(UNITED STATES) — Americans left the United States in numbers large enough to help tip the country into negative net migration as of February 28, 2026, a reversal that officials and researchers said has not happened since the Great Depression.
The shift has drawn attention because it combines two forces moving in the same direction: a tougher enforcement posture by the Department of Homeland Security and a rising flow of U.S. citizens relocating abroad.
Net migration measures inflows minus outflows. When the figure turns negative, more people leave the country than arrive over the same period.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem cast the higher level of departures as an enforcement outcome and a fiscal gain for taxpayers in public remarks this month and earlier in the administration’s term.
“Over the last 13 months, nearly 3 million illegal aliens have left the U.S. because of the Trump Administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration, including an estimated 2.2 million self-deportations and more than 713,000 deportations. . The American people have been put first again,” Noem said on February 25, 2026, in a DHS press release.
A separate DHS statement from January 20, 2026, also attributed departures to “the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration” and included a taxpayer savings claim.
“In President Trump’s first year back in office, nearly 3 million illegal aliens have left the U.S. because of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration. Meanwhile, we have saved taxpayers more than $13.2 billion here at DHS,” Noem said.
Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney S. Scott made similar arguments about enforcement outcomes in remarks dated February 4, 2026, pointing to historically low crossings and interior releases.
“Our agents and officers are delivering unprecedented results, with border crossings and apprehensions at levels not seen in CBP history. . January 2026 marked the ninth month in a row that Border Patrol has released ZERO illegal aliens into the interior of the country,” Scott said.
Independent estimates and official statistical series have also fueled the debate over what, exactly, is driving the overall reversal, and how long it might last.
The Brookings Institution reported that net migration in 2025 ranged between negative 10,000 and negative 295,000. Brookings cited methodological differences, lags in data, and revisions as reasons estimates can vary.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s “Vintage 2025” estimates showed net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024 and fell to 1.3 million in 2025, with projections falling to 321,000 in 2026.
A separate stream of figures has focused on Americans who live outside the United States, and on administrative steps some take when they decide to cut formal ties.
Media reports, including The Wall Street Journal and The Independent, used the term “The ‘Donald Dash’” for U.S. citizens moving overseas. Those reports placed the number of Americans living abroad at an estimated 4 to 9 million, a range reflecting differences in how groups count citizens overseas.
Requests to renounce U.S. citizenship jumped 48% in 2024 and rose further in 2025, the data said, contributing to a month-long backlog at the State Department as of February 2026.
Another data point in the same political moment came from immigration policy guidance. A December 2025 USCIS guidance set a goal to pursue 100–200 denaturalization cases per month in fiscal year 2026.
The guidance described denaturalization as targeting naturalized citizens for alleged fraud or other grounds, a process that proceeds case by case and through established legal procedures.
Economists and demographers treat a turn to negative net migration as a notable break from recent U.S. patterns because it can shape labor force growth and, through that channel, consumer spending and output.
Brookings economists warned that an “exodus” could lead to weaker employment growth, lower GDP, and reduced consumer spending due to a shrinking labor force.
Researchers also pointed to a historical parallel: the last time more people left the United States than entered was during the Great Depression in 1935, a marker frequently used to show how unusual a net outflow is in modern U.S. history.
The current reversal has played out alongside visible signs of movement by American families and professionals, as well as tightening pathways for immigrants and refugees.
Americans have increasingly moved to countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Mexico, and Germany, the data said, citing lower costs of living, improved safety, and an escape from political polarization among the stated reasons.
Portugal has drawn particular attention. In Portugal alone, the American resident population has surged more than 500% since the pandemic, a change that has become part of the broader narrative of outward movement.
At the same time, immigration advocates and analysts have watched the pipeline for new arrivals narrow under policy changes and enforcement messaging.
The Trump administration has nearly suspended the refugee program, with admissions estimated to drop to 1,200–7,500 in 2026 from 105,000 in 2024.
Officials also terminated Temporary Protected Status for Yemen, effective February 2026, a change that can compress timelines for people who relied on TPS to remain and work in the United States.
Departures by undocumented immigrants have become part of the political argument as well, especially when they occur outside formal removal proceedings.
Millions of undocumented individuals have reportedly chosen to leave the United States voluntarily to avoid the “stormy optics” of mass raids and aggressive interior enforcement, the reports said, a pattern frequently described as “self-deportation.”
Noem and other officials have emphasized that framing, tying departures to enforcement and budget outcomes rather than to broader demographic cycles.
Scott’s statement also pressed a border-focused version of the same argument, highlighting “unprecedented results” and asserting that releases into the interior fell to zero for a sustained period.
The widening set of metrics has created a dispute over interpretation as much as over the raw numbers, with agency statements describing enforcement success while research institutions and federal statistical series present ranges and projections subject to revision.
Some measures capture migration directly, such as Brookings’ net migration range for 2025 and the Census Bureau’s net international migration series.
Other measures capture behavior linked to longer-term relocation decisions, such as renunciation requests and estimates of the number of U.S. citizens living abroad.
Still others reflect policy posture more than population flows, such as the USCIS denaturalization target of 100–200 cases per month in fiscal year 2026 and DHS claims about departures and cost savings.
The combination has drawn attention because it touches both political messaging and lived decisions, from families leaving for Portugal or Mexico to immigrants reassessing whether they can remain lawfully, apply for protection, or return home.
Officials and researchers cited a set of primary sources for the figures and claims circulating in the debate, including DHS Newsroom releases and other items posted at the DHS Newsroom, updates at USCIS News, expatriation-related notices used for trend monitoring at the Federal Register (Expatriation Notices), and migration estimates published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Over the last 13 months, nearly 3 million illegal aliens have left the U.S. because of the Trump Administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration,” Noem said, “. The American people have been put first again.”
Kristi Noem Blames Department of Homeland Security as Negative Net Migration Grows
The U.S. is experiencing negative net migration for the first time in nearly a century. Driven by aggressive immigration enforcement and a rise in citizens moving abroad for lower costs or political reasons, the shift is highly polarizing. While the government highlights fiscal gains and security, experts caution that a declining population could trigger significant economic headwinds, including labor shortages and lower GDP growth.
