EY Study Finds Positive Migratory Balance Fuels Romania’s Labour Market Growth

(ROMANIA) — EY said Romania’s labor market is being reshaped by two forces at once: decades of emigration that sent more than 4 million Romanians abroad and a newer rise in immigration that is helping employers fill persistent staffing gaps.

Its study, titled “Migration at a Crossroads: The Evolution of Emigration and Immigration,” found that Romania lost 2.3 million residents over two decades through emigration but posted a positive migratory balance from 2022-2024, with more immigrants than emigrants for the first time in years as labor demand pulled workers in.

That shift matters for employers facing hiring pressure in an aging country with a shrinking workforce. New arrivals from countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, India, and Turkey are moving into jobs that Romanian companies have struggled to fill, especially in construction, manufacturing, HoReCa, logistics, retail and transport.

Romania’s labor squeeze did not emerge overnight. Since the 1989 Revolution, roughly 4 million Romanians, nearly 20% of those born in the country, have left to live abroad, with the outflow reaching 3.6-4 million by 2016 after EU accession.

Many of those departures hit sectors that already needed trained staff. EY said shortages have built up in IT, engineering, healthcare, BPO and logistics, leaving companies short of workers across both professional and manual roles.

The apparent contradiction is that unemployment has remained low while vacancies stay hard to fill. EY said the shrinking working-age population, low birth rates and labor outflows have kept unemployment below 5% in 2026, while some estimates put it stable around 6%, masking deeper structural shortages.

Those shortages have wider effects beyond hiring. EY linked them to informal work, inactivity, regional depopulation and poverty in poorer parts of the country, even as remittances from Romanians abroad and return migration bring money and skills back into the economy.

Recent immigration has started to change that picture, though unevenly. EY said Romania recorded a positive migratory balance from 2022-2024, temporary immigrants aged up to 39 rose 79% from 2008-2024, and growth accelerated to 84% in 2020-2024.

Those inflows closely match the age profile of many Romanians who left. In practice, they are helping employers replace missing workers in the country’s most active age groups rather than reversing the deeper demographic decline.

Most of the new arrivals are third-country nationals, often young men working in lower-skilled or manual jobs. EY said they are concentrated in Bucharest-Ilfov, Timis, Cluj, Brasov and Constanta, where demand is strongest and employers are better placed to recruit from abroad.

Hiring demand remains broad even with those inflows. The National Employment Agency, or ANOFM, reported 32,056 vacancies as of March 5, 2026, showing how far labor demand still outstrips supply in parts of the economy.

Four figures capture the pressure. EY said more than 4 million Romanians live abroad, Romania lost 2.3 million residents over two decades, the country posted a positive migratory balance from 2022-2024, and ANOFM counted 32,056 vacancies as of March 5, 2026.

Vacancies are not spread evenly. Many are clustered in labor-intensive jobs where turnover is high, working conditions can be demanding and local recruitment has been difficult even before employers increased hiring from abroad.

Transport and delivery stand out. ANOFM counted 2,249 road transport drivers and over 2,000 couriers among the open jobs, reflecting pressure on supply chains, delivery networks and passenger and freight movement.

Construction is also short of workers. ANOFM listed over 2,000 unskilled construction workers for demolition and installation roles, underlining how basic site work remains hard to staff even as foreign labor enters the market.

Retail and related service work show the same pattern. The agency counted 1,600 shop assistants, while security guards and goods handlers accounted for 1,300 openings.

Those figures point to an economy where shortages run through daily consumer services as much as through industrial activity. Employers in retail, HoReCa, manufacturing and security-related work are competing for staff in jobs that are often lower paid and less stable.

Yet Romania’s labor shortages are not limited to lower-wage occupations. EY said the country has over 200,000 professionals in IT, but demand still exceeds that base, while engineering and other technical fields continue to lack enough qualified workers.

That split helps explain why labor gaps persist across very different pay and skill levels. Some employers cannot recruit enough workers for physically demanding jobs, while others cannot find mid- to high-seniority specialists with the training they need.

Wages remain part of the problem. One in three employees earns under RON 2,700 (EUR 540)/month, and ANOFM’s vacancy data shows that openings can remain unfilled even when employers keep advertising them.

More immigration has eased some pressure, but it has not erased the mismatch between what firms offer and what workers will accept. Hiring from abroad can add headcount quickly in selected occupations, yet it does not automatically solve pay disputes, retention problems or uneven regional demand.

That is especially clear in Romania’s largest labor hubs. Bucharest-Ilfov, Timis, Cluj, Brasov and Constanta can attract foreign workers into construction, delivery, retail and manufacturing, while smaller or poorer regions still struggle with outward migration and weaker local economies.

Employers also face a narrower domestic labor pool than in the past. Romania’s aging population, rising salary expectations and the long-term effect of talent migration mean that many workers who left are not expected to return in numbers large enough to close the gap.

Multilingual sectors add another layer. EY said BPO and service industries still need workers with language skills, making the labor shortage more than a question of simple headcount.

Official data suggest the pressure will continue. The National Institute of Statistics, or INSSE, reported 31,600 vacancies in Q3 2025, and Cedefop expects medium-skill jobs to dominate openings through 2035.

That outlook points to continued demand in roles that sit between basic labor and highly specialized professions. Romania will need workers for transport, logistics, retail, construction and manufacturing even as demand stays elevated in tech and engineering.

Policy changes could alter how employers compete for staff. EY said EU salary transparency rules due by 2026 will require salary ranges in job ads and could boost applications by 75%.

That shift may make some vacancies easier to fill if applicants respond to clearer pay information. It could also expose just how many employers rely on low offers in a market where shortages have become chronic.

Romania’s labor market is also widening in other ways. EY pointed to digital nomads as an emerging source of high-skill remote work, adding another channel through which international mobility can shape the economy.

At the same time, new labor inflows bring risks that policymakers and employers will have to manage. EY said rising immigration increases the need for safeguards against exploitation, low job satisfaction and discrimination, especially for third-country nationals working in lower-skilled jobs.

Some employers are already using incentives to attract staff from abroad. EY cited accessible visas, free accommodation and integration activities as positive factors that can support recruitment and settlement.

Still, immigration alone is not enough to stabilize the market. Romania also needs ways to hold on to workers after arrival, improve housing support and make sure workplace protections keep pace with the country’s growing dependence on foreign labor.

Technology may complicate that task. EY said AI and automation could create a ‘barbell’ market favoring high/low-skill jobs over medium ones, even as Cedefop projects that medium-skill jobs will dominate openings through 2035.

That leaves employers planning for two pressures at once: immediate hiring shortages and a longer-term reshaping of demand. Companies that struggle to fill driver, courier, shop assistant or construction roles today may also need to rethink how work is organized as technology spreads.

For now, the clearest pattern is that Romania’s labor market has entered a new phase rather than resolved an old one. Emigration still weighs on the workforce, immigration is rising in response, and the adjustment remains uneven across regions, sectors and wage levels.

The EY study shows a country trying to replace missing workers while adapting to demographic decline. Romania has moved into a period of positive migratory balance, but turning labor inflows into stable, protected employment will determine whether that shift eases the strain on employers or simply changes where the pressure falls.