EU asylum applications drop 23% in first half of 2025

(EUROPEAN UNION) EU asylum applications fell sharply in the first half of 2025, dropping by 23% compared with the same period in 2024, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum’s mid‑year review. EU+ countries—EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland—registered 399,000 claims by the end of June.

Officials and analysts tie the decline to three main factors: a steep fall in claims from Syrians after the collapse of the Assad government in December 2024; a reshaping of preferred destinations inside the bloc; and early effects of new EU asylum rules that speed up screening and decisions at the border.

Shifts in applicant profile and nationalities

The profile of who is applying has changed significantly.

• Syrian applications fell by two‑thirds (–66%) to just 25,000 in H1 2025.
• Venezuelan claims rose by almost a third (+31%) to 49,000, making Venezuelans the largest nationality group this year.

This shift is altering pressure points across the bloc and raising new policy questions about reception capacity, processing speeds, and return decisions for people from countries with low protection rates.

In May 2025, 54% of applications came from nationalities that had a 2024 recognition rate of 20% or less, signaling a tilt toward cases with lower chances of protection.

Where applicants are going

The map of destinations inside EU+ has also changed:

• France: 78,000 applications — now the top destination.
• Spain: 77,000 applications — close behind France.
• Germany: 70,000 applications — down 43% year over year and no longer in first place.
• Italy: 64,000 applications (–25%).
• Greece: 27,000 applications — the highest per‑capita recipient (about one application per 380 residents).

The fall in Germany’s caseload is linked to the drop in Syrian arrivals, who previously formed a large share of its applicants. Spain’s high share of Venezuelan applicants reflects language, diaspora networks, and national protection policies that operate alongside EU rules.

Analysis and interpretations

According to VisaVerge.com analysis, the numbers reflect both geopolitical shifts and the EU’s policy push to process more people at the border. Key points:

• The decline in Syrian claims redistributes pressure rather than removing it.
• Spain continues to receive most Venezuelan applicants due to language and community ties and national protection pathways.
• Officials in Brussels say the new framework aims to bring “order, quick decisions, and fair sharing.”
• Human rights groups warn the approach risks sidelining rights in the name of speed.

National governments are adjusting reception systems and legal aid as caseloads shift: France and Spain are reinforcing reception in key cities, while Germany is reallocating resources following the marked drop in Syrian claims.

Policy context: the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum

EUAA’s mid‑year findings stress the broader policy framework shaping these trends.

• On May 14, 2024, lawmakers signed the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum.
• The pact introduced mandatory border screening and accelerated procedures for certain groups, especially nationalities with low recognition rates.
• Full rollout of border procedures is scheduled for June 2026, but several elements are already influencing registration and assessment practices.
• The pact expands use of detention at borders and gives authorities more tools for rapid returns, particularly in “mass influx” scenarios or where non‑EU countries are seen as “instrumentalizing” migration.

The pact also includes a “solidarity mechanism” intended to share responsibilities across member states, but critics say frontline and popular destination countries will likely still shoulder most of the caseload.

External partnerships and controversy

External partnerships form a second leg of the strategy:

• The EU has deepened cooperation with Egypt, Mauritania, Lebanon, Tunisia, Libya, and Morocco, providing funding for border control and returns.
• Proponents argue these deals reduce dangerous journeys and smuggling.
• Opponents argue they outsource protection duties to partners with poor rights records, increasing risks of abuse and chain refoulement (returns that indirectly send people back to danger).

Recognition standards and practical impacts

The pact preserves the non‑refoulement principle (no return to serious harm) but allows more exceptions and faster returns under defined circumstances. In practice:

• Applicants from low‑recognition countries face higher chances of being processed at the border and removed quickly if rejected.
• EUAA data showing many claims from low‑recognition nationalities points to more cases routed into fast‑track lanes, where decisions and returns can move rapidly.
• Rights groups caution that fast‑track processing can limit time to find legal help, gather documents, and prepare appeals.

Country snapshots

• Spain: Around 93% of Venezuelan applicants file in Spain. National protection pathways alongside the EU system concentrate Latin American claims there, easing pressure on other states.
• Germany: The –43% fall in claims aligns with reduced Syrian arrivals. Historically, Syrians favored Germany for family links and perceived asylum stability. Post‑Assad collapse, many Syrians reassess options closer to home or within the region.
• Greece: With 27,000 applications and the highest per‑capita rate, reception centers and legal aid providers remain under strain. The border model may increase detention near entry points, heightening the need for timely access to lawyers and interpreters.

Policy changes reshaping the asylum map

• EU Pact on Migration and Asylum (May 14, 2024): Mandatory border screening, wider accelerated procedures, more detention at borders; full border procedure rollout by June 2026. Includes a solidarity mechanism with contested effectiveness.
• Detention and returns: Stronger powers for rapid returns in “mass influx” or “instrumentalization” scenarios.
• Visa policy shift pending: European Parliament vote expected in late 2025 could make it easier to suspend visa‑free travel for nationalities linked to many unfounded claims (officials cite Venezuelans and Colombians).
• External partnerships: Expanded cooperation and funding with Egypt, Mauritania, Lebanon, Tunisia, Libya, and Morocco for border control and returns.

EU officials argue these steps will cut irregular crossings and shorten decision times. Human rights organizations warn the plan risks normalizing detention, reducing legal access, and limiting fair case consideration.

Impact on applicants and member states

At entry points, procedures and consequences have tightened:

• Most arrivals face identity, security, and health screening on arrival.
• People from low recognition‑rate countries are more likely to enter fast‑track procedures and may be detained during assessment.
• Timeframes are shorter; appeal rights remain but with tighter deadlines, making it harder to gather evidence, contact family, or secure legal aid.

Practical consequences for families and individuals are immediate and personal:

• A Syrian couple filing in the EU today may find fewer community ties in Germany than in the past.
• A Venezuelan mother arriving in Spain might get faster processing but also face higher return risks if her case is in a low‑recognition profile.

Member states are balancing reception with returns:

• France and Spain: expanding reception capacity and case‑handling staff.
• Germany: shifting resources toward integration for recognized applicants and improving reception flexibility.
• Greece: focusing on first‑entry processing and access to legal counsel at borders.

Procedure at a glance (as of 2025)

1. Arrival and screening
   • Mandatory checks for identity, health, security, and vulnerability.
2. Border procedure
   • Applicants from low recognition‑rate countries or with inadmissible claims processed at the border and may be detained during assessment.
3. Where to apply
   • Claims are usually lodged in the country of first entry; transfers can occur under the Dublin Regulation.
4. Assessment track
   • Cases go through accelerated or regular procedures based on nationality, vulnerability, and other factors.
5. Decision and appeal
   • Border cases get quicker decisions; appeals are possible but have tighter timelines.
6. Outcome
   • Protection, transfer to another EU country, or return to country of origin/transit.

Drivers and outlook

Researchers point to a mix of drivers behind current numbers:

• The fall of the Assad regime reduced new Syrian claims to the EU.
• Changing migration patterns from Latin America elevated Spain’s role.
• Policy tools push more low‑recognition cases into fast tracks at the border.

The EUAA’s mid‑year review notes that trends could change if conflicts flare or visa policies shift later in 2025.

Three developments to watch for the rest of 2025 and into 2026:

• The European Parliament’s expected late‑2025 vote on the visa suspension tool, which could curb arrivals from certain countries.
• Full rollout of border procedures in June 2026, likely to further speed decisions and returns at entry points.
• New or deeper partnerships with non‑EU countries expanding border controls beyond Europe, even as court challenges test parts of the pact.

Guidance and resources

As governments prepare for these shifts, applicants need clear, official guidance.

The European Union Agency for Asylum maintains updates on procedures, country guidance, and statistics. Readers can find resources at the agency’s website: European Union Agency for Asylum.

Key takeaway: H1 2025 saw a sizable fall in EU+ asylum claims driven by geopolitical shifts and policy changes. That fall redistributes pressure across countries and raises crucial questions about protection standards, legal access, and the balance between speed and rights.