(INDIA) An American education-technology founder’s claim that the H-1B system is “rigged” has reignited a long-running fight over how the United States 🇺🇸 fills high-skilled jobs and who benefits most from its flagship work visa. Hany Girgis, citing Bloomberg data, says 73.7% of H-1B visa approvals from 2020 to 2023 went to Indian nationals—about 230,000 approvals—far outpacing China at roughly 16% and Canada 🇨🇦 at around 3%. Newer figures echo the same pattern: as of late 2024, Indians received about 71% of H-1B approvals, keeping India at the center of the program’s talent flow and the policy storm around it.
The debate now hinges on whether this concentration reflects employer demand and a deep pool of English-speaking STEM talent from India, or a structural “pipeline issue” that rewards volume filers and lower wages at the expense of U.S. graduates.
The claim and the counterarguments
Girgis argues the system is tilted toward high-volume outsourcing firms that file thousands of H-1B visas, giving them a major edge in the lottery and in petition processing. In a post on X, he described the pipeline as tuned for “cheap, compliant labor,” claiming many H-1B workers in top tech roles are paid less than peers in similar U.S.-based positions. He questions the idea that the H-1B program always brings the “best and brightest” when “there’s a discount.” Supporters of his view say the share—73.7% in recent years—shows a pipeline issue rather than a pure skill shortage.
Critics counter that India produces a vast number of skilled, English-speaking graduates in computer science and engineering, so the high share is expected. They ask whether the focus should be on recipients or on companies that design hiring and pay practices.
Others want systemic fixes:
- Stronger wage rules
- Stricter oversight of multiple registrations
- Heavier investment in training U.S. students
According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, this split has hardened as more data show the same pattern, keeping employers, recent U.S. graduates, and Indian applicants on edge.
What the numbers show and why they matter
The figures at the center of this argument are stark:
- 73.7% of approvals (2020–2023) went to Indian nationals, per Girgis’ citation.
- ~71% is the approximate Indian share reported as of late 2024.
While fiscal-year breakdowns vary, the broad pattern holds: Indian-born professionals account for a large majority of H-1B approvals, especially in tech. That repeated outcome has triggered questions about:
- Lottery dynamics
- Filing strategies by high-volume firms
- Wage-setting across the sector
The pipeline vs. supply explanation
Critics of the current system emphasize scale as the key issue. Large outsourcing firms:
- File mass registrations for a wide range of roles.
- Potentially raise odds of selection in the lottery through volume.
- Tend to keep wages within tight bands, which can press down market wages.
Consequences for U.S. graduates and smaller employers:
- Entry-level positions may carry lower pay expectations.
- Fewer training opportunities for new graduates.
- Higher hiring bars that push U.S. grads out of contention.
Industry groups and many employers respond that the H-1B market mirrors global supply: India has millions of trained, English-speaking STEM graduates and large technical services sectors. They argue the program:
- Keeps critical projects staffed in the U.S.
- Helps firms grow domestically rather than sending work abroad
- Is governed by wage protections: employers must pay the higher of the actual wage or the prevailing local wage listed in the Labor Condition Application (LCA)
Policy stakes and possible changes
Reform ideas fall into several categories, each with trade-offs:
- Wage-based selection: Rank registrations by promised salary to prioritize higher-paid roles and reduce wage undercutting.
- Country caps: Spread visas more evenly across nationalities, but risk disrupting recruiting models and diplomacy.
- Anti-fraud measures: Target duplicate or collusive registrations; officials have already increased checks.
- Targeted tracks: Separate streams for AI, critical infrastructure, or national-security fields to secure specialized talent.
How the H-1B cap and lottery work
Each spring, employers submit registrations for the annual cap:
- 65,000 visas under the regular cap
- 20,000 additional slots reserved for holders of advanced U.S. degrees
When demand exceeds supply, a lottery determines who may file full petitions. High-volume filers say their scale is a feature—they can onboard workers quickly. Smaller firms say that volume crowds out niche, high-impact roles. Policymakers must balance protecting domestic workers and wages while keeping U.S. companies competitive.
The step-by-step H-1B process
For applicants and employers, the process follows these steps:
- Employers certify a Labor Condition Application (LCA) with the Department of Labor, pledging to meet wage and workplace rules. The LCA is submitted on form
ETA-9035E; applicants can review the official LCA form and instructions on the Department of Labor site. - If a role is subject to the cap, employers register for the annual lottery and wait for selection before filing a full petition.
- When selected, employers file Form I-129 to request H-1B classification. The official
Form I-129and instructions are available on the USCIS website. - After adjudication, workers abroad apply for a visa at a consulate; those in the United States may change status if eligible.
The official H-1B overview, including eligibility, caps, and compliance details, is maintained by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services on the USCIS H-1B specialty occupations page. That page explains core rules, including the 65,000 regular cap and the 20,000 advanced degree exemption, and employer obligations tied to the LCA.
The core disagreements remain unresolved: is the system reflecting global talent flows or a skewed pipeline that privileges volume filers and lower wages?
Who is affected and how
- For Indian applicants, a ~70% share of approvals keeps India central to U.S. tech staffing and any reform push. Many emphasize they follow rules, meet specialty degree requirements, and advance quickly inside U.S. companies. But broad statistics can overshadow individual stories.
- For U.S. graduates and early-career workers, pressure appears in job searches and salary negotiations. Some report longer timelines for entry-level roles or being nudged toward contract work while core roles go to workers placed via large vendors.
- For employers, uncertainty cuts both ways:
- High-volume filers benefit from specialized compliance teams.
- Smaller firms and startups risk losing promising candidates or missing time-sensitive project windows—missing the spring lottery can mean waiting a full year.
Political and practical trade-offs
Policymakers face complex choices:
- Raising wages in selection could reduce undercutting but may favor high-paying metro areas.
- Country caps could reduce India’s share but risk bottlenecks and diplomatic fallout.
- Expanding the cap might ease pressure but faces opposition from labor groups.
- Narrow pilots (e.g., AI or national security) could gain support but risk mission creep.
What most agree on is the need for clearer rules against abuse:
- Extra scrutiny of multiple registrations tied to the same person
- Stronger identity checks
- Sharper penalties for fraud
Employers who comply want a cleaner process; they argue that bad actors taint the program and invite slowdowns that affect everyone. Indian professionals echo this concern—they do not want careers defined by a debate that treats them as a statistic.
What to watch next
As Congress weighs options and agencies consider rule updates, the numbers will keep driving the story. If Indian nationals continue to receive around 70% of approvals, the dispute over whether this reflects global talent flows or a skewed pipeline will persist.
Possible drivers of any change in share include:
- Targeted enforcement
- Wage-based selection
- Changes in filing behavior
For now, the headline remains unchanged: India’s share is dominant, and the fight over how to allocate scarce H-1B visas will continue to shape careers, paychecks, and corporate plans on both sides of the world.
This Article in a Nutshell
The H-1B debate intensified after claims that the system is “rigged,” citing data showing 73.7% of H-1B approvals from 2020–2023 went to Indian nationals and roughly 71% in late 2024. Critics say high-volume outsourcing firms gaming the lottery and compressing wages create a “pipeline issue” that disadvantages U.S. graduates, while defenders point to India’s large English-speaking STEM workforce as a natural explanation. Key policy options include wage-based selection, country caps, anti-fraud enforcement, and targeted tracks for critical skills. The H-1B process centers on the LCA, lottery registration, Form I-129 petitions, consular visas or status changes, and compliance monitoring. The debate balances protecting domestic workers and wages against keeping U.S. companies globally competitive; intensified oversight and potential reforms will determine whether the concentration persists or shifts.
