JPMorgan Warns: $100,000 H-1B Fee Could Slash Approvals by 5,500

(UNITED STATES) A sweeping executive order signed by President Trump on September 19, 2025 imposes a new $100,000 fee on most new H-1B visa petitions, a move JPMorgan economists say could cut approvals by as many as 5,500 per month. The fee took effect at 12:01 AM ET on September 21, 2025 and applies for 12 months unless extended.

The policy targets petitions for workers outside the country at the time of filing—often called “consular petitions”—and excludes cases filed before the effective date, renewals and extensions, currently approved petitions, and individuals who already hold valid H-1B status. Employers, universities, and immigration advocates across the United States 🇺🇸 are bracing for a sharp drop in approvals and fresh delays as agencies prepare to enforce the new charge.

Purpose, Scope, and Early Reaction

The order’s timing and size mark an unusual shock to the employment-based immigration system. By tilting the cost burden toward consular petitions, the administration aims to discourage employers from seeking new talent abroad this year.

• JPMorgan’s analysis, using fiscal 2024 filing patterns, estimates:
  • Of 141,000 new employment petitions, around 65,000 were consular filings and thus most exposed to the fee.
  • Economists project a monthly shortfall of 5,500 approvals as firms abandon petitions that suddenly carry six-figure government fees.
• VisaVerge.com reports early employer reactions ranging from confusion to outright pause orders on international hiring plans pending further agency instructions.

The government frames the fee as a way to prioritize U.S. workers in a tight labor market. Supporters contend higher costs will push employers to recruit and train domestic talent. Yet the abrupt change and limited operational guidance have stirred widespread anxiety.

Agency Guidance and Exemptions: What’s Known and Unknown

As of September 25, 2025, DHS, USCIS, CBP, and the State Department have issued preliminary memos and FAQs. Many operational questions remain unsettled:

• Unclear points include:
  • How the fee will be processed and accepted
  • What documents will be required at filing
  • Procedures for seeking waivers or exemptions
• The order includes a narrow route for case-by-case exemptions for roles deemed in the national interest, but:
  • Officials have not released clear criteria or timelines for that process

Important: The limited guidance and lack of clear exemption standards increase the risk that employers will delay or avoid filings until processes are defined.

Potential Economic and Educational Impacts

Industry leaders warn the effects could extend beyond this H-1B season:

• JPMorgan cautions a drop in approvals may reduce the number of foreign students who plan to study and work in the U.S., potentially hurting graduate enrollment in fields like engineering, computer science, and research.
• Employers in advanced tech and research fields—already facing shortages—may shift projects or hiring offshore, delaying product launches and raising labor costs.
• Small and mid-sized companies, unable to absorb six-figure fees, may postpone growth or move work to other countries.

Impact by geography and sector

• Indian professionals: Recent years saw roughly 70% of H-1B visas go to Indian nationals, with about two-thirds in computer-related occupations. Many of these hires begin abroad and are therefore highly exposed to the fee.
• Universities: International students may favor programs and countries with clearer post-graduation paths (e.g., Canada, U.K.), affecting U.S. graduate enrollments.
• Staffing and consulting firms: Heavy users of H-1B pathways may redirect work to delivery centers abroad or explore third-country placements.

Employer Operational Concerns

Employers cite multiple practical issues that could disrupt filings and hiring:

• Lack of clarity on payment steps and proof submission raises fears of petitions being rejected on technical grounds.
• Past USCIS transitions sometimes included grace periods; this order explicitly ties the fee to petitions filed on or after the effective time and date, leaving limited transition room.
• Companies that made offers to overseas candidates must decide whether to:
  • Shoulder $100,000 per petition
  • Restructure roles
  • Move projects outside the U.S. for the year

HR, finance, and legal teams are already creating internal checklists and sign-off procedures to track each payment by petition, beneficiary, and filing date.

National Interest Exemption: A Hinge Point

Some hope the national interest exemption will protect urgent public-priority hires (e.g., critical infrastructure, health care, national security). However:

• Criteria and processing steps remain unclear.
• Without guardrails and timelines, companies are reluctant to base hiring plans on this uncertain relief.

Agency and Administrative Workflows

Agencies face significant administrative tasks to implement the fee effectively:

• Update instructions, workflows, and payment systems to collect and tie the fee to affected petition types
• Establish processes for:
  • National interest exemption requests
  • Evidence evaluation
  • Timely responses
• The opacity of rules could result in fewer filings or overly cautious submissions

Legal and Policy Responses

Business groups and immigration advocates are considering legal action, though no formal court orders have blocked the fee. Observations include:

• The 12-month duration (subject to extension) may reduce appetite for long litigation but increase urgency for interim relief.
• Stakeholders may push for:
  • Narrower fee coverage
  • Clearer exemption standards
  • Time-sensitive exceptions for science and national security hires
• Corporate government affairs may pursue legislative or oversight pressure for clarity

Employer Scenarios and Contingency Planning

Employers with global workforces are preparing varied responses:

• Identify roles that can be moved to nearshore/offshore hubs
• Split projects so a limited number of critical staff apply for H-1Bs while others support from abroad
• Explore alternative entry categories for candidates already in the U.S., though the order centers on beneficiaries abroad

CFOs and general counsels are modeling cost implications, compliance risks, and sequencing of critical hires. Some firms are testing “hub-and-spoke” models to keep core teams in the U.S. with supporting squads offshore.

Candidate and Family Consequences

The personal stakes for candidates and families are significant:

• Offers accepted by overseas candidates (e.g., a computer systems analyst in Hyderabad) may now face pauses, delays, or redirection.
• Researchers and families may see labs shift funding or move start dates, creating missed opportunities and uncertain life plans.

Fee Carve-Outs and What Continues Unaffected

The order explicitly does not apply to:

• Petitions filed before September 21, 2025
• Currently approved petitions
• H-1B renewals and extensions
• Individuals already holding valid H-1B visas

This means existing staff and renewals can continue without the new charge, but pipelines bringing new hires from abroad will be most affected.

Practical Steps for Employers and Universities

Employers planning to file should consider the following actions:

1. Work with experienced counsel to map timelines and confirm coverage by the fee.
2. Budget the $100,000 fee and watch for updates on acceptable payment methods.
3. Build internal sign-offs and payment tracking systems tied to each petition and beneficiary.
4. Coordinate HR, finance, and legal to log payment timings and filing dates to avoid costly timing mistakes.
5. Monitor agency updates closely and prepare to show proof of payment at submission.

Universities and career centers should:

• Encourage early conversations between students and employers on sponsorship plans and timelines
• Review how OPT and post-completion plans may be affected
• Consider scholarship or research funding mechanisms to retain top talent if start dates shift

Implementation Snapshot

Short- and Medium-Term Outlook

• If the 5,500-per-month projection holds across 12 months, a significant share of planned hires and contract placements will be rerouted or delayed.
• Outcomes to watch:
  • Whether domestic hiring meaningfully increases
  • Whether exemptions prove practical and timely
  • Whether agencies publish clear and prompt guidance
  • Legal challenges or legislative responses that narrow or pause the fee

If employers shift work offshore rather than increase domestic hiring, the administration’s stated objective may not be realized. Conversely, clear exemptions and predictable guidance could soften impacts for critical projects.

Where to Monitor Official Updates

USCIS is the main portal for authoritative updates on H-1B rules and definitions. For official guidance and subsequent instructions, see the USCIS H-1B page:

• USCIS H-1B page

Final Takeaway

The H-1B system has entered a new, more expensive phase for consular petitions. JPMorgan’s headline estimate—5,500 fewer approvals each month—illustrates the scale of a possible year-long reset. Whether this shift is temporary or long-lasting will depend on future policy steps, legal outcomes, agency guidance, and how employers adapt in the months ahead.