Coalition Says Immigration Is Still Too High, Plans Sharp Cuts

(AUSTRALIA) Australia’s opposition Coalition has set the stage for a fierce fight over immigration policy, vowing to deliver sharp cuts to migrant intake, including international student visas, if it wins the 2028 election. The proposed shift could reshape population growth, university income, and business hiring across the country.

Leadership stance and political context

Liberal leader Sussan Ley has already foreshadowed the shift, telling supporters that:

“this country’s migration numbers are far too high, and this needs to be addressed as a priority.”

She has promised to release detailed migration principles in the coming weeks. That pledge has amplified calls from Coalition backbenchers who argue that even returning net arrivals to pre‑pandemic levels would not go far enough, and that voters want a dramatic pullback in overall intake.

Many inside the party are pressing for a return to what they describe as Howard‑era norms, when around 100,000 permanent migrants a year were admitted. That figure would be less than half of Treasury’s projected intake for 2025–26, according to party sources, and reflects concerns that high migration has strained housing, infrastructure and public services in several cities.

Political commentator Peter Van Onselen summed up this frustration, arguing that even a reduction of 100,000 places from current plans “would merely return immigration back to its pre‑pandemic level, which was still far too high.” His remarks have resonated in Coalition ranks, hardening the view that a simple reset will not satisfy voters who feel squeezed in the housing market and stuck in congested suburbs.

Core elements of the Coalition’s emerging policy

The Coalition’s emerging approach centres on sharp cuts to both skilled migration and international student visas. Senior figures say they see no other short‑term way to ease pressure on rents and roads.

Key signals so far include:

• Stricter employer‑sponsored skilled visas: Shadow home‑affairs minister Jonno Duniam has flagged higher English‑language benchmarks and more aggressive labour‑market testing before firms can bring in overseas workers.
  • Supporters say this will push companies to train local staff first and reserve sponsorship for roles that genuinely cannot be filled by Australians.
  • Business groups warn privately that cutting skilled numbers too far could choke investment.
• Strict caps on international student enrolments: The Coalition argues universities have grown overly dependent on foreign fee payers and that some providers have used student pathways as a backdoor to long‑term stay.
  • The shadow education team promises a future Coalition government would be “much firmer” in deciding how many student places can be sold overseas and at which campuses.

Potential wider changes under consideration

Beyond skilled and student streams, the Coalition has also targeted:

• The dependent family stream — senior figures hint that partner and family visas for people already in Australia could face new limits.
• Post‑study work rights — possible tighter rules for graduates, marking a sharp break from recent years when longer work visas were used to attract students and help employers fill shortages.

Research and drivers of debate

New research from the Australian Population Research Institute reports that about 1.2 million temporary visa holders, including international students and tourists, have settled in Australia since the pandemic. Within that group, roughly 10,000 students have claimed refugee status after their original visas expired.

This has prompted Coalition MPs to call for:

• A crackdown on so‑called “visa hopping”.
• Closer checks on genuine study intentions at application stage.

Impacts expected and reactions

Any clampdown on international student visas would have wide effects:

• Universities rely on international fees to fund research and help cover domestic teaching costs.
• Many regional towns rely on education exports for local jobs.

Critics warn that sudden restrictions could lead to:

• Course closures
• Job losses
• Damage to Australia’s reputation as a welcoming study destination

At the same time, Coalition strategists argue the changes are needed to relieve immediate pressures on housing, infrastructure and services.

Business and education sector responses

Early signals are already affecting decisions:

• Multinational companies weighing new offices in Sydney or Melbourne are being warned by local advisers that future access to employer‑sponsored visas could be much tighter under a Coalition government.
• Education agents overseas are fielding questions from families who fear study in Australia may no longer offer the same pathway to work experience or long‑term residence.

Analysis by VisaVerge.com notes the Coalition’s stance marks one of the starkest contrasts with the Albanese government on population settings since the pandemic, and places migration firmly at the centre of the next electoral contest.

Official planning levels for the permanent migration program are set annually by the federal government, with details published by the Department of Home Affairs on its migration program planning levels page, but the opposition has made clear it wants those totals cut back sharply.

Government and internal party responses

Government ministers have so far avoided detailed responses, but are expected to argue that:

• Migration fills shortages in health, aged care, and technology.
• Migration helps keep universities internationally competitive.
• Current settings already include character checks, income thresholds and English‑language requirements.
• Sudden, deep cuts could have unintended costs for economic growth and Australia’s regional standing.

Within the Liberal Party, views remain divided:

• Some MPs from outer‑suburban and regional seats want even deeper reductions, citing local anger about rent hikes and long hospital queues.
• Others worry that a heavy cut in migration could alienate business allies and migrant‑background voters who have historically supported the centre‑right.

Human consequences and uncertainty

Community groups stress that policy changes on paper can have very human consequences:

• A cut to skilled visas could delay family reunions for those awaiting relatives with needed qualifications.
• Tighter student rules could leave a graduate who has built a life in Australia facing the prospect of leaving when post‑study work rights run out, even if their employer wants to keep them.

For now, details remain deliberately sparse. Ley has promised to unveil a full set of migration principles soon, but party strategists say final numbers and specific visa rules are unlikely to be locked in until closer to the 2028 election campaign. That delay gives the opposition room to respond to economic conditions, but it also leaves universities, businesses and prospective migrants facing years of uncertainty about what rules will apply by the time new applications are lodged.

Key takeaways

The Coalition has succeeded in putting migration at the top of the political agenda. For migrants already in Australia and those overseas considering applying, the message is simple but unsettling: the rules that apply today may look very different by the time votes are cast. Uncertainty remains.

Quick summary table

As the 2028 contest draws nearer, both major parties are expected to publish clearer figures and timelines. Until then, the Coalition’s rhetoric has already shaped boardroom planning and student decisions, while leaving many with an uncertain outlook.