- SSA announces the 2027 COLA on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, the morning September CPI data is released.
- With July and August CPI-W already in, a flat September produces a 3.4% COLA; forecasts range from 3.3% to 3.6%.
- A 3.5% raise adds about $73 a month to the average $2,087 retirement check, before a projected $209.50 Part B premium.
The Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, shortly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September inflation data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Forecasters expect a raise of about 3.3% to 3.6%, the largest since the 8.7% increase for 2023 and well above the 2.8% COLA beneficiaries received for 2026.
Two of the three numbers that decide the raise are already public. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) stood at 327.104 in July and 328.481 in August. Run through the formula in the Social Security Act, those readings put the 2027 COLA at 3.4% if September prices merely hold at August’s level. A September CPI-W above 329.047 would lift it to 3.5%.
Free toolSubstantial Presence Test CalculatorThe increase applies to the December 2026 benefit, which is paid in January 2027. For the average retired worker, who collected about $2,087 a month in August 2026, a 3.5% COLA adds roughly $73 a month. Part of that will go straight back to Medicare: the Part B premium, already $202.90 in 2026, is projected to rise again, and Medicare will not announce the 2027 figure until November.
Below: the exact announcement timing, how the formula works with the numbers already in hand, what September has to show for each possible COLA, the leading forecasts, what each scenario means for monthly checks, and the other 2027 figures, including the Social Security wage base, that change at the same time.
When the 2027 COLA Is Announced and When It Reaches Checks
SSA cannot finalize the COLA until it has the September CPI-W, so the agency publishes the new rate the same morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September consumer price report. That report is scheduled for October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. SSA has followed this pattern for years: the 2026 COLA of 2.8% was announced the day September 2025 inflation data came out.
The new rate takes effect with benefits for December 2026. Because Social Security pays one month in arrears, beneficiaries first see the raise in payments made in January 2027. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) works differently: the higher SSI rate applies to payments for January 2027, and because January 1 is a federal holiday, that SSI payment arrives on Thursday, December 31, 2026.
People who started benefits before May 1997, or who receive both Social Security and SSI, are paid on the 3rd of the month. January 3, 2027 falls on a Sunday and the prior business day, January 1, is a holiday, so that group’s first raised payment is also due on December 31, 2026.
How the COLA Formula Works, Using the Numbers Already Published
The COLA is not a forecast or a political decision. The Social Security Act fixes the formula: SSA takes the average CPI-W for July, August and September of the current year and compares it with the same third-quarter average from the last year a COLA took effect. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, becomes the COLA. If prices fall, benefits do not; the COLA is simply zero, as it was for 2009, 2010 and 2015.
For 2027 the base is the third quarter of 2025. SSA’s own computation for last year’s 2.8% COLA lists the CPI-W at 316.349 for July 2025, 317.306 for August and 318.139 for September, an average of 317.265. The 2026 readings so far average 327.793 across July and August, already 3.3% above that base before September is counted.
The formula uses CPI-W, not the headline CPI that makes news. CPI-W tracks spending by households that earn most of their income from hourly and clerical work, so it weights gasoline, transportation and food more heavily than the overall index. That is why the CPI-W rose 3.5% over the year to August 2026 while the broader CPI rose 3.4%, and why higher energy prices this summer pushed COLA estimates up.
What September’s Inflation Number Has to Show for Each COLA
With July and August fixed, the only unknown is September. Working backward from the 317.265 base gives a precise range of September CPI-W readings for each possible COLA. VisaVerge ran the calculation using SSA’s rounding rule (third-quarter average to three decimals, result to one decimal).
The takeaway: a 3.5% COLA needs September’s CPI-W to rise at least about 0.2% from August, which is close to a normal month for 2026. A 3.6% COLA, the high end of current forecasts, needs a jump of roughly 0.5%, which happened in only a few months this year. Anything below a small decline still leaves the raise at 3.3% or better.
The Leading 2027 COLA Forecasts
Every major forecaster updated its estimate after the August inflation report on September 11. The spread is narrow, from 3.3% to 3.6%, and the differences come from how each group models September energy prices.
- AARP: 3.6%, up from 3.5% in August. AARP says that would add about $75 to the average retired worker’s check.
- Kiplinger staff economist David Payne: 3.6%, arguing that high energy prices are bleeding into other categories.
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL): 3.5%, down from 3.6% in July. TSCL estimates the average benefit would rise from $2,087.52 to $2,160.58, an increase of $73.06.
- Mary Johnson, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst: 3.5%, up from 3.4% in August, with a warning that volatile oil prices could move it.
- 24/7 Wall St. tracking estimate: 3.3%, the low outlier, based on July and August CPI-W alone.
TSCL’s month-by-month tracker shows how the outlook moved during 2026: its projection sat at 2.8% from January through March, jumped to 3.9% in April as energy prices spiked, held at 3.8% in May and June, then eased to 3.6% in July and 3.5% in August. Any of the current estimates would deliver the biggest raise since 2023.
What a 3.3% to 3.6% COLA Means for Monthly Checks
The COLA is a flat percentage applied to every beneficiary’s gross benefit, before Medicare premiums or tax withholding are taken out. SSA rounds Social Security benefits down to the next lower dime, and SSI federal payment rates down to the next lower whole dollar, so actual amounts can land a few cents below the figures here.
In dollar terms, each tenth of a percentage point is worth about $2 a month to the average retiree, or roughly $25 a year. The gap between the low and high forecasts is therefore about $6 a month for a typical check, far smaller than the swing from Medicare premiums described below.
Medicare Part B Will Take Part of the Raise
Most retirees have their Medicare Part B premium deducted directly from their Social Security payment, so the premium increase comes out of the COLA first. The standard Part B premium rose $17.90 to $202.90 a month for 2026, and the annual Part B deductible rose to $283.
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a 2027 standard premium of $209.50 and a Part B deductible of $292, with the Part A deductible rising from $1,736 to $1,788. Those are projections; the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services usually announces the final 2027 premium in November. Some 2027 Part D figures are already set: the standard deductible rises from $615 to $700, and the annual out-of-pocket cap rises from $2,100 to $2,400.
If the Trustees’ projection holds, the premium increase would absorb about $6.60 of the average retiree’s roughly $73 raise. Higher earners pay more through the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA), which for 2026 starts at modified adjusted gross income above $109,000 for single filers and $218,000 for married couples filing jointly, based on tax returns from two years earlier. A large one-time 2025 retirement withdrawal or capital gain can therefore raise a 2027 premium.
A “hold harmless” rule protects many beneficiaries from a net cut: for most people whose Part B premium is deducted from Social Security, the premium increase cannot exceed the dollar amount of their COLA. With a COLA above 3%, very few will need that protection in 2027.
The Other 2027 Numbers Announced the Same Day
The October announcement also updates figures that are tied to the national average wage index rather than to inflation. These affect workers as much as retirees: the taxable maximum (the earnings cap for the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax), the earnings limits for people who claim before full retirement age, the earnings needed for a work credit, and the disability earnings threshold.
Medicare’s 1.45% hospital insurance tax has no cap, and the additional 0.9% Medicare tax still applies to wages above $200,000 for single filers. Only the 6.2% Social Security portion stops at the taxable maximum. Lawmakers have proposed lifting or removing that cap, including the You Earned It, You Keep It Act, but none has passed.
What the Change Means for Immigrants, H-1B Workers and Retirees Abroad
H-1B and other high earners. A worker earning $200,000 in 2026 stops paying the 6.2% Social Security tax once wages pass $184,500, usually in the final weeks of the year. If the 2027 base rises to about $190,200, the maximum employee tax rises by about $353 and the point where withholding stops moves later in the year. Workers who change employers mid-year often have Social Security tax withheld above the cap by both employers; the excess is refunded as a credit on the Form 1040. Students who move from F-1 OPT to H-1B start paying FICA when the status changes; see our guide to the F-1 Social Security tax refund if it was withheld while you were exempt.
Retirees living abroad. The COLA applies to every Social Security beneficiary, including those whose benefits are deposited in another country, as long as payments to that country are allowed. Former H-1B workers who earned 40 credits and returned home keep their eligibility; our explainers on U.S. Social Security for retirees in India and preserving benefits after leaving the U.S. cover the rules, including tax treaty treatment.
Green card holders on SSI. SSI eligibility for lawful permanent residents is far narrower than for citizens and often depends on work history and date of entry. Those who qualify receive the same COLA as citizens. Our explainer on whether green card holders can get SSI walks through the conditions.
What to Do Before and After October 14
- Do not budget the full raise yet. Wait for the November Part B announcement; the premium increase comes out of the COLA first.
- Check your notice in December. SSA posts each person’s new benefit amount in the Message Center of a my Social Security account and mails paper notices to those who have not opted out.
- Review tax withholding. A higher benefit can push more of it into taxable income. Use Form W-4V to change voluntary federal withholding on benefits, and see our guide to how much of your Social Security is taxable.
- If you work before full retirement age, recheck the earnings test. The 2026 limit is $24,480; the 2027 figure is published October 14. Our guide for working retirees explains how withheld benefits are paid back later.
- If you earn near the wage base, plan for higher 2027 withholding. Payroll systems update the cap in January.
This article will be updated with the official 2027 COLA, taxable maximum and earnings-test limits when SSA publishes them on October 14, 2026, and with the Part B premium when CMS announces it.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the 2027 Social Security COLA be announced?
The Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 COLA on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. SSA needs the September CPI-W to complete the third-quarter average the formula requires.
How much will Social Security increase in 2027?
Forecasts range from 3.3% to 3.6%. AARP and Kiplinger project 3.6%, The Senior Citizens League and analyst Mary Johnson project 3.5%. Using July and August CPI-W of 327.104 and 328.481, a September reading unchanged from August would produce a 3.4% COLA.
When will the 2027 COLA show up in my check?
The COLA applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027. Most beneficiaries are paid on January 13, 20 or 27, 2027, depending on birth date. SSI recipients and people paid on the 3rd receive their first higher payment on December 31, 2026.
How is the Social Security COLA calculated?
SSA averages the CPI-W for July, August and September and compares it with the third-quarter average from the last year a COLA took effect. For 2027 that base is 317.265, from 2025. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth, becomes the COLA.
How much will the average Social Security check increase in 2027?
The average retired worker received about $2,087.52 in August 2026. A 3.5% COLA would raise that by about $73 to roughly $2,160 a month, while 3.6% would add about $75. Medicare Part B premium increases are deducted from that raise.
What will the Medicare Part B premium be in 2027?
It has not been announced. The 2026 standard premium is $202.90, and the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects $209.50 for 2027, with a $292 deductible. CMS usually publishes the final 2027 premium in November.
What is the Social Security wage base for 2027?
SSA publishes it with the COLA on October 14, 2026. The 2026 taxable maximum is $184,500, for a maximum employee tax of $11,439. The Social Security Trustees project about $190,200 for 2027, which would put the maximum employee tax near $11,792.
Do Social Security recipients living abroad get the COLA?
Yes. The COLA applies to every Social Security beneficiary, including those whose payments go to another country, as long as U.S. rules allow payments there. Former H-1B workers who earned 40 credits and returned home receive the same percentage increase.
