(FLORIDA) Air travel across the United States 🇺🇸 faces a sharp squeeze heading into Thanksgiving 2025, with federal officials and union leaders warning that deepening fatigue among air traffic controllers could tip the system into widespread cancellations if the federal government shutdown doesn’t end soon.
Controllers have been working without pay since October 1, 2025, and by early November, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had begun cutting flight schedules at dozens of busy airports to cope with thinning ranks and rising error risk. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that if the shutdown stretches into the holiday rush, air traffic could “slow to a trickle,” leaving “a lot of angry Americans” and stranding travelers through one of the busiest weeks of the year.
What’s driving the slowdown
What’s driving the sudden slowdown is not a single failure but the cumulative strain on the people who manage the nation’s skies. After more than a month without compensation, union leaders say air traffic controllers are experiencing unprecedented levels of fatigue.
“We’re not just tired; we’re broken,” said one controller working in Florida’s crowded airspace, describing shifts that feel like a “marathon, and there’s no finish line.”
The FAA acknowledged in an advisory that “after 31 days without pay, air traffic controllers are under immense stress and fatigue.” Analysis by VisaVerge.com warns this fatigue signals a mounting safety concern because controllers handle hundreds of complex decisions per shift, and even brief lapses compound risk in busy corridors.
Financial pressures and staffing losses
The financial strain has pushed many controllers to the brink:
- Some can’t afford childcare to get to work.
- Others are moonlighting as delivery drivers or selling plasma to cover rent and utilities.
- These coping choices reduce available rest between shifts.
Managers report a further staffing blow: 15 to 20 controllers per day are retiring early, accelerating a shortfall that predates the shutdown. Meanwhile, training for new recruits is on hold, leaving classrooms empty and simulations idle just as seasoned staff depart faster than expected.
Safety reports and operational impacts
By early November, safety concerns moved from theory to record:
- Pilots filed more than 500 safety reports since the shutdown began, detailing controller errors linked to fatigue (aircraft lined up too closely, clearances needing rapid correction, moments of crew-managed confusion).
- Aviation consultant Ross Sagun noted the system depends on layers of redundancy—extra staff, supervisors, and technology—to catch errors before harm occurs. “When you remove one layer of redundancy or staffing,” he said, “things get a little bit shaky.”
That shakiness is showing in day-to-day operations at crowded hubs and regional towers.
Flight reductions and cancellations
To ease stress on thin crews, the FAA cut scheduled flights at 40 high-volume airports during core hours (6 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time).
- Initial reductions: 4% on Friday, November 7
- Increased reductions: 10% by November 14
- Immediate impact: On Monday, November 10, airlines scrapped more than 2,100 flights, part of 5,500 cancellations recorded from Friday through Sunday
These cuts affected major carriers and rippled through smaller airlines that connect to big-city hubs. Duffy warned further reductions—possibly up to 20%—may be necessary if the shutdown continues and controllers miss another pay period.
Paused safety activities and training
Critical safety activities remain suspended:
- Equipment maintenance and modernization projects are paused
- Routine safety oversight—inspections and software updates—has been delayed
- Training for new hires is frozen
These pauses add another layer of risk for fatigued teams, who are managing with systems that are less maintained and fewer new controllers ready to step in. The result: fewer hands to manage increasingly complex traffic, especially during weather events and peak travel windows.
Risk of airspace closures
Officials worry reductions could escalate to airspace closures.
- Duffy warned that if staffing deteriorates further, the government may need to close some airspace because it “cannot manage it” safely without enough controllers.
- Closures would be extraordinary and disruptive—rerouting flights around key corridors and forcing airlines to ground planes when detours are too long or aircraft aren’t available.
Even without closures, the system is straining. From October 1 to November 7, controller shortages disrupted more than 4 million passengers on U.S. carriers. On one Saturday, staffing-related delays exceeded 3,000 hours, with staffing problems accounting for 71% of all delay time.
The feedback loop of delays
The disruption creates a brutal feedback loop:
- Late flights cause crews to time out.
- Aircraft fall out of position.
- Schedules break and cancellations cascade.
Analysts describe the effect plainly: “delays and cancellations beget delays and cancellations.” On recent weekends, staffing accounted for 65% to 84% of delays, compared with only 5% before the shutdown. Congested regions like Florida and the Northeast Corridor are especially vulnerable—small staffing gaps can trigger network-wide disruptions.
Passenger experience and choices
Travelers face a high risk that Thanksgiving could become a test of patience rather than a holiday homecoming:
- Morning flights are likelier to operate.
- Nonstop flights are easier to keep on time.
- Flexible tickets can cushion last-minute changes.
If cancellations spike, standby lists will grow and rebooking options will dry up. Families may have to decide whether to drive, depart earlier, or skip trips altogether.
Airport security and checkpoints
The bottlenecks aren’t limited to the air. TSA staffing patterns could mirror the 2018–2019 shutdown, when absentee rates rose from about 3% to 10%. Early signs already appear:
- Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport saw three-hour waits at security weeks before peak travel days.
Longer checkpoint lines increase missed flights and connections, which feed back into crew and aircraft shortages airlines are already juggling.
Recovery timeline and safety considerations
Even if the shutdown ends soon, recovery won’t be immediate:
- Controllers need regular training to remain current on procedures and policies.
- A prolonged pause means many will require retraining before resuming full duty.
- Retraining can’t be rushed without increasing safety risk.
This means disruptions could extend through Thanksgiving and into the Christmas travel period as schedules are rebuilt and crews and equipment are repositioned.
Human toll inside towers and radar rooms
The human cost is mounting:
- Veteran controllers report colleagues breaking down under stress from missed mortgage payments and childcare crises.
- Younger recruits are stalled while training is suspended.
- Supervisors are shifting personnel between facilities, increasing strain as teams handle unfamiliar traffic patterns with fewer mentors.
The workforce is being asked to manage a national network while worrying about basic bills at home.
Airlines’ dilemma
Airlines face tough operational choices with rolling cuts of 10% and talk of 20% reductions:
- Options include freezing new bookings, consolidating flights, or preemptively canceling to give travelers time to adjust.
- Pre-canceling reduces same-day chaos but hits revenue.
- Waiting risks a day-of meltdown that’s harder to recover from.
For travelers, expect limited choices and plan accordingly.
Safety oversight and official resources
The broader safety picture remains central to regulators. The FAA’s acknowledgement of “immense stress and fatigue” marks an unusually blunt public concern, and the agency continues to adjust operations to reduce strain on controllers.
- Official updates and operational advisories are available from the Federal Aviation Administration.
- The FAA has not offered a timeline for restoring normal capacity; any increase in flights will depend on staffing, rest, and the ability to restart training and maintenance programs.
Broader consequences and final warning
For families, the cost is more than logistical: missed connections mean missed holidays and stretched budgets. For immigrant communities, the squeeze could block year-end trips abroad. For workers—controllers, pilots, ramp crews, and TSA officers—the strain of working through uncertainty grows daily.
Duffy’s sobering warning stands: if pay and staffing aren’t restored, some airspace may have to close. That would force coast-to-coast reroutes and could ground additional flights. As one controller put it:
“Either we pay people to do this job safely, or we stop pretending the system can run on fumes.”
With air traffic controllers battling fatigue and the federal government shutdown showing no quick end, the week of Thanksgiving is shaping up to test every weak link in America’s air travel chain.
This Article in a Nutshell
The federal government shutdown, starting October 1, 2025, has left air traffic controllers unpaid, producing severe fatigue, early retirements, and paused training. The FAA reduced schedules at 40 high-volume airports—initially 4% on November 7 and 10% by November 14—leading to thousands of cancellations, including over 2,100 on November 10. More than 500 safety reports cite errors linked to fatigue. Paused maintenance and frozen training heighten risk; officials warn airspace closures and extended disruption through Thanksgiving are possible.
