates and costs, as well as unease over safety, political relations and treatment at the border.

For Canadian travel, the effect is not simply fewer crossings. It is also a reordering of choices, with some travelers delaying plans, some canceling outright and others redirecting to destinations outside the United States.

That redirection has given Canada and other markets some offsetting gains. American travel to Canada has risen, and overseas arrivals from Canadian residents have increased, but those gains do not soften the blow for U.S. border towns, airport routes and tourism operators that depend on nearby Canadian demand.

The February 2026 numbers also suggest the trend has persisted long enough to move beyond a single month of weakness. Travel had already softened after February 1, 2025, and the latest figures indicate the downward movement has continued into a new year.

For businesses near the border, the pattern is easy to see in parking lots, store traffic and booking flows. A 20% decline in Canadian visitors in Fargo-Moorhead and 50-75% drops in traffic and sales at Emerson Duty-Free Shop from typical pre-pandemic rates point to fewer cars, fewer purchases and fewer stopovers.

Airports face a slower-moving version of the same trend. Winnipeg Airports Authority said U.S. travel decreased 8% in 2025 and continues trending downward in 2026, mirroring the broader fall in cross-border demand.

What emerges from the data is a travel map that looks different from the one many North American destinations had come to expect. Canadian travelers are still taking trips, but a larger share are choosing not to head south.

With 43% of Canadians telling Nanos Research they are less likely to visit the United States in 2026, and with February 2026 posting steep declines by both road and air, the pullback has become one of the clearest signs yet that trade friction and political unease are reshaping movement across one of the world’s busiest borders.