Pollster Warns H-1B Could Be Brought to Its Knees by Backlogs

Washington has put the H-1B program back at the center of the immigration debate after President Trump signed an executive order on September 19, 2025 that adds a new $100,000 fee to many first-time H-1B filings starting September 21, 2025. A U.S. pollster, reacting to the move and to widening delays, warned that “H-1B can be brought to its knees” and called the visa system “fragile” in a way that employers and workers can feel in real time. The order hits companies that file petitions for workers entering the United States 🇺🇸 without a prior valid H-1B, while leaving extensions and several other case types untouched.

For businesses planning spring hiring, the timing is jarring: the fee comes into effect before many backlogs have cleared, creating immediate uncertainty for recruiters and hiring managers.

Who the fee affects and what it exempts

The White House order states the fee applies only to petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025 for workers who do not already hold a valid H-1B visa.

• Applies to: First-time H-1B petitions for overseas hires (filed on/after Sept 21, 2025).
• Does not apply to: Extensions, amendments, or changes of status such as an F-1 student moving to H-1B.

This carveout helps workers already in the U.S., but it offers little relief to firms recruiting overseas talent or to graduates outside the cap-gap window. Immigration lawyers note that a six-figure add-on suddenly changes budget meetings, especially for smaller tech and engineering firms that planned staffing around standard filing costs and attorney fees. One hiring manager said the fee could freeze new offers while the firm evaluates alternative visa options.

“H-1B can be brought to its knees” — a warning that employers and workers say they can feel in real time.

Processing delays and the Department of Labor backlog

Delays at the Department of Labor (DOL) are compounding the shock because many H-1B cases cannot move until a prevailing wage determination is issued.

Department data cited in the source show requests in the processing queue with:
– OEWS receipt date: May 2025
– Non-OEWS receipt date: March 2025

Examples of remaining requests by month (the agency still had):
– March: 5
– April: 20
– May: 152
– June: 347
– July: 236
– August: 345

Those figures represent slices of a larger backlog, but they help explain why the pollster’s warning is gaining traction among employers facing start-date deadlines. When wage decisions arrive late:

• Companies may miss filing windows.
• Workers can lose housing plans, school seats, and travel bookings.

Consular changes and online presence review

Pressure is also building at consulates. A new rule on online presence review begins December 15, 2025 for H-1B and H-4 applicants, including renewals.

• Applicants must set social media profiles to “public” for advanced screening.
• Lawyers expect this will slow interview scheduling and increase follow-up questions.

For families traveling over winter holidays, delays are tangible: a delayed visa stamp can leave a worker stranded abroad and separate children from school routines. Companies are warning staff to:

• Plan for longer stays outside the country, or
• Avoid travel if their case is on a tight timeline.

Each extra review reinforces the program’s fragile reputation.

DHS January 17, 2025 rule — modernization mixed with tougher controls

Scrutiny widened after the Department of Homeland Security’s January 17, 2025 final rule, described as a modernization package with tougher fraud controls. Key elements included:

• Codifying “deference” for extensions — officers should generally respect earlier approvals if facts haven’t changed.
• Adding protections tied to the F-1 cap-gap period that lets some students keep working while waiting for an H-1B start date.
• Allowing concurrent employment for some entrepreneurs.

However, the rule also introduced:

• Mandatory attestations
• The prospect of site visits

Those steps aim to catch abuse but can trigger more evidence requests and longer waits for routine cases. Employers say the goal is fair, yet the paperwork load adds to a fragile system.

White House rationale and cited examples

The White House frames the fee and tougher review as responses to alleged vulnerabilities in the H-1B program, pointing to examples where approvals coincided with U.S. job cuts:

• A firm approved for 5,000+ H-1B workers (FY 2025) reportedly laid off 15,000+ Americans around the same time.
• Another company received 1,700 approvals and cut 2,400 jobs in Oregon (July 2025).
• A third reduced its U.S. workforce by 27,000 since 2022 while securing 25,000+ H-1Bs.

Studies cited in the same context found 36% wage discounts for entry-level H-1B workers compared with U.S. workers. Those statistics have fueled political anger and calls to reprice the visa sharply.

Business reaction and economic consequences

Business groups counter that the program was built for specialty occupations and that most employers follow wage rules, even if a few high-volume contractors did not. Still, critics call the $100,000 fee a blunt tool.

Analysis by VisaVerge.com highlighted the combined effect of:

• High costs
• Longer government queues
• Heavier screening

These pressures can push companies to shift projects abroad or delay product launches. For workers, the uncertainty is personal:

• A job offer that once felt secure can become conditional if a budget line suddenly has six extra figures.
• Recruiters report candidates asking whether offers will survive or whether remote work is possible.

Practical choices for employers and workers

Employers weighing a petition now face several options:

1. Absorb the fee and proceed with the H-1B filing.
2. Rework job duties to fit other visa categories.
3. Postpone hiring until rules or backlogs change.

Workers and applicants face parallel risks: delays can cost leases, semesters, or promotions, and can transform routine international trips into potential separations.

Context: earlier reforms and the larger backlog

The latest pressures sit on top of earlier reforms, including a fairer H-1B lottery that took effect in March 2024 and was incorporated into the January 2025 DHS rule. That change aimed to curb multiple registrations but did not fix the broader mismatch between demand and the annual cap that drives springtime anxiety.

Additional context:

• Visa Bulletin updates provide no H-1B-specific green card relief, keeping many workers tied to employers longer than expected.
• When a worker’s long-term plan depends on timely filings, a backlog of “hundreds” of stalled wage decisions can act like a single weak link that snaps.

That’s why both critics and supporters increasingly call the program fragile, not fixed.

Limits of the sourcing and the plain mechanics

Because the source material does not identify the pollster, a named DHS official, or an affected worker willing to speak on the record, it is difficult to separate how much alarm is political from how much reflects lived experience. Still, the mechanics are clear:

• A first-time overseas hire now comes with a $100,000 fee.
• Wage paperwork is stuck for months in some queues.
• Consulates are preparing deeper online checks.

For employers, each step increases the chance a start date slips and a contract is lost. For workers, each step raises the odds that a trip to see parents becomes an unplanned separation. In a system described as fragile, time has become the most expensive cost for many families.

Official guidance

USCIS maintains public guidance on H-1B eligibility and filing on its H-1B page: USCIS. That baseline advice remains available but does not resolve the newest pinch points: prevailing wage delays, consular screening, and the price shock for first-time hires abroad.