Is Canada’s immigration out of control? Data shows slowdowns

(CANADA) Canada’s immigration debate, once a political third rail in a country that long sold itself as a stable, pro‑migrant outlier, has broken into open view in late 2025 even as the federal government moves to slow arrivals on purpose. Ottawa’s latest numbers show both permanent and temporary inflows easing, yet housing shortages and pressure on schools and clinics keep the question alive: is immigration “out of control,” or is Canada already pulling the brakes?

Key headline numbers and targets

• In the first quarter of 2025, Canada admitted 104,256 permanent immigrants — the lowest first‑quarter total in four years, according to the source material.
• The federal Immigration Levels Plan (2025–2027) sets a lower target than earlier ambitions of 500,000 admissions a year.
• Under the 2025–2027 plan:
  • 395,000 permanent residents in 2025 (21% drop from the prior 500,000 ambition)
  • 380,000 in 2026
  • 380,000 in 2027 (and the plan notes a shift to 64% of admissions being economic migrants)
• Permanent resident admissions were 464,265 in 2024, and the new planning numbers reflect a deliberate slowdown rather than an accidental spike.

Temporary residents and program caps

• The temporary resident population began to fall from its recent peak:
  • Fell by 61,111 from January 1 to April 1, 2025
  • Fell by a net 58,719 between April and July 2025
• The temporary resident stock had reached 3.15 million in October 2024 (about 7.3% of the population) before the government tightened caps and program rules.
• Study permit applications are capped at 550,162 for 2025.
• New planning targets for 2026 aim for 385,000 temporary admissions, down from 673,650 in 2025, including:
  • 155,000 students
  • 230,000 workers

Population growth and migration’s share

• In Q2 2025, population growth slowed to 0.1%, adding 47,098 people.
  • International migration accounted for 33,694 of that growth (71.5%).
• By contrast, in Q2 2024 Canada grew by 272,000 people, a figure that fed headlines about record growth and stressed housing supply.

Political response and legislation

• Prime Minister Mark Carney (took office March 2025) framed the approach as a reset, not a retreat.
• Carney called immigration levels “unsustainable” and backed legislation introduced in June 2025 that:
  • Expands refugee ineligibility
  • Bars many asylum claims after one year (which could increase deportations for people who wait too long to file)
  • Amends the Customs Act and the Oceans Act to support border security
• The overall signal: Ottawa wants to show control at the border while trimming intake targets.

“Unsustainable” — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s characterization of immigration levels as he backs border and eligibility reforms.

Public opinion and politics

• A Broadbent Institute poll cited in the source found:
  • 45% of Canadians see immigration’s impact as positive
  • 32% see it as negative
  • 22% call it neutral
• The Environics Institute data referenced indicates:
  • >50% of respondents now believe Canada accepts too many immigrants — a notable shift from earlier years.
• Nearly 60% of people polled in late 2024 thought immigration levels were too high — the first time a majority had taken that view since 2000.
• Political reactions:
  • Conservatives: call for a pause in some immigration until housing and healthcare pressures ease; want reforms to temporary foreign worker streams and more weight on skilled permanent pathways.
  • Other critics: point to strains on postsecondary institutions and rising precarity for those trying to settle amid changing rules (e.g., post‑graduation work permits, Express Entry adjustments).

Social and economic context

• Canada’s population is aging; foreign‑born residents reached 23% of the population by January 1, 2025.
• Supporters of higher immigration argue newcomers:
  • Help keep the labour market running
  • Shore up tax revenues
• Opponents emphasize:
  • How fast arrivals can outpace housing starts and local services
• The 2026–2028 plan holds permanent resident targets at 380,000 a year and aims to bring temporary residents down to 5% of the population by end‑2026 — showing Ottawa’s attempt to slow growth without cutting it off.

Impact on people and institutions

• The policy shifts affect real people and organizations:
  • International students who budgeted for Canadian tuition assuming post‑graduation work options
  • Employers who built staffing plans around steady streams of temporary workers
  • Refugees and asylum seekers facing tighter deadlines and higher risk under a one‑year bar for claims
• Postsecondary institutions and local services (housing, healthcare, schools) are watching the scale‑backs closely.

Interpretation: slowdown vs. “out of control”

• The perception of an “out of control” system was fueled by rapid rises earlier in the decade.
• The 2025 trend line runs the other way: even with 104,256 permanent admissions in Q1 2025, Ottawa is now below recent peaks and is using policy to keep totals down.
• The source compares Q1 2025 with 86,246 in Q1 2016 and with higher recent quarters, indicating the government has room to turn the dial.
• Analysts connect the shift to 2024 decisions meant to ease pressure on housing and social services after rapid growth strained affordability.

Source references and final takeaway

• Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada publishes the federal targets and updates on the Immigration Levels Plan at: IRCC’s Immigration Levels Plan page — this includes the government’s latest stated mix of economic, family, and humanitarian admissions.
• Analysis by VisaVerge.com highlights the key point in late 2025: Ottawa is not chasing ever‑higher numbers. Instead, it is trimming both permanent and temporary inflows while the politics around housing and identity make the debate feel more acute to many voters.