(CHINA) Airlines have cancelled more than 1,900 flights between China and Japan in December 2025, wiping out close to 40% of planned services and turning a sharp political quarrel into a concrete travel shock across Northeast Asia. What began as a foreign policy dispute after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan has now turned into an aviation and tourism crisis that is reshaping winter travel plans and worrying businesses on both sides.
Scale and immediate effects on routes
The cuts affect some of the busiest and most profitable routes between the two countries, including services to Sapporo, Osaka, Nagoya, and other Japanese cities that depend heavily on tourists from mainland China. Aviation databases such as AeroRoutes and OAG show that more than 1,900 flights originally planned for December 2025 were removed from the schedule after Chinese authorities moved to limit air links.
Chinese state media report that this amounts to around 40% of all flights between 🇨🇳 China and 🇯🇵 Japan for the month — a scale of disruption that signals to airlines, travel agents, and passengers that this is not a short-lived adjustment.
What triggered the dispute
The trigger came on November 7, 2025, when Sanae Takaichi suggested that Japan could intervene militarily in a conflict over Taiwan. Beijing reacted quickly, treating the remarks as a direct challenge to its red lines on the Taiwan issue.
According to Chinese media summaries, officials in Beijing framed the comments as hostile and warned of a broad response. That response has now reached far beyond speeches and statements — into seafood imports, cultural ties, and the basic ability of people to board a plane between the two neighbors.
Government actions and travel advisories
In the weeks after Takaichi’s remarks, Chinese authorities:
- Issued a safety advisory warning citizens about travel to Japan, a step that often depresses tour bookings even without formal bans.
- Suspended imports of Japanese seafood.
- Instructed Chinese airlines to scale back flights to Japan through March 2026.
VisaVerge.com reports that instructions like these, combined with strong public safety warnings, usually lead to sharp short-term drops in outbound group tours and a slow recovery even if political ties later improve.
Which airlines and routes were hit hardest
Low-cost and regional carriers have felt the changes first and most deeply. Airlines such as Spring Airlines, Juneyao, and Shenzhen Airlines have cut capacity on China–Japan routes by roughly 36–50%, according to AeroRoutes and OAG data.
These carriers typically operate thin-margin routes that rely on high passenger loads and steady tour-group demand. Once Beijing called for cuts and Chinese travelers began cancelling trips, many of these services became impractical to operate in December 2025 — especially during midweek periods when leisure demand is weakest.
Passenger protections and airline redeployments
Chinese airlines have tried to soften the blow for passengers already holding tickets. Carriers have offered:
- Free cancellations
- Ticket changes
- Other travel waivers through December 31, 2025
This gives travelers some breathing room to rethink plans or switch destinations. Planes freed up by cuts to 🇯🇵 Japan are being redeployed to:
- Domestic routes inside 🇨🇳 China
- Third countries in Southeast Asia, where winter demand from Chinese holidaymakers is expected to remain strong
For airlines, redeployment is an attempt to reduce financial damage from a dispute they did not start but must manage day by day.
Economic impact on Japan’s winter season
On the Japanese side, the timing could hardly be worse. December marks the start of the peak winter tourism season, especially for ski resorts in Hokkaido and the Japanese Alps. These destinations had grown used to large numbers of Chinese visitors filling hotels and shops.
China is Japan’s largest source of foreign tourists. Chinese travelers are known for strong spending on shopping, food, and accommodation. Local governments and businesses that counted on a rebound in Chinese arrivals after the pandemic are now facing a sudden gap just as they were planning for a strong winter period.
Effects on travelers and travel agencies
Travel agencies in both countries are scrambling to rebook clients and adjust tour packages. For many Chinese travelers who had planned to visit Japan in December 2025 — including families visiting relatives, students on short breaks, and group tourists — the new flight landscape means:
- Longer routes
- Higher prices
- The need to cancel altogether
Some travelers are shifting to South Korea, Thailand, or domestic destinations inside China, while Japanese businesses that depend on Chinese clients are seeing booking calendars thin out and worrying about staffing and revenue.
Broader diplomatic and cultural consequences
The chill is not limited to commercial aviation and tourism. Chinese state media report that cultural exchanges and high-level meetings between the two governments have been cancelled or postponed as the row has grown.
While embassies and consulates remain open, the wider mood between the two capitals has turned more tense. There are growing concerns that technical cooperation in areas like trade, education, and student exchanges could slow or face new hurdles if the dispute continues into 2026.
Practical consequences for migrants, students, and frequent travelers
For people moving between the two countries for work, study, or family reasons, the collapse in direct flight options adds difficulty to already complex trips.
Examples of practical impacts:
- A Chinese student in Japan may now have to route through a third country, adding cost and travel time.
- Japanese businesspeople who travel frequently to mainland China face fewer choices and less flexibility.
- Even with visas in order, the core problem is fewer available seats.
Official entry and visa information remains available on the Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs visa information page: https://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/index.html
Who is most affected
The impact on immigration-related travel is uneven:
- Long-term residents with firm ties are more likely to absorb higher costs and circuitous routes to maintain jobs, studies, or family life.
- Short-term visitors (tourists and business travelers) are more likely to postpone plans.
This division matters for local communities in both countries that host foreign workers, students, and spouses. Schools, language programs, and employers may see delays as new arrivals wait for better flight options, while airports and nearby businesses lose daily-visitor income.
Political balancing and outlook
Officials in both countries face competing pressures:
- For Beijing, a tough response to Takaichi’s Taiwan comments signals a firm stance on security.
- For Tokyo, defending a prime minister’s remarks while trying to protect tourism and trade with China is politically and economically difficult.
No clear path back to normal flight levels has been outlined. The extension of Chinese instructions to airlines through March 2026 suggests the disruption will not end quickly.
Industry lesson and traveler guidance
The aviation industry — which relies on long-term planning and stable demand forecasts — is once again reminded how geopolitical friction can upend schedules without warning. Airlines use advanced booking data, government notices, and safety advisories to make decisions, but they cannot predict when political remarks will become direct orders to cut flights.
For passengers who booked months in advance, the sudden wave of cancellations in December 2025 underscores how well-planned trips can be derailed by events beyond their control.
Key takeaway: travelers should watch airline notices closely, check embassy and consular updates, and consider whether to switch destinations or wait in hope that flights between China and Japan will be restored sooner than signalled.
Tourism operators, hotel owners, and small businesses in Japan’s ski resorts and shopping districts are trying to attract visitors from other markets while hoping the political temperature cools enough for aircraft to return to usual routes. The dispute sparked by Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan comments has already reshaped December 2025 for thousands of would‑be travelers; its longer-term effect on people and businesses that link the two countries is only beginning to show.
A diplomatic dispute sparked by Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks prompted Chinese authorities to curtail air links, cancelling more than 1,900 December 2025 flights — about 40% of services. Major leisure routes to Sapporo, Osaka and Nagoya saw steep cuts; low-cost carriers reduced capacity 36–50%. Airlines offered free cancellations and redeployments to domestic and Southeast Asian routes. The measures, extended through March 2026, threaten Japan’s winter tourism and complicate travel for students, businesspeople and migrants.
