Key Takeaways
• Betting markets predict under 100 Gold Cards sold in 2025, despite Trump’s claim of up to one million sales.
• Legal authority remains unresolved; only Congress can authorize new immigration categories like the Gold Card program.
• The Gold Card’s $5 million price far exceeds the EB-5 investor visa and alternatives in countries like Portugal and Spain.
The Gold Card proposal introduced by Donald Trump in early 2025 has sparked a flurry of discussion both within the United States 🇺🇸 and in global markets. The scheme suggests a new pathway to permanent residency in the country, aimed directly at the world’s most wealthy individuals and their families. With a $5 million price tag, it marks a sharp change from earlier programs, most notably the EB-5 investor visa, which for many years served as the main option for foreign investors seeking a green card.
This analysis looks at the 2025 predictions for Gold Card sales based on live betting markets, expert opinions, and practical facts. It draws on recent data from regulated platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, providing a clear look at how many Gold Cards are expected to be sold in 2025. The focus is on what these predictions mean for U.S. immigration, the potential legal hurdles, and the lessons drawn from the history of the EB-5 investor visa.
Introduction to the Gold Card Proposal
Donald Trump unveiled the Gold Card idea in February 2025 as part of a broader effort to attract wealthy investors to the United States 🇺🇸. The plan calls for a $5 million investment per card, stating that this would grant the buyer legal permanent residency, and, possibly, eventual citizenship. Trump and his team have claimed that demand could reach up to one million sales in the first year. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went so far as to say that “37 million people worldwide could afford” the Gold Card.
Despite these bold numbers, the actual launch and impact of the program depend on many factors—especially Congress’s power to approve new types of green cards and set annual limits. As of May 2025, no Gold Cards have actually been issued, and the process remains locked in legal and practical uncertainty.
Betting Markets: Predicting Gold Card Sales
Betting markets offer a real-time picture of public belief about future events. Many traders use platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where they can buy and sell contracts based on whether a specific event will occur. In this case, these markets allow people to bet on how many Gold Cards will be sold in 2025 if the program moves forward.
Kalshi: Probability-Based Forecasts
Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, is one of the main sources for these forecasts. The trading data as of early May 2025 shows:
- A 35% chance that “0 Gold Cards Sold” in 2025.
- A 22% chance that between “1 and 100” will be sold.
- Lower probabilities for higher sales volumes.
This makes it clear that, from the bettors’ perspective, there is a high likelihood that very few–if any–Gold Cards change hands this year. The average number in the Kalshi market is about 57 cards, but this is influenced by some early optimistic bets and public remarks from Lutnick, who once claimed to have “sold 1,000 gold cards in a day.” Still, with no cards actually released yet, traders are scaling back their guesses.
Polymarket: Cryptocurrency-Based Predictions
On Polymarket, which works with cryptocurrency and attracts a global set of participants, the results are almost the same. Most bets are bunched in the lower sales ranges:
- The “0 Gold Cards Sold” contract has the highest trading volume, with about 29% of bets.
- The “1–100 Sold” option holds the second biggest volume, at about 14%.
- Contracts for sales above 100 cards see very little interest.
This pattern matches Kalshi’s, reinforcing the view that, in 2025, few if any Gold Cards will end up being sold.
Table Illustration
Imagine a bar graph where the tallest bars are on the far left—these represent “0 cards sold” and “1–100 cards sold.” As you move to the right (representing higher sales numbers), the bars almost disappear, suggesting sharply falling confidence in large-scale Gold Card sales.
Why Are the Predictions So Low?
Despite optimistic remarks from Trump and Lutnick pointing to millions of possible sales, the betting markets are not convinced. There are three clear reasons for this skepticism: legal authority, practical delays, and the high price.
Legal Authority and Congressional Role
A key blockade is the question of legal power. Under current U.S. 🇺🇸 law, only Congress can create new green card categories or set how many are allowed each year. As explained in a report by Cato Institute, experts argue that no president can start a new program like the Gold Card on their own. Trump’s team may wish to press the plan forward, but real change almost certainly needs Congress to pass a law.
This legal complexity is the main reason why the initial excitement around the Gold Card has cooled. As of now, there is no bill in Congress authorizing sales or setting new limits, meaning any cards sold outside existing programs would likely face lawsuits or could be challenged as invalid.
Implementation Delays
Beyond the law, practical matters also slow the process. As of early May, not a single Gold Card has been sold or issued. Even if the legal side can be worked out, other steps—staff training, system setup, and security checks—would take months. The history of immigration programs shows that changing rules or creating new options can bring lengthy delays.
This matches the view of bettors, who are not just looking at public statements, but also at the slow speed of government change on big immigration rules.
Price Tag: $5 Million
The Gold Card’s price sets it apart from both current and past residency programs around the world. U.S. 🇺🇸 EB-5 investor visas, for example, require $800,000–$1,050,000, and have been criticized for being too expensive already. Many other countries offer “Golden Visas” at levels half or even a fifth of the Gold Card.
Howard Lutnick’s statement that “37 million people worldwide could afford” a Gold Card is disputed by market watchers. While there are that many on paper, very few want to spend $5 million for a single residency card, especially when more flexible and less costly options exist—including permanent residency in countries like Portugal 🇵🇹 or Spain 🇪🇸 starting at much lower figures.
Comparing with the EB-5 Investor Visa
For years, the EB-5 investor visa has served as the main path for wealthy people to get a green card by investing in the United States 🇺🇸. Under the EB-5, about 10,000 visas are issued each year, most often at investments between $800,000 and $1,050,000. Even at those amounts, the program has never come close to sales numbers like those mentioned for the Gold Card.
According to VisaVerge.com, many hurdles—such as job creation requirements, background checks, and wait times—have kept EB-5 demand stable but modest. So, Trump’s promise of selling up to one million Gold Cards in a single year is out of line with existing historical patterns.
Voices from the Field: What Experts and Officials Are Saying
Some officials close to Trump’s administration have spoken about interest from wealthy individuals, with stories of card requests made during private dinners. However, these stories remain unverified. There is, so far, no official count or list of buyers, only anecdotal accounts. As reported by VisaVerge.com, current predictions are guided far more by data from betting markets and recent EB-5 program sales, rather than hopeful claims from officials.
One statement summarizes the feeling in the betting markets: “In the Kalshi betting market, the average prediction is around 57 [cards] though the betting started with over 1,000 because Lutnick once claimed he sold 1,000 gold cards in a day. But the gold cards are not yet live…” This underlines the large gap between official predictions and practical reality.
Context: Immigration Policy, Global Mobility, and Demand
The Gold Card fits into a global trend of wealthy investors seeking second citizenship or residency through what are often called “Golden Visa” programs. These schemes vary greatly between countries. For example, Portugal 🇵🇹 and Greece 🇬🇷 charge under $500,000 for similar residency options. The Gold Card is ten times more expensive, which likely narrows its market sharply.
The most successful programs control numbers through strict quotas and keep prices within reach of a wider group. The U.S. 🇺🇸 EB-5 investor visa is a clear example of a program that has always capped entrants at about 10,000 per year—with lower total costs and investment risk.
If you want to learn more about current investor visa steps, the official U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services website provides clear information on the EB-5 program and its requirements.
Legal Hurdles: The Role of Congress
The biggest challenge to the Gold Card scheme is that only Congress has the power to create new immigration channels or change the rules for permanent residence. While presidents can recommend changes, lasting reforms must go through the lawmaking process.
Experts expect this point will be central in the coming months and may even lead to lawsuits if the administration tries to start the program without proper approval. Without a bill or clear direction from Congress, any Gold Cards sold under the current legal structure would likely be challenged in courts.
Risk Factors and Market Skepticism
Betting markets are skeptical because they factor in these risks: the possibility that no legal framework will be built; the likelihood of delays even if the program is allowed; and the uncertainty of finding millions of wealthy people ready to pay $5 million.
Unlike the EB-5 investor visa, which is well established with set quotas, known rules, and long oversight, the Gold Card faces sharp questions on all these points. Until the program has a legal basis, a clear roll-out plan, and proven demand, traders expect sales to stay extremely low.
Betting Market Volume and Sentiment
Volume—the number of bets or trades on a possible outcome—often shows how strongly the market feels. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the highest trading volume sits on the “0 cards sold” or “1–100 cards sold” contracts. As a rule, high volume in low-outcome categories means most market participants agree with slow or delayed uptake.
Had the program been easy to launch, with a lower price or few legal hurdles, more betting action would have shifted toward larger categories. That has not happened.
Summing Up: What Will Happen in 2025?
In summary, both betting market data and immigration experts predict that Donald Trump’s Gold Card program will, if it launches at all in 2025, result in very few sales—most likely zero or fewer than 100 Gold Cards. Legal challenges, slow government processes, and the high cost are the main reasons.
Donald Trump’s claims of selling up to one million cards remain far out of reach compared to history and to what market watchers expect. The most likely future is a slow rollout, lots of debate, and perhaps a few sales—if Congress acts and wealthy investors decide it is worth the price despite lower-cost alternatives worldwide.
For further updates and to get clear, step-by-step guidance on legal green card options such as the EB-5 investor visa, you can visit the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services page.
Conclusion and Outlook
While the Gold Card plan turns heads with its size and promise, practical facts, betting market analysis, and historical comparisons keep expectations very low for 2025. Unless Congress creates a solid legal basis for such cards and investors see special value in a $5 million U.S. residency, the market expects few takers—if any—this year.
People watching the future of U.S. investor immigration should focus not just on political comments, but also on the steady data provided by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and by time-tested programs like the EB-5 investor visa. For those interested in what comes next, VisaVerge.com will continue to provide reliable news and clear direction in this changing field.
Learn Today
Gold Card → A proposed U.S. residency-by-investment program requiring a $5 million investment for legal permanent residency and potential citizenship.
EB-5 Investor Visa → An established U.S. program granting residency for investments from $800,000, usually tied to job creation requirements.
Betting Markets → Online platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket where participants speculate on outcomes, including immigration program uptake.
Permanent Residency → Legal status allowing a foreign national to live and work permanently in the United States.
Congressional Authority → Exclusive power of the U.S. Congress to create or modify immigration categories such as new visa types.
This Article in a Nutshell
Donald Trump’s Gold Card proposal promises U.S. residency for a $5 million investment, but legal and market skepticism abound. Betting platforms predict fewer than 100 sales in 2025, citing high costs and congressional hurdles. The U.S. EB-5 visa, at significantly lower prices, remains the favored option for wealthy investors worldwide.
— By VisaVerge.com
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