Airlines Warn of Jet Fuel Shortage in Weeks as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise

(SPAIN) — European airlines canceled flights and warned they could run out of jet fuel within 1-3 weeks after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of disruption across Spain during Easter, half-term and the summer holiday season.

Airports and carriers serving Spain face a tightening supply picture that industry officials say is already spilling into schedules, with higher costs, capacity cuts and warnings that some airports have told airlines to prepare for no-fuel scenarios. The pressure has sharpened concerns in a country that depends heavily on summer traffic to islands and coastal destinations.

Alex Macheras, an aviation analyst, wrote on X that “a serious jet fuel shortage is less than a week away across multiple different markets,” including major European hubs. Airports Council International Europe, known as ACI Europe, delivered a similar warning in a letter to EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, saying that if Hormuz passage does not resume within three weeks, “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut across one of the most sensitive fuel arteries for aviation. The route carries 40% of Europe’s jet fuel supply, 20% of global oil and large volumes of liquefied natural gas, while military activity has tightened the market further.

Fuel prices have jumped with unusual speed. Jet fuel climbed to $1,710 (€1,490) per metric tonne, up 130% from a year earlier, while northwest European prices reached $1,573/tonne, more than double the pre-conflict level of $750. Brent crude peaked at $116 (€101) a barrel.

Airlines have already started trimming operations. Cirium data showed more than 5% of Monday flights were canceled, twice last year’s rate. United Airlines cut 5% capacity on less profitable routes, and Delta Air Lines reduced flying by 3.5% while facing $2 billion in extra fuel costs from April to June.

Spain enters that squeeze while competing with Italy, France, Greece, Germany and the UK for limited supplies. Reports have pointed to axed flights and disrupted holidays at destinations such as Mallorca, where tourism demand usually surges as temperatures rise and school breaks begin.

Spanish planners have also had to watch energy flows beyond aviation. Algeria increased LNG deliveries to Spain as a “reward,” while Tehran granted Spanish ships safe passage through Hormuz, a step that offers some shipping protection but does not remove the jet fuel threat hanging over European aviation.

ACI Europe, which represents more than 600 airports, asked Brussels to take steps before shortages spread deeper into the network. Olivier Jankovec, the group’s director-general, called for proactive EU action, including lifting jet fuel import restrictions, as airports and airlines face a market with no unified EU tracking system for production or stock levels.

The group tied the warning to Europe’s wider visitor economy. In its letter to Tzitzikostas, ACI Europe said tourism activity worth €851 billion a year and 14 million jobs would be at risk if passage through Hormuz does not resume within three weeks. That warning reaches beyond airport operations and into hotels, restaurants, package tours and local transport networks that depend on steady air service through the summer.

Recovery, airline and airport officials say, would not come quickly even if fighting eases. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, but industry sources said regular fuel supplies would still take “a number of months” to normalize after any quick political deal, leaving carriers to manage a market where shortages can persist well after headlines move on.

Pressure is already visible outside Spain. The UK faces half-term disruption as the last Middle East jet fuel shipment arrives this week. Vietnam has started rationing fuel, and four Italian airports have imposed temporary restrictions, showing how the jet fuel shortage has moved from a freight and energy story into day-to-day airline operations.

Ryanair’s suppliers have guaranteed fuel through the middle to end of May, giving one of Europe’s largest short-haul operators a limited buffer while the market remains strained. The airline has warned that risks grow if the Strait of Hormuz closure continues into May and June, a period when fares usually climb anyway as schools break up and Mediterranean routes fill.

Across Spain, that timing matters for airports that rely on dense seasonal schedules and fast aircraft turnarounds. Fuel disruptions do not need a complete outage to damage those systems; thinner margins, delayed deliveries and rationed uplift can force carriers to cancel weaker flights first, shift aircraft elsewhere or cut frequencies on routes that would usually run at full summer strength.

Major Spanish gateways are not alone in that calculation. Carriers must decide where scarce fuel brings the best return, and markets with the strongest yields or the deepest commercial importance can pull supply away from leisure-heavy routes. Spain, despite its traffic base, competes inside a crowded European queue that includes business hubs, island links and long-haul connecting airports.

Holiday demand adds another layer of strain because peaks arrive in waves rather than evenly across the season. Easter traffic can hit first, followed by half-term travel and then the long summer push, leaving little room for airports and airlines to rebuild stock if deliveries stay disrupted. Even a shortfall that lasts days can ripple through rotations for weeks.

That has made communication from carriers more important as schedules shift. Airlines are warning passengers about cancellations and capacity cuts while also signaling that higher fuel costs will feed through to ticket prices, particularly if the market remains tight into late spring. Early bookings, they say, can soften exposure to rising fares, though they do not protect against network cuts if supply deteriorates further.

Travelers with peak-season plans now face a market where flexibility carries more weight than usual. Monitoring airline notices, checking for schedule changes and weighing flexible bookings or travel insurance have become practical steps as carriers adjust to the fuel squeeze. Passengers and travel companies are also watching for any EU moves after ACI Europe’s call for action on supply measures and import rules.

Europe’s aviation system has dealt with strikes, air traffic disruption and pandemic shutdowns in recent years, but this threat comes from a different point in the chain. The problem is not a lack of demand. Aircraft are available, airports are open, and holiday traffic is building; the constraint sits in the fuel tanks that keep the network moving.

Spain’s summer industry now depends on whether tankers can move freely again through one of the world’s narrowest and most important shipping corridors. Until that happens, the warning from ACI Europe stands: “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”