European public opinion on immigration stays steady despite tighter policies

(EUROPE) Europe’s broad views on immigration have held steady through the pandemic and the latest political cycle, even as governments tighten rules at borders and speed up decisions. The major shift is policy, not a wave in public opinion. The centerpiece is the EU’s 2024 Pact on Migration and Asylum, with most measures due to apply from June 2026. The European Commission calls the package “firm and fair,” promising faster screening, stronger returns, and a burden‑sharing system among member states.

Rights groups and several researchers warn the changes could limit access to asylum and expand detention‑like facilities without clear proof they will reduce irregular arrivals.

Policy shift under the Pact

The Pact on Migration and Asylum introduces several major changes:

• Accelerated border procedures capped at 12 weeks.
• Expansion of holding facilities at or near external borders.
• A “solidarity mechanism” allowing states to either relocate people or pay €20,000 per person instead.

The European Commission’s latest briefing on July 9, 2025 says work is under way to align laws, build capacity at borders, and deepen partnerships with non‑EU countries to curb departures and raise return rates. For the Commission, this is the first full system overhaul in more than a decade, intended to add order and speed to a strained process.

This is presented as an overhaul to add order and speed to migration procedures across the EU.

Critics push back:

• Human Rights Watch’s 2025 review argues the 2024–2025 policy line prioritizes deterrence and external deals with countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Mauritania, Lebanon, Libya, and Morocco.
• The group warns the Pact’s emergency triggers—like “mass influx” or “instrumentalization”—are vague and could deny access to asylum.
• A February 2025 Carnegie analysis says there is “little reason” to expect the Pact to stop migration and argues past clampdowns have raised smuggling profits and risks.

Meanwhile, irregular arrivals fell in 2024 to the lowest level since 2021, yet rules still tightened in 2025 under electoral and political pressure. Analysis by VisaVerge.com highlights the split between relatively stable public views and tougher policy as a defining feature of Europe’s immigration debate.

National moves: diverging paths

While the European Commission drives common rules, national actions differ significantly.

• Italy
  • Pushed offshoring first among EU states via a deal with Albania, with initial transfers in October 2024.
  • Court setbacks prompted a shift: one site converted into a repatriation hub to ease detention concerns.
  • Domestic measures in 2025 include mandatory digital steps for work permits, biometric data for long‑term visas, employer confirmation before visa issuance, and a flows‑decree quota of 181,000 for the 2023–2025 cycle.
  • Italy also promotes the EU Blue Card for high‑skill roles, which runs outside national quotas.
• Greece
  • Facing more arrivals, in July 2025 Greece announced it would stop processing asylum claims from North Africa, reflecting the Pact’s push for faster border screening.
• Spain
  • Proposing a different approach: plans under debate would regularize about 300,000 undocumented people per year for three years to meet labor needs and relocate unaccompanied minors from the Canary Islands to the mainland.
• Poland
  • The 2025–2030 strategy emphasizes “security, control, selectivity.”
  • Measures include tighter student‑visa checks, higher integration and citizenship thresholds, and a digital‑first approach.
  • Easier access is allowed only for shortage occupations.
  • Employers are advised to plan at least six months ahead, with typical processing times of two to five months.
  • The strategy also raises the option to temporarily suspend asylum during emergencies.

A separate flashpoint in May 2025: nine governments—including Italy, Denmark, Austria, Poland, and several Baltic and Central‑Eastern states—pressed the Council of Europe to reinterpret human‑rights case law on expulsions and family reunification. That petition triggered friction with the European Court of Human Rights and raised concerns about judicial independence.

Practical effects for people on the move

The measures will roll out through 2025 and take full effect in June 2026. Key practical impacts:

For asylum seekers
– Expect broader use of fast‑track border procedures and more time in secured facilities at or near external borders.
– People from countries with low recognition rates may face quicker rejections and faster removals.
– Offshoring experiments (e.g., Italy‑Albania) will continue to face court review, especially around detention standards and access to lawyers.

For workers and students
– The landscape is diverging by country:
– Italy is digitizing casework, keeping high quotas under its flows decree, and steering high‑skill roles to the EU Blue Card channel outside quotas.
– Poland is moving toward a points‑like model with strict checks for students and non‑shortage roles, while maintaining lanes for shortage occupations but with longer lead times.

For removals
– Political pressure to lift return rates is increasing.
– The nine‑state push to loosen human‑rights limits on expulsions signals a toughening stance, but legal battles with European courts are likely to intensify into 2026.

For intra‑EU solidarity
– The Pact’s relocation‑or‑payment system is set for 2026, with reference figures of up to 30,000 relocations per year or a €20,000 contribution per applicant.
– Throughout 2025, governments are negotiating the practical mechanics of this system.

Behind the scenes, member states are:
– Upgrading border sites.
– Building case‑handling systems.
– Signing more deals with neighbors to speed returns and readmissions.

The scale and conditions at new facilities will shape whether the Pact is seen as orderly and humane or as tilting toward long border holds with thin safeguards. Courts and independent monitors will be central to that judgment.

Political and economic context

Politics remain complex:

• Many parties campaign on tougher enforcement and faster removals.
• Countries with tight labor markets—Spain is a clear example—are testing regularization to meet staffing needs and reduce irregular work.
• This regularization approach retains traction where ageing populations and worker shortages are pressing concerns.

For now, the big picture is clear: policy is tightening, operations are being rebuilt, and the core test arrives in June 2026. Public opinion has not collapsed against immigration. The outcome will likely hinge on:

1. How fairly the fast tracks operate.
2. Whether returns rise without rights breaches.
3. Whether legal migration channels expand enough to meet Europe’s economic needs.

Courts, monitors, and the practical conditions at border facilities will largely determine whether the Pact delivers an orderly system or erodes protections.

For official detail on the Pact and the implementation timeline, see the European Commission’s page on the package: https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/migration-and-asylum/new-pact-migration-and-asylum_en.