(NEW YORK CITY, NY, USA) New York City’s public schools started the 2025–26 year with 884,400 children in K–12 and preschool programs as of October 31, 2025, down 22,000 students, or 2.4%, from last year. City data show this decline amid a harsh housing market and federal enforcement shifts that are reshaping immigrant families’ plans for school.
The drop is the steepest in four years, larger than any decline since the system lost 36,000 students, or 3.8%, in 2021–22. It continues a post-pandemic slide that has pushed almost 100,000 students out of city classrooms — a cumulative 12.2% fall over the last five years overall.
Enrollment trends and causes
For years, the city’s enrollment numbers were partly sustained by new arrivals, including families who reached the United States 🇺🇸 after crossing the southern border. School leaders now say that pipeline has slowed under President Trump’s immigration crackdown and Mayor Eric Adams’s shelter closures, leaving principals scrambling to predict rosters.
During the three prior school years (2022–2024), city schools absorbed about 50,000 migrant students. That wave kept overall counts flatter than expected, according to the Department of Education. Yet administrators in newcomer programs report that fall registrations no longer arrive in bursts as winter approaches.
Citywide, officials say the affordability crisis is doing long-run damage. High rents and childcare costs push parents to New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or farther — a pattern that started before COVID-19 but sharpened after it, when remote work made moving easier for some families and landlords raised leases.
Local school impacts and examples
At Liberty High School Academy for Newcomers in Manhattan, Superintendent John Sullivan said the school is short about 200 students from recent averages. He links the gap to fewer newly arrived teenagers and to more English learners leaving school to take jobs when rent rises and cash runs out.
In the Bronx, ELLIS Prep is down 30 students from last year and 20 below projections. Those numbers would normally trigger a midyear funding clawback of $333,000, but the department waived those penalties this year, giving staff breathing room even as they watch class sizes and services.
Principal Norma Vega said the slower enrollment is real, not a paperwork lag, and she worries that smaller newcomer cohorts could lead to fewer bilingual staff and fewer after-school supports — just when students arriving with trauma need steady adults and predictable routines to stay in school through the cold months.
Budgets, funding formula, and deadlines
The preliminary enrollment numbers feed the city’s Fair Student Funding formula for 2025–26. The Department of Education noted:
- Final K–12 projections for Districts 1–32 are scheduled for October 31, 2025 for general education students.
- Final projections for students with IEPs (individualized education programs) are due December 31, 2025.
Because school budgets can swing based on fall register counts, the Department of Education said it will not impose midyear clawbacks on schools that came in below projections — a move meant to avoid sudden layoffs and program cuts during the spring term.
Table — Key enrollment figures and changes
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total students (K–12 + preschool) as of Oct 31, 2025 | 884,400 |
| Change from prior year | -22,000 (−2.4%) |
| Cumulative 5-year decline | −100,000 (~−12.2%) |
| Largest single-year recent drop (2021–22) | −36,000 (−3.8%) |
| Migrant students absorbed (2022–2024) | ~50,000 |
| Charter school students (last year) | 150,000 (up 14% since 2019) |
| Example midyear clawback avoided | $333,000 |
Effects on programs and services
The waiver on clawbacks protects some schools from immediate harm, but it does not change the deeper equation: fewer children usually mean fewer dollars over time. That can shrink arts programs, counseling, and language services that immigrant families depend on when they first arrive and need a school anchor.
Charter schools — publicly funded but independently run — have been one of the few growing sectors, rising to 150,000 students last year (up 14% since 2019). Some parents say they are voting with their feet on school quality and safety concerns.
“Every year is the same story, New York City public schools keep losing students, their budget grows, the per-pupil funding grows and we get the same mediocre results. It is a system that is failing.”
— Danyela Souza Egorov, parent and Institute fellow
Immigration, fear, and enrollment behavior
Immigration policy is now tied to local education debates because the city’s recent source of new students came from migrant shelters and housing. That stream has thinned as national crossings slowed and as more families feared contact with government offices — even when enrolling a child is supposed to be safe.
School staff say the fear is not abstract: in some households, parents worry that sharing an address, a name, or a birth record could draw attention to relatives without lawful status. Federal law guarantees free public education for children regardless of immigration status, and schools cite this at intake.
The Department of Education points families to city enrollment pages and to federal privacy rules that limit what schools can share, but advocates say mixed messages from Washington and immigration raids can keep parents away — especially when adults have active cases and must report to immigration officers as part of their conditions.
According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, local institutions like schools and hospitals often feel immigration shifts first because they see people before national data catches up. New York City’s enrollment numbers are becoming an early warning that the slowdown is not only about patrol statistics but about life in neighborhoods.
City politics, shelter policy, and longer-term concerns
The politics are shifting at City Hall. Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is set to take office as the city weighs budget trade-offs, and education officials privately acknowledge that smaller schools can become targets for consolidation when enrollments fall — even if closures hit immigrant communities that rely on nearby programs most.
Adams’s decision to close many emergency migrant shelters reduced one path into the school system, educators said. Families who historically registered children as soon as they arrived via shelter placements are now more likely to disappear into informal arrangements or leave the city entirely.
At the same time, families who stay face the city’s price shocks. School counselors report students:
- Doubling up with relatives
- Switching boroughs midyear
- Missing days when subway fare or childcare for younger siblings takes priority
These pressures can push teenagers toward work and away from graduation plans.
Practical guidance for families and schools
Officials stress that students do not need to prove citizenship to attend. City agencies advise families to keep copies of leases, utility bills, and identity papers in case they must re-enroll after a move, but advocates note the paperwork burden hits newcomers hardest when they are already in crisis.
Create a ready-to-go document kit: lease, utility bills, IDs, and key contact info. When moving or re-enrolling, bring these copies to speed up the intake process and reduce delays for your child.
For parents seeking official guidance, the city posts enrollment and registration rules through the exact Department of Education site below (multilingual support and contacts included):
Immigration lawyers also remind families that school records are generally separate from federal immigration files unless a court order demands otherwise — a point often reiterated in community meetings.
What educators are doing and closing note
Educators say they are trying to hold on to staff while they wait to see whether the federal stance changes. The Trump immigration crackdown has already changed the tone in waiting rooms and parent-teacher conferences, where families now ask if sharing a phone number could put them at risk later on.
With NYC public school enrollment sliding, even a small shift in migration or housing can ripple through classrooms. Principals like Sullivan and Vega say they will keep recruiting students door to door, because every child they keep enrolled helps protect budgets and keeps programs open for families still here.
Key warning: smaller cohorts can mean fewer services over time — bilingual staff reductions, fewer after-school programs, and constrained counseling — just when vulnerable newcomer students most need stability.
NYC’s public school enrollment fell to 884,400 as of Oct. 31, 2025, a 22,000 (2.4%) decline driven by rising housing costs and reduced migrant arrivals amid federal enforcement and shelter closures. The drop is the steepest in four years and continues a five-year, 12.2% cumulative fall. Newcomer programs face smaller cohorts, risking bilingual staff and services. The DOE will waive midyear clawbacks to prevent immediate layoffs while urging families to use enrollment resources and stressing education access regardless of immigration status.
