(U.S.) DHS Secretary Kristi Noem says the United States has seen a steep drop in its undocumented population this year. On August 14, 2025, she announced a decline of about 1.6 million undocumented immigrants during her first 200 days, crediting aggressive enforcement and a push for voluntary departures. Independent researchers, including demographers who study long-term trends, say the data does not yet support that headline number. They agree the population may be shrinking in 2025, but they caution that reliable counts are months away and current estimates have clear limits.
The announcement marks a sharp turn in immigration policy during President Trump’s second term. It follows a series of executive actions that reversed many of President Biden’s programs and added new penalties. The southern border has been restricted for most entrants, asylum access has narrowed, and large-scale enforcement has resumed inside the country. Noem’s claim hinges on both removals and self-departures, aided by a public campaign and financial incentives to leave.
Government claim and enforcement shift
Noem linked the reported decline to stepped-up deportations and a new self-deportation program that offers $1,000 and a free flight to people who agree to depart. The CBP One app used to book asylum appointments is gone; in its place, the “CBP Home App” now supports voluntary departure as part of Operation Homecoming.
DHS cited internal numbers from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and pointed to analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that supports tighter immigration controls. But the department did not break out how many people left on their own versus how many were deported.
Key figures the administration has referenced:
– About 150,000 people deported in the first six months of President Trump’s second term.
– About 13,000 self-deported in that same period.
– New fines reportedly up to $5,000 for unlawful crossings, including for some asylum seekers.
– Rollbacks to Temporary Protected Status and other humanitarian programs that could put hundreds of thousands at risk of removal.
– Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has resumed larger raids, including in locations previously restricted (e.g., schools and hospitals).
Supporters of the new approach frame these steps as a reset after a surge during the previous administration. For context, Pew Research Center estimates the unauthorized population grew by 3.5 million from 2021 to 2023, reaching about 14 million in 2023. Proponents say tougher rules and incentives to leave are needed to reverse that growth and deter future arrivals.
Data limits and what researchers can confirm
Despite the attention around the 1.6 million figure, independent verification is not possible yet. The most reliable population estimates come from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), which lags by many months; the most recent ACS data available is from 2023.
Other data sources and their limits:
– Current Population Survey (CPS): Offers faster signals but has a smaller sample and is not designed to precisely measure the undocumented population.
– Administrative data: Can show partial trends but may exaggerate early shifts when based on small samples or incomplete coverage.
Demographers and major research organizations warn that early shifts can appear larger than they are when inferred from partial data. Pew’s early look at 2024–2025 patterns suggests the number of people here without legal status may have started to fall this year, but the size, timing, and causes of any decline remain uncertain.
Researchers emphasize multiple factors could be driving changes:
– Removals (deportations)
– Voluntary departures (self-deportations)
– Fewer new arrivals
– More people obtaining lawful status
– Temporary or seasonal departures
Because these forces can operate simultaneously, experts caution against treating a single headline number as definitive. VisaVerge.com notes that reliable confirmation will depend on Census-based methods that won’t be available until later in the year.
Methodology, transparency, and debate
Policy debates add another layer of complexity. DHS referenced the Center for Immigration Studies in promoting the claim, but many academics view CIS’s CPS-based estimates as less reliable for measuring rapid change.
Critical gaps in the administration’s presentation:
– No public, detailed methodology accompanying the 1.6 million claim.
– No breakdown of voluntary departures versus deportations.
– Lack of data needed to assess error margins or compare with past trends.
Without such details, independent researchers cannot fully evaluate or reproduce the government’s claim.
“Independent verification is not yet possible.”
Researchers say the number may be falling, but reliable confirmation requires more complete survey and administrative data.
On-the-ground impacts and community response
Communities across the country are already feeling the effects of stepped-up enforcement.
Reported consequences include:
– Increased fear, family separations, and people avoiding school, work, and medical care.
– Business group warnings—especially in agriculture and service sectors—about intensifying labor shortages as workers leave jobs, relocate, or avoid public spaces.
– Shifts in public opinion: early 2025 showed support for stronger rules, but by April polling indicated growing concern that removals had gone “too far.”
Practical changes visible right now:
– The end of the CBP One app removed a pathway many asylum seekers used to request entry appointments.
– The new CBP Home App centers on self-departure: users can register, have travel arranged, and claim the $1,000 incentive.
– Legal challenges to several executive actions are progressing in federal courts; some provisions have been temporarily blocked.
– The environment is fluid, with rules and enforcement evolving week to week.
For families and individuals, the uncertainty is immediate:
– Parents fear arrests during school runs.
– Workers worry about workplace raids.
– People with pending humanitarian cases are unsure whether protections will hold.
– Lawyers report increased calls about preparing safety plans, handling ICE encounters, and assessing eligibility for relief.
What to watch next
Independent researchers say the broader numbers picture will take time to settle. Even in ordinary years, measuring the undocumented population is slow and complex; in a year of major policy swings, the lag grows.
Three developments to monitor:
1. Court rulings that could limit or halt parts of the enforcement program.
2. Any official DHS release of detailed methodology and underlying data.
3. Updated estimates from trusted research groups later in 2025 and into early 2026.
Each will shape how analysts judge the size and causes of this year’s changes.
Where to get official information
People seeking official information about immigration enforcement or programs can check the Department of Homeland Security’s website at https://www.dhs.gov. DHS is the single authority that can confirm current policies, filing steps, and official warnings about scams.
Bottom line
Noem’s statement has set off a political fight over what counts as success: a headline drop claimed now, or a verified decline confirmed later.
- The administration says it has driven down the undocumented population quickly.
- Researchers say the population may be falling, but independent verification is not yet possible.
The true scale — and the human cost — will come into focus only with time and fuller data.
This Article in a Nutshell
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem announced a 1.6 million drop in undocumented residents, citing deportations and $1,000 exits. Researchers warn ACS data lag to 2023 and say independent verification must await later 2025 Census methods and updated estimates before confirming the claimed decline.
