Canada’s 2025 Asylum Surge: Top 10 Origins Revealed

(CANADA) Canada is facing an asylum surge in 2025 that is reshaping the country’s immigration debate and testing the capacity of shelter systems, refugee adjudication, and local services.

In the first six months of the year, 57,440 asylum claims were filed—placing the country on track for roughly 115,000 claims by year-end and echoing last year’s record of 171,840. The rapid rise stems from ongoing instability in several regions, sharp economic stress, and shifts in migration routes, according to federal data.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) figures for the first half of 2025 point to a wide range of origins. The current top 10 countries of origin include: India (9,770), Mexico (7,410), Haiti (6,320), Colombia (5,980), Nigeria (5,210), Turkey (4,870), Iran (4,120), Pakistan (3,950), Venezuela (3,640), and Democratic Republic of Congo (3,170). These counts—updated monthly—track the pace of new claims and show how global unrest and targeted violence continue to push people to seek safety in Canada.

Systemic strain: housing, services, and backlogs

Officials say the current volume strains housing, health care, schools, and legal aid. Toronto and Montreal are once again absorbing the largest share of claimants, while smaller cities feel pressure in shelter capacity and case management.

The Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) now holds a backlog of 291,975 pending claims as of July 2025, with hearing dates stretching far into the future. Provincial leaders in Ontario and Quebec have pressed Ottawa for more funding, citing rising shelter use, growing family needs, and a spike in demand for language training and mental health care.

The federal government argues the asylum surge must be balanced with broader goals—labor priorities and fiscal limits—while keeping Canada’s protection commitments intact.

Geographic distribution and local impacts

The geographic spread reveals unequal pressure points across provinces:

• Ontario: 5,075 claims in H1 2025 (2,700 Q1, 2,375 Q2)
• British Columbia: 2,050
• Quebec: 1,745
• Alberta: 670
• Manitoba: 125

These numbers do not capture local shelter turnover or the full load on hospitals and schools, but they align with municipal reports of nightly shelter shortages and a lack of long-term placements for families. Smaller provinces note that even small increases are hard to absorb quickly because staffing, housing, and service networks need time and funding to scale.

Rising non-permanent resident counts and fiscal effects

The volume of asylum-related non-permanent residents reached 470,029 on April 1, 2025—the highest to date and the thirteenth straight quarterly rise. The growth reflects:

• higher intake,
• slower decision timelines due to the backlog,
• longer average stays while cases move through the IRB.

Analysis by VisaVerge.com notes knock-on effects: sustained demand on shelters, legal services, and health care, and added pressure on federal and provincial budgets during a period of tight spending.

Why people are coming: country-level drivers

The top-10 origins carry clear policy and operational signals:

• India: Mix of political and social pressures, fear of targeted harm.
• Mexico: Rising criminal violence and limited state protection in some regions.
• Haiti: Gang control, kidnappings, security collapse.
• Colombia/Venezuela/Iran/Turkey: Political repression, shrinking civic space, humanitarian crises.
• Nigeria/Pakistan/DRC: Fears based on religion, sexuality, ethnicity, or localized conflict.

While each claim turns on individual facts, the pattern aligns with global reports of shrinking protection space and limited safe third-country solutions.

Policy shifts: immigration levels and PNP cuts

The government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan tightens some permanent resident streams:

• Government-Assisted Refugee target kept at 15,250 (below prior years).
• The in-Canada pathway target for protected persons and dependents abroad falls from 29,000 to 20,000 —a 31% cut.
• A backlog of more than 100,000 applications means longer waits before many can land as permanent residents.

The plan also reserves a larger share of 2025 permanent resident spots for people already in Canada, reducing arrivals from overseas resettlement programs. Advocates warn this risks leaving vulnerable people abroad in limbo.

Operational changes: the RPID and other tools

On March 25, 2025, IRCC replaced the Refugee Protection Claimant Document (RPCD) with the Refugee Protection Identity Document (RPID).

Key features of the RPID:

• Issued after a claim is promoted to eligibility review.
• Carries six-year validity.
• Designed to be more secure and more inclusive.
• Serves as main ID for work permits, health coverage, and many provincial services.
• Existing RPCDs remain valid until expiry; holders do not need to reapply immediately.

The RPID aims to streamline identification as claim volumes rise and reduce confusion at clinics, banks, and other service points.

Legislative debate: Bill C-2

Parliament is studying Bill C-2, tabled on June 3, 2025 and still under review as of September 9, 2025. If passed, the bill would:

• Make ineligible those who entered Canada after June 24, 2020 but filed a claim more than one year after arrival.
• Bar those who crossed the Canada–US land border outside a port and applied after 14 days.
• Allow the government to suspend, terminate, or vary immigration documents and require claimants to attend examinations.
• Apply retroactively to any claim lodged after the bill’s introduction (a point of legal contention).

Supporters say Bill C-2 would deter late filings and ease IRB pressure. Critics warn it could bar people with genuine protection needs, complicate access to counsel and documentation, and raise fairness concerns for those who filed without knowledge of future rules.

For now, these rules are not in force.

Effect on settlement capacity: PNP and provincial needs

A separate pressure point is the 50% cut to Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocations for 2025. While not directly connected to asylum, PNP reductions affect settlement capacity because provinces use nominee allocations to steer labor and housing supports.

Consequences include:

• Reduced flexibility for provinces to grow service capacity quickly in high-demand cities.
• Calls from Ontario and Quebec for more flexible and sustained housing funds to avoid recurring emergency shelter cycles.

Front-line responses and service-provider concerns

Service providers emphasize that operational changes can make a difference:

• The RPID reduces administrative confusion and can speed up work permits.
• Community agencies report better coordination with school boards and housing offices compared with the pandemic’s early days.
• Staff burnout is a real risk; advocates call for consistent federal funding over multiple years to retain trained staff and plan supports.

Legal aid budgets are stretched; refugee law clinics often triage to focus on urgent cases (families with children, acute health needs). This ad hoc triage reflects capacity limits rather than formal policy.

The asylum process in practice (core steps)

The core steps in Canada’s asylum process in 2025 remain:

1. File the claim at a port of entry or an inland IRCC office.
2. Undergo eligibility screening by IRCC.
3. Upon promotion to eligibility review, receive the RPID (six-year validity).
4. If eligible, get a referral to the IRB.
5. Attend the IRB hearing and receive a decision.
6. If accepted, pursue permanent residence options; if refused, consider appeal or review routes where available.

People filing claims must complete the IRB’s Basis of Claim (BOC) Form, which sets out the facts and reasons for protection. The BOC is central to the case and must align with testimony and documents.

The IRB provides the BOC form and related instructions on its website: see the Refugee Protection Division’s forms page for the Basis of Claim (BOC) Form and guidance on filing deadlines and formats. The IRB forms page is available here: Refugee Protection Division Forms – IRB.

Legal clinics and licensed counsel can help complete the form, especially where trauma, language, or memory issues may affect testimony.

Practical guidance for claimants (quick checklist)

• File early and keep proof of your entry date. Timing could decide eligibility if Bill C-2 passes.
• Complete the Basis of Claim (BOC) Form carefully and truthfully; use interpreters and legal aid if needed. Access the official form here: Refugee Protection Division Forms – IRB.
• Keep your RPID safe and bring it to appointments. It is valid for six years.
• Attend all IRCC and IRB meetings on time. Missed appointments can cause delays or refusals.
• Update your address with both IRCC and the IRB immediately if you move.
• Seek mental health support if needed; many clinics and community groups offer trauma counseling.
• Keep copies of records—vaccination cards, home-country ID, police or legal documents—to help access care and schooling.
• Seek legal advice early if family reunification or Bill C-2 may affect you.

Information sources and where to check for updates

For official guidance, claimants and support workers should consult IRCC’s page on making a claim for refugee protection in Canada: IRCC – Claim refugee protection inside Canada.

IRCC updates monthly data and policy notices; checking these pages helps people plan and avoid missed deadlines.

Policy implications and outlook

The policy debate will intensify if claim totals keep rising:

• Supporters of Bill C-2 want firm eligibility rules to steady the system.
• Critics worry rigid timelines could exclude people who need protection but face barriers (trauma, language, lack of counsel).
• More IRB funding could reduce backlog, but adjudication quality must be preserved.
• Coordinated housing investments could ease shelter pressure, but rental supply and affordability remain constraints.
• Provinces seek sustained federal transfers that reflect arrival scales; Ottawa emphasizes fiscal sustainability and in-Canada transitions for permanent residence.

Key markers to watch in coming months:

• Monthly claim totals (accelerating or leveling off).
• IRB hearing output and backlog numbers (is funding shortening waits?).
• Whether Parliament passes Bill C-2 (possible drop in late and irregular-entry claims, likely legal challenges).
• BOC filing timelines and the share of decisions made without full hearings (paper-based processing).
• Municipal shelter counts, winter emergency plans, and school enrollment—these show the daily human impact.

Final takeaways

• The asylum surge exposes finite capacity across housing, services, and adjudication.
• The top-10 countries of origin reflect widespread instability and shrinking protection space globally.
• Operational improvements (RPID, coordinated services) help, but long-term funding and policy choices will matter most.
• Claimants should file early, keep records tight, attend appointments, and seek legal help where possible.
• The choices made on funding, Bill C-2, and permanent resident targets will shape how well the system manages the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Policy Shifts and Parliamentary Outlook

Bill C-2 sits at the center of the legislative agenda on asylum. Its supporters frame it as a needed reset to prevent misuse of the system by late filers or people who cross between ports of entry and delay applications. They argue clearer rules will deter risky travel and relieve pressure on the IRB, which is now handling almost 292,000 pending cases.

Opponents argue rigid timelines ignore how trauma, fear, or lack of legal advice can delay filing. They warn that broader government powers to suspend or vary documents could harm people who already face serious barriers. Because the bill would apply to claims made after its introduction, it raises fairness questions for those who filed without knowing future rules.

Beyond legislation, the reduced permanent resident targets and cut PNP allocations will ripple through settlement plans. Provinces say they need stable, multi-year funding to expand housing and services. Ottawa emphasizes “sustainability” and a shift toward in-Canada transitions for permanent residence in 2025, which may pace arrivals with housing supply but reduces overseas resettlement and slows family reunification for protected persons abroad.

Practical Guidance for People Seeking Protection

For those now in Canada, small steps help in a system under strain:

• File early and keep proof of your entry date. Timing may decide eligibility if Bill C-2 passes.
• Complete the Basis of Claim (BOC) Form carefully; use interpreters and legal aid. Access the official form here: Refugee Protection Division Forms – IRB.
• Keep your RPID safe and bring it to appointments; it is valid for six years.
• Attend all IRCC and IRB meetings on time. Missed appointments can cause serious delays or refusals.
• Update your address with both IRCC and the IRB immediately if you move.
• Seek mental health support; many organizations offer trauma counseling.

Canada’s choices this year will echo beyond 2025. If the asylum surge remains high, steady funding, faster decisions, and housing that matches arrival scales will be necessary. If Parliament tightens eligibility, fewer people may be able to file—but humanitarian questions will remain. The top 10 countries on IRCC’s list show that risks abroad are not easing; people will keep seeking safety, and Canada will face hard trade-offs about how to protect them while keeping systems stable for everyone who calls this country home.