Indian Immigrants Drive U.S. Economy; H-1B Vital for Growth

(UNITED STATES) Indian immigrants are delivering outsize gains to the United States economy, and the H-1B visa that brings many of them to American employers is a central driver of that impact, according to new 2025 research. A study by economist Daniel Di Martino at the Manhattan Institute finds that each Indian immigrant reduces the national debt by more than $1.6 million over 30 years and boosts output more than any other immigrant group.

For Indian H-1B professionals in particular, the study estimates a $500,000 increase in U.S. GDP per person and a $2.3 million debt reduction over three decades—figures tied to very high education levels and strong earnings trajectories.

Those findings come as companies warn of tightening access to talent and rising costs. Effective September 21, 2025, the administration of President Trump introduced a $100,000 fee for certain H-1B applications, a sharp increase that employers say will hit recruiting for critical roles.

The stakes go beyond hiring. Research cited in the same policy debate suggests that ending the program outright could add $4 trillion to the national debt over 30 years, an outcome that would ripple through federal budgets and long-term growth projections.

Economic findings: education, taxes, and long-run debt

The Di Martino analysis highlights why Indian immigrants rank at the top on fiscal contribution.

• 81% of Indian immigrants aged 25 and older hold at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 41% for the overall foreign-born workforce.
• Education explains much of the gap in lifetime taxes paid and benefits received.

Key tax and benefit comparisons from the study:

• A 30-year-old immigrant with a college degree: pays about $200,000 in federal taxes over 10 years and receives around $28,000 in federal benefits.
• An immigrant without a high school diploma: pays roughly $60,000 in taxes over 10 years and receives $66,000 in benefits.

The research ranks other nationalities as well:

• Chinese immigrants: more than $800,000 in debt reduction per person over 30 years.
• Filipino immigrants: over $600,000 per person.

But Indian immigrants sit in a class of their own thanks to their higher share in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). Their strong earnings and tax contributions feed directly into national accounts, affecting debates about GDP growth, fiscal balance, and the talent mix the United States needs.

“We’re not just filling seats. We’re building products and teams.”
— Software lead in Texas on an H-1B visa, describing six-figure taxes and mentoring U.S. graduates

Many Indian professionals arrive via U.S. graduate programs and move from internships and Optional Practical Training into full-time roles, and a large share later transition to permanent residency. Over time they contribute to startups, patents, and leadership that anchor U.S.-based teams.

Evidence on job creation and spillovers

Contrary to fears that H-1B hiring displaces American workers, multiple studies show net spillovers in the opposite direction.

• The National Foundation for American Policy found that, on average, each H-1B position requested is associated with 7.5 additional jobs created for U.S. workers.
• Firms that win the H-1B lottery tend to expand faster, raise revenue, and survive longer.
• The strongest effects appear in small, high-productivity companies that use specialized skills to scale and then hire more native graduates in marketing, sales, operations, and customer support.

Economists explain the mechanism as complementarity:

• When engineers build a new product, firms hire account managers, customer success teams, and finance staff.
• These roles are complements, not substitutes, to technical hires.

Findings also show no evidence that hiring H-1B workers displaces native college-educated workers in the long run. While narrow, short-term competition can occur in specific roles, broad consumer benefits—lower prices, better products, and faster innovation—tend to increase demand and hiring across the company.

Macro projections illustrating the potential gains:

• Raising the H-1B cap from 65,000 to 105,000 could create 227,000 jobs in the first year, reaching 1.3 million by 2045.
• National personal income would increase by $13.7 billion initially and grow to $146 billion by 2045.

These projected gains align with Di Martino’s findings that Indian immigrants have a large positive effect on GDP growth and fiscal health.

Industry perspective and policy responses

Tech leaders stress the practical consequences of restricted access to specialists: a missing specialist can stall a product launch for months, and first-mover advantage matters. Large platforms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) rely on a mix of U.S. and global talent to keep pipelines moving.

• VisaVerge.com reports firms with steady H-1B hiring are more likely to expand teams in the U.S. rather than shift work abroad.
• Nasscom (Indian technology industry group) emphasized in 2025 that H-1B visas address skills shortages, not low-wage hiring, pointing to pay data and high shares of advanced degrees among Indian immigrants.

Recruiters identify acute demand gaps in fields like:

• Cloud security
• AI safety
• Embedded systems

Policy changes can push work offshore. Studies show firms that struggle to hire H-1B workers often move projects to teams in India or hubs in Canada. Skilled professionals who miss H-1B opportunities frequently pursue Canada’s points-based system, growing that country’s tech sector instead.

One estimate suggests that a permanent 10% drop in college-educated immigration would reduce annual welfare for U.S. natives by about $2.9 billion, a compounding loss over time.

Immediate pressure point: cost and process

The new $100,000 fee for certain H-1B filings (effective September 21, 2025) hits fast-growing startups and mid-size firms hardest—those with multiple hires and limited cash reserves.

• For many companies, the added expense can shut down key roles or delay projects.
• Larger firms can absorb the cost but face internal trade-offs.

Employers also cite uncertainty around lottery odds and processing times, which complicates long-term planning.

How the H-1B process works (high level):

1. Employer files a Labor Condition Application (LCA) — form ETA-9035 — with the Department of Labor, committing to required wages and workplace rules.
2. Employer files Form I-129, the Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker, with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

For official reference, see:
– the USCIS H-1B guidance
– the USCIS Form I-129 page
– the Department of Labor’s H-1B program overview for the LCA ETA-9035 at the DOL H-1B program page

Employers say predictable rules matter as much as caps and fees: clear timelines, stable processing, decent lottery odds, and fast review for shortage fields help teams plan product roadmaps and avoid staff gaps during critical build cycles.

Balancing protections and growth

The debate centers on balancing wages, worker protections, and growth. Economists acknowledge some U.S. graduates compete with immigrant peers in certain roles, but overall findings indicate:

• Economy-wide benefits—stronger firms, lower prices, wider product choice, and follow-on hiring—tend to outweigh narrow wage effects.
• Policymakers must address abuse without cutting off a channel that supports productivity and GDP growth.

Experts suggest constructive policy options that protect workers and maintain economic momentum:

• Targeted visas for shortage fields tied to strong wage rules.
• Faster review for advanced-degree holders in STEM with clear skill markers.
• Guardrails on outsourcing plus vigorous enforcement against bad actors.

These measures aim to keep the economic engine running while addressing legitimate concerns.

Personal choices and international competition

For individual Indian professionals, the choices are often personal and time-sensitive. For example, a software architect who lost the H-1B lottery twice considered an offer in Toronto rather than wait another year. His comment—“My team is in California, but my career can’t wait forever”—illustrates how policy can redirect talent flows between the United States and Canada and with them the auxiliary jobs that follow high-skilled work.

The Di Martino findings suggest that a steady pipeline of Indian immigrants matters for public finances: high earners pay more over a lifetime, and many H-1B holders move into leadership roles, broadening their tax base. If policymakers seek to support GDP growth while easing pressure on the national debt, the research points to skilled immigration as a proven tool.

Key takeaways

• Indian immigrants generate large fiscal benefits: >$1.6 million debt reduction per person over 30 years, with H-1B professionals showing particularly strong effects.
• High education levels (81% with bachelor’s or higher) drive tax contributions and lower net fiscal costs.
• H-1B hiring produces positive spillovers, creating additional U.S. jobs and fueling firm growth.
• The new $100,000 fee (effective Sept 21, 2025) creates short-term pressure on startups and mid-size firms and may shift hiring and projects abroad.
• Policy options that target shortages, speed processing for advanced-degree STEM holders, and enforce anti-abuse rules could preserve benefits while protecting workers.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, keeping that momentum will depend on policy choices made this year and next—how fees, caps, and processing rules are set will influence whether the United States retains or loses access to critical, high-skill talent.