More Americans Seeking Refuge in Canada: 2025 Claims Rise Noted

(CANADA) More Americans are seeking refugee status in Canada in 2025 than in any full year since 2019, with official data showing 245 U.S. refugee claims filed from January through June. That figure already surpasses the 204 claims filed in all of 2024.

The rise is small in the broader system—Canada has received about 55,000 total refugee claims so far this year, making U.S. cases roughly 0.4% of the total—but it marks a clear uptick after several quieter years.

Who is filing and why

Immigration lawyers in multiple provinces report that a growing share of these U.S. refugee claims involve transgender Americans. They point to a wave of U.S. state restrictions on:

• Gender‑affirming care
• Military service
• Bathroom access
• Participation in sports

as reasons some people now look north.

The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB) has recently added more country‑conditions documentation about treatment of LGBTQ people in the United States, including reports by civil society groups. That step signals closer review of claims from this community, even as acceptance remains difficult.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security officials have said publicly that Americans applying for refugee status in Canada could open more space for people “facing actual fear and persecution” elsewhere. In practice, however, Canada still presumes the United States is a safe country, and that presumption shapes how adjudicators weigh these cases.

Rising U.S. claims in 2025 — key figures

The 2025 numbers for U.S. nationals stand out for two reasons: they exceed last year’s total halfway through the year, and they represent the highest volume since 2019.

Key figures so far this year:
– 245 U.S. refugee claims (Jan–June 2025) — already above 2024’s full‑year total of 204
– Roughly 55,000 total refugee claims in Canada in the first half of 2025
– U.S. claims account for about 0.4% of the total
– Historical acceptance rates for Americans remain low

To succeed, an American claimant must convince the IRB that nowhere in the U.S. is safe for them—a high legal bar given Canada’s view that the U.S. is generally safe for most people.

How claims are processed and privacy measures

• The IRB processes claims at the Refugee Protection Division.
• For public reporting, the agency applies small‑value suppression to protect privacy in very low‑volume categories. This practice can slightly obscure granular breakdowns while preserving confidentiality.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the shift among U.S. claimants is modest in the national picture but meaningful for people seeking safety who see policy trends at home as a rising threat.

The Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA)

The STCA limits who can make claims at the land border. It requires most asylum seekers who arrive from the United States to seek protection in the first safe country they enter.

• People who try to claim at regular land ports of entry from the U.S. are usually returned, unless they fit an exception (for example, having a close family member in Canada).
• The STCA continues to shape the flow and timing of U.S. refugee claims, pushing many would‑be claimants to file inland if they are already inside Canada.

Policy constraints and impact on applicants

A tighter policy climate is forming around asylum and refugee admissions.

Immigration Levels Plan 2025–2027

• The federal plan, released in October 2024, reduced targets for refugees and protected persons.
• The 2025 target is 68,350 for refugees and protected persons (down from earlier planning).
• The “Protected Persons and Dependents Abroad” category was cut by 31%, from 29,000 to 20,000.
• The backlog in that stream exceeds 100,000 active applications.

Advocacy groups warn that fewer spots and large backlogs will leave many waiting longer for permanent status even after they receive protection.

Private sponsorship pause

• Intake to some private sponsorship routes—Group of Five and Community Sponsor streams—is paused until December 31, 2025.
• That limits alternatives for people who might otherwise pursue resettlement through private sponsors.
• For Americans with inland claims in Canada, the pause does not block the asylum process, but it narrows options for relatives or community‑based sponsorship.

Proposed legislation: Bill C‑2

• Bill C‑2 had its first reading on June 3, 2025.
• If passed, it would restrict asylum eligibility for certain people, particularly those who:
  1. Entered Canada after June 24, 2020 and waited more than one year to make an asylum claim; and
  2. Crossed into Canada along the U.S. land border outside a port of entry and applied after 14 days.
• The bill would also give the government wider powers to cancel or suspend immigration documents.

• If enacted, these measures could affect a subset of U.S. refugee claims, especially those filed long after entry or linked to irregular crossings.

The legal test for U.S. claimants

The legal test for U.S. claimants remains exacting:

• Decision‑makers assess whether internal relocation within the U.S. could be a safe option.
• They review up‑to‑date country information; the IRB’s expanded documentation on U.S. treatment of LGBTQ people may be particularly relevant for transgender claimants.
• Because Canada’s baseline view is that the U.S. is a safe country, approvals are likely to stay limited, even when state laws create real harms for some people.

Critical takeaway: Claimants must present clear, detailed evidence showing why protection is not available anywhere in the United States. Internal relocation often becomes the central question.

Human and operational consequences

Policy adjustments carry significant human costs:

• Reduced admissions targets mean protected persons and their families may wait longer to move from temporary protection to permanent residence.
• Backlogs in the “Dependents Abroad” stream delay family reunification for those already found to be in need of protection.
• The intake pause for private sponsors closes doors sponsors often use to bring at‑risk relatives or community members.
• The Canadian Council for Refugees called the 2025 reductions a “shameful abdication of responsibility”, warning that only one in five refugees and family members may get permanent status this year. The group has urged use of temporary resident permits to help reunite families while the backlog is addressed.

Operational responses:
– The IRB and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada are investing in technology and other reforms to improve processing times.
– Despite investments, backlogs remain a major challenge in 2025, translating to longer waits for housing, health care, work authorization, and schooling for claimants.

Practical guidance for potential claimants

Access points and timing matter:

• The STCA still governs asylum at the border; exceptions are limited.
• Proposed Bill C‑2 timing rules could further narrow eligibility if adopted.
• For those already inside Canada, inland claims proceed through regular channels.
• Claimants should expect close review of evidence about personal risk and whether protection is available somewhere else in the U.S.

Where to find official guidance:
– The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada posts procedures, policy updates, and public decisions at https://irb-cisr.gc.ca. People consult this site to see how the Refugee Protection Division handles evidence and credibility, and to track updates on country documentation that may be cited in hearings.

Summary: three themes for mid‑2025

• The numbers are up but still small: 245 U.S. refugee claims in the first half of the year (a post‑2019 high), yet only 0.4% of all claims.
• The rules are tight and may get tighter: the STCA remains in force, and Bill C‑2 could limit eligibility for late filers and some irregular entrants.
• The path to permanence is longer: the 2025 target of 68,350, a 31% cut in the “Dependents Abroad” stream to 20,000, a backlog above 100,000, and the private sponsorship pause to December 31, 2025 all point to extended timelines.

For now, most Americans who seek protection in Canada will face a steep climb. Success depends on presenting detailed, convincing evidence and showing why protection is not available anywhere in the United States. Even with the IRB’s broader country documentation on LGBTQ issues, the safety presumption for the U.S. remains a major hurdle.

VisaVerge.com reports that the combined effect of a tougher intake posture, reduced targets, and pending legislation could keep approval rates for U.S. claimants low through 2025, even as applications rise.

Families, employers, and community groups watching these trends should plan for longer waits and uncertain timelines. With the year half over and Bill C‑2 still before Parliament, the policy picture may shift again before 2025 closes—adding one more layer of caution for anyone weighing a claim or a sponsorship path.