Australia Traveller Data Not a Precise Migration Measure, Experts Say

Australia’s top statistics agency is urging caution on how traveller data is used in public debate, saying the country’s Overseas Arrivals and Departures dataset counts border crossings, not people moving to or from Australia to live. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reiterated in June 2025 that OAD should inform analysis of traveller movements such as tourism and short-term trips, but it is not a precise measure of migration or population change. The warning lands as policymakers recalibrate student and skilled visa settings and as the public weighs new planning levels for 2025.

In its latest update, the ABS explained that one person can appear multiple times in OAD if they cross the border repeatedly. That makes the dataset a strong lens on international travel trends but a poor proxy for the number of new residents. Official migration statistics are instead based on residency: a person must be in Australia for at least 12 months within a 16‑month period to be counted as a migrant. By that measure, Net Overseas Migration (NOM) for the year ending December 2024 was 340,800 people.

The next major release for 2025 is scheduled for 18 September 2025, which will provide the clearest picture of how migration is tracking this year.

Why the distinction matters

OAD figures have risen as global travel normalises, and some commentators have treated those increases as proof that migration is surging. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, conflating border movements with migration has fuelled confusion about housing demand, student numbers, and pressure on services.

Migration researchers describe OAD as an “early indicator” of possible future flows, but not the same as people settling long term. The ABS’s message is straightforward for planners, analysts, media and the public: do not use OAD as a stand-in for migration or population change.

The ABS: OAD counts trips and border crossings — not new residents.

ABS clarifies what OAD shows

The ABS’s June 2025 OAD release reported:

• 624,510 short-term visitor arrivals (+6.3% year on year)
• 914,080 short-term resident returns (+5.8%)
• Total arrivals: 1,618,090 (+6.1%)
• Total departures: 1,813,440 (+2.9%)

Key points:

• These counts reflect border crossings — travellers moving in and out — rather than net migration.
• A temporary visa holder who takes several trips can be counted multiple times as a long-term visitor arrival across the year.
• When measuring migration, the ABS applies the residency threshold (12 months in 16) and publishes NOM as the headline indicator.

Policymakers use NOM to plan schools, hospitals, housing and transport because it measures people who actually spend sustained time living in Australia.

Policy settings reshaping migration in 2025

The clarification comes amid significant policy changes:

• The 2025 permanent Migration Program is set at 185,000 places, continuing focus on skilled migration, regional development, and family reunification.
• The skilled migration quota increases to 142,400 places for 2025–26.
• A new Occupation Shortage List replaces the Skilled Occupation List for more responsive updates.
• Extra points for people who live or study in designated regional areas will rise to 15 (up from 10).

Family and program structure:

• Family stream: 52,500 places (plus a special eligibility stream of 300 places).
• From 2025–26, migration planning will move to a four-year horizon rather than annual planning, giving states, territories, employers and service providers a longer runway.

International education and student visa changes:

• From 2025, a cap limits international student enrolments to 270,000 per year, with 145,000 spots for universities.
• The government is enforcing stricter compliance to shut down “ghost colleges”.
• The student visa application fee increased by 25% to $2,000 per application as of July 2025.

Skilled visa income thresholds (from July 2025):

• Core Skills Income Threshold (CSIT): $76,515
• Specialist Skills Income Threshold (SSIT): $141,210
• Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold (TSMIT): $76,515
• Fair Work High Income Threshold (FWHIT): $183,100

Employers and applicants should check how these pay floors affect sponsorship options and eligible occupations.

Political and rights context

• Migration experts note that the health and care sectors (nursing and aged care) remain dependent on overseas talent, even as political pressure grows to reduce headline numbers.
• The Prime Minister supports reforms aimed at addressing skills shortages and preventing exploitation.
• The Opposition Leader warns that too sharp a reduction in NOM could dampen growth and risk population loss in some regions.

Human rights and procedural fairness:

• Proposed amendments to the Migration Act have prompted concerns from the Human Rights Commissioner, who warns some changes could weaken procedural fairness and breach international obligations.
• Rights groups stress that system integrity measures must not cut corners on due process for visa applicants or those facing cancellation.
• The government says its aim is to strengthen system integrity while upholding protections.

Practical implications for migrants and applicants

• Skilled pathways: More places and incentives for those ready to settle in regional Australia — but higher fees and income thresholds raise the bar.
• International students: Face capped numbers, closer quality checks on courses and providers, and higher visa fees.
• Families: Settings remain steady, though timelines depend on demand and processing capacity.

Across all groups, a short-term swell in border traffic shown by OAD should not be read as an immediate increase in permanent visas or people meeting the NOM residency test.

Guidance for researchers, media and policy planners

• Responsible reporting must separate traveller movements (OAD) from migration (NOM).
• Using OAD to claim a sharp rise in migration risks misleading readers, especially when NOM may be moving differently.
• Analysts can treat OAD as a near-real-time signal of travel intent while waiting for the official NOM data — next due 18 September 2025 — to judge 2025 migration outcomes.

Policy planners should:

1. Base housing and service forecasts on NOM rather than raw airport entry and exit volumes.
2. Tie investment decisions to the residency-based count, which captures:
   • Students who remain for a year or more
   • Workers on longer engagements
   • Families who settle permanently
3. Avoid using OAD to estimate long-term population impacts driven by residency.

Looking ahead

The move to multi-year migration planning from 2025–26 could bring more stability:

• States and territories can align infrastructure funding to expected demand over four years.
• Employers can plan recruitment and training with more confidence.
• Communities can better prepare for school places, clinics and housing supply.

However, decisions about caps and thresholds will continue to generate debate, especially amid a tight rental market and strong demand for skills.

For the public, the best way to read OAD updates is as a barometer of travel — not a scoreboard for migration. If airport arrivals jump during a holiday season, that does not mean Australia is adding residents at the same pace. The number that matters for population is NOM, and the ABS will soon deliver the next official count.

For authoritative definitions, release calendars and FAQs on what OAD measures and how it differs from migration statistics, consult the ABS page: Australian Bureau of Statistics OAD statistics.